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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


yoda
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3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gfs further south with the post Xmas energy . Actually a west ridge this run as well forming at 168

The primary comes across too far north. It’s that way across all guidance. Unless that changes (it could) it’s inevitably a miller b screw job. We could eeek out some snow but it’s the setup where we watch north of us cash in. However, a bombing system the 28 helps the setup after. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

And a low moving from Dubuque to Cincinnati and then reforming off Va Beach. Never seen that before lol

It happens in extreme blocking. I’ve seen analogs like that. But it’s usually a fail for our area. Can’t say 100% sometimes crazy stuff happens but we want a the primary to be bottoming out at our latitude or lower to have a better chance. 

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7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Improved over the last 2 runs . Primary further south . West ridging is new . Curious to see the 50/50 local as we near . Still oodles of time :popcorn:

 

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Remember last weeks storm looked like a Miller B at range. Was taking the primary through the Midwest with a transfer to Norfolk area. 

Yes that could change but I think we need to see it move that way in the next 24 hours. We’re getting to that range where the globals have been picking up on the general synoptic setups. We’re right at the lead time where the primary shifted south on guidance opening up the opportunity last week.   I’m not sold on any solution yet. But it looks like there are possibly 4 waves between Dec 28-Jan 5 with blocking setup. They will all affect one another. Spacing and if they amplify into the 50/50 space.  I don’t have a strong feel for how the specifics play out but I do think we would be incredibly unlucky to come out of that period without one decent snowfall. We can pick on the minor imperfections but fact is the look is plenty good enough to snow. Excellent AO/NAO. Strong STJ. Mediocre PAC. That should be good enough to get some snow imo. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Yes that could change but I think we need to see it move that way in the next 24 hours. We’re getting to that range where the globals have been picking up on the general synoptic setups. We’re right at the lead time where the primary shifted south on guidance opening up the opportunity last week.   I’m not sold on any solution yet. But it looks like there are possibly 4 waves between Dec 28-Jan 5 with blocking setup. They will all affect one another. Spacing and if they amplify into the 50/50 space.  I don’t have a strong feel for how the specifics play out but I do think we would be incredibly unlucky to come out of that period without one decent snowfall. We can pick on the minor imperfections but fact is the look is plenty good enough to snow. Excellent AO/NAO. Strong STJ. Mediocre PAC. That should be good enough to get some snow imo. 

Very true, and thanks for pointing this out.  It's definitely one of the better setups we've had in some time it seems (though I won't say "since '96" or any other particular year, hahaha!).   It will be complicated, the interaction of the various waves during that period, and not necessarily "ideal" (whatever that might be).  So yeah, hopefully we'll come out of that time frame with at least one decent snow and avoid the incredible bad luck of getting shut out!

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1 hour ago, anotherman said:

DT posted about the pattern reminding him of '96.

There is nothing wrong with comparing the upcoming pattern to the HECs years... nothing wrong with it all.. It is frustrating when people get sarcastic about it.. and mock people who make those comparisons.. 

We are just trying to have some fun and fantasize about snow.

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That post-Christmas look is what you want with the shortwave parade being depicted. Storms forced underneath with high frequency. It would be tough to get anything north of 40N with a storm track. There might be a sneaky event in there with so many pulses running around. 100% guarantee that not all shortwaves for the extended are even modeled either. I like the chances of some kind of winter precip with that 5H setup. 

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

SO. MANY. SHORTWAVES.

Going to be a volatile forecast post-Xmas I expect.

"volatile", "complicated"   Aren't those adjectives that tend to not work out so well for Mid-atlantic area?  Or is it more of the situation where if we keep getting lots of chances, one of them is bound to work out?

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3 minutes ago, gopper said:

"volatile", "complicated"   Aren't those adjectives that tend to not work out so well for Mid-atlantic area?  Or is it more of the situation where if we keep getting lots of chances, one of them is bound to work out?

Gotta be on the playing field to have a chance ... it's a simple law of percentages: more chances, higher probability that something might pop

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1 hour ago, poolz1 said:

CMC with a good look at the end of the run...

45RXRVN.png

 

Kind of knit picking here, but again, that blocking (as modeled) is too far east for us to get the amplification we need. It will change though so that’s good lol

 

eta: and also close to a 50/50 but it’s not connected. Partly due to the position of blocking in East-Greenland 

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