December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[IronTy]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

My WAG is our best chance for some legit winter will be mid Jan onward, and that is at least partially dependent on the Nina weakening and a transition to a -EPO. Not saying we don't see some brief help in the NA at times, but to expect a persistent -AO/NAO seems like fools gold for a multitude of reasons.

Somebody needs to add Bastardi's "Delayed, not denied" to the mid Atlantic winter bingo board.  

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

Somebody needs to add Bastardi's "Delayed, not denied" to the mid Atlantic winter bingo board.  

Backloaded is how we roll here pretty much every winter, when we do actually have a winter, that is.

[frd]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If the NAO is positive we would need the Epo ridge to be centered into western Canada and that is not happening in a healthy Nina.  

As you know the Nina coupling is only getting stronger. Whether this lends further support to the weeklies is uncertain.   

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If it does weaken perhaps we get some epo help later in winter. 

 I have read that the lag effect rules this possibility out. I respect what DT has stated, however, at least several mets and pros that I follow have stated by the time the Nina weakens and works it way into the atmospheric response we will be exiting our snow climo.   

I know you know all this,  but I believe some have hopes set too high for a Nina year. But, looking at the weather acorss the country in 2020 with high precip events, extreme weather, etc. if there was every a winter to present a blizzard within this current base state, it is this winter.  

[osfan24]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

As you know the Nina coupling is only getting stronger. Whether this lends further support to the weeklies is uncertain.   

 I have read that the lag effect rules this possibility out. I respect what DT has stated, however, at least several mets and pros that I follow have stated by the time the Nina weakens and works it way into the atmospheric response we will be exiting our snow climo.   

I know you know all this,  but I believe some have hopes set too high for a Nina year. But, looking at the weather acorss the country in 2020 with high precip events, extreme weather, etc. if there was every a winter to present a blizzard within this current base state, it is this winter.  

I tend to agree with this. And I know everyone says March is really becoming a true winter month around here recently, but we've tried these backloaded winters where things improve in late February and March and the lag effect means it's too little, too late, and often the pattern doesn't actually truly turn into something good until it's April.

[poolz1]

1 hour ago, Snowchaser said:

It's a long shot... But we have something to watch around 15th

 

I thought 18z was closer to something minor/mod.  A long shot but its the closest thing we got right now.  Nothing earth shattering here but some energy left behind and therefore a better separation of sw's. Plenty wrong with this frame but plenty of time also. A move in the right direction, imo. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I thought 18z was closer to something minor/mod.  A long shot but its the closest thing we got right now.  Nothing earth shattering here but some energy left behind and therefore a better separation of sw's. Plenty wrong with this frame but plenty of time also. A move in the right direction, imo. 

Lots of indecision in the ns. Gonna probably be a multitude of solutions for a day or two 

[poolz1]

6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Lots of indecision in the ns. Gonna probably be a multitude of solutions for a day or two 

Any west coast ridging being shoved east head over heels is like deja vu all over again from the past few winters.  Little amplification and sw slides off the se coast...gives credence to what the op spit out.  Gonna be like pulling teeth but it is what it is... 

[DTWXRISK]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s total garbage start to finish. Any slight pac improvement is offset by the fact we lose the Atlantic by then.  A WPO ridge or even a western epo ridge won’t do us any good if the NAO is positive. If the NAO is positive we would need the Epo ridge to be centered into western Canada and that is not happening in a healthy Nina.  
 

2017 and 2018 were extremely weak Nina’s (bordering on cold neutral at times).  Very different effect. Until/unless this current Nina weakens below -1 we probably are not getting any pac help and will need a combo of a slightly less god awful period (call it serviceable) and a LOT of Atlantic help. By that I don’t mean just some weak ridging but a full scale west based NAO block with stable 50/50. 
 

And yes I know how unlikely that is given recent history but don’t shoot the messenger. That’s what history of moderate to strong Nina’s say. You can barely even find minor events in moderate or stronger Nina’s without a lot of Atlantic help.  If it does weaken perhaps we get some epo help later in winter. 

.. we  are NOT in strong La Nina.   
WE have NOT been in a  strong La Nina 
and  we  will NOT  be  in a strong La Nina  and all of the model  data  shows  rapidd  weakening  of the La Nina  by   early Jan

 it doesnt matter how many times you say it.. Its wrong

That’s what history of moderate to strong Nina’s say.

[DTWXRISK]

44 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Lots of indecision in the ns. Gonna probably be a multitude of solutions for a day or two 

 there is my  dec 14 system  ... not sure if its  12/14  or  12./16

[PivotPoint]

56 minutes ago, DTWXRISK said:

.. we  are NOT in strong La Nina.   
WE have NOT been in a  strong La Nina 
and  we  will NOT  be  in a strong La Nina  and all of the model  data  shows  rapidd  weakening  of the La Nina  by   early Jan

 it doesnt matter how many times you say it.. Its wrong

That’s what history of moderate to strong Nina’s say.

Are there any decent analog years for weak Nina flipped to neutral/ weak nino?

Like, what’s our goal posts here?

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Until/unless this current Nina weakens below -1 we probably are not getting any pac help and will need a combo of a slightly less god awful period (call it serviceable) and a LOT of Atlantic help. By that I don’t mean just some weak ridging but a full scale west based NAO block with stable 50/50. 
 

And yes I know how unlikely that is given recent history but don’t shoot the messenger. That’s what history of moderate to strong Nina’s say. You can barely even find minor events in moderate or stronger Nina’s without a lot of Atlantic help.  If it does weaken perhaps we get some epo help later in winter. 

 

54 minutes ago, DTWXRISK said:

.. we  are NOT in strong La Nina.   
WE have NOT been in a  strong La Nina 
and  we  will NOT  be  in a strong La Nina  and all of the model  data  shows  rapidd  weakening  of the La Nina  by   early Jan

 it doesnt matter how many times you say it.. Its wrong

That’s what history of moderate to strong Nina’s say.

I didn't say we were in a strong nina...I said "moderate to strong".  That includes moderate which is what we are in. And up top I indicated imo we will have a better chance of pacific help if the enso drops back above -1 (weak nina).  The weekly enso bottomed out at about -1.5 a few weeks ago and the tri monthlies will likely bottom out at -1.3 depending on what the next few weeks do.  That puts it right in the middle of a moderate nina.  Sorry if the way I worded it implied I was saying we were in a strong nina.   I was lumping moderate and strong nina's together in that post to differentiate them from some of the comps that were being throw around to weak nina's which I have found have a much different atmospheric response.  As you have noted...if we can get the nina back to weak later in winter we have a much better chance of cold/snow.  I was just stating that until then...while the nina is still having a corresponding moderate response on the pattern we are unlikely to get the type of pacific pattern we would need absent any help on the atlantic side.  Once the enso gets into weak nina territory...maybe we do.  But that is still a little ways out there...I was talking about the more foreseeable future.  

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

Are there any decent analog years for weak Nina flipped to neutral/ weak nino?

Like, what’s our goal posts here?

1955/56 and 2011/12 are the two best examples of somewhat healthy nina's that collapsed rapidly to weak status during winter.  2011/12 was a little weaker of a peak and 1956 made it into strong nina category.  2011/12 it did us absolutely no good.  1956 we did turn cold and snowier in the mid atlantic region in March.  Of course there are other variables you have to control for and a sample size of 2 is kinda small to draw conclusions.  

[PivotPoint]

Nina talk aside..

I like how multiple runs I see the PV building strength then being disrupted. If you look around the 18th, the gfs has strengthen PV and WAR. The WAR isn’t in the most ideal spot but if you pan forward to the 20/21st, the PV sends a lobe of cold air diving SE. We seem to be losing our ridging our west (stupid AK vortex needs take a vacation).

I like the look because the WAR does some blocking while cold air builds in central Canada. If we can get a positive/neutral PNA, I think the timing of a cutter could allow for downstream timing to work in our favor... assuming there’s even a s/w there to do anything...

[PivotPoint]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

1955/56 and 2011/12 are the two best examples of somewhat healthy nina's that collapsed rapidly to weak status during winter.  2011/12 was a little weaker of a peak and 1956 made it into strong nina category.  2011/12 it did us absolutely no good.  1956 we did turn cold and snowier in the mid atlantic region in March.  Of course there are other variables you have to control for and a sample size of 2 is kinda small to draw conclusions.  

Thanks. Either way my moving out of La Niña is the way to go.. but yea, small sample size 

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

Nina talk aside..

I like how multiple runs I see the PV building strength then being disrupted. If you look around the 18th, the gfs has strengthen PV and WAR. The WAR isn’t in the most ideal spot but if you pan forward to the 20/21st, the PV sends a lobe of cold air diving SE. We seem to be losing our ridging our west (stupid AK vortex needs take a vacation).

I like the look because the WAR does some blocking while cold air builds in central Canada. If we can’t get a positive/neutral PNA, I think the timing of a cutter could allow for downstream timing to work in our favor... assuming there’s even a s/w there to do anything...

Just keep those higher heights over Greenland all winter and we will have our chances. At least the NS will get buckled a few times and get cold air into our area. There can be no snow without it. 

[Ji]

Seeing the models tonight....nothing but frustration. I've really had it with this winter

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Seeing the models tonight....nothing but frustration. I've really had it with this winter

What were your expectations? 

[ravensrule]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What were your expectations? 

14 feet of snow. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

14 feet of snow. 

That's a hell of a party

[Maestrobjwa]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What were your expectations? 

I find that lower expectations don't completely erase disappointment with an outcome. Last winter's futility still sucked even when it was clear that it was a no-go. However...more level-headed expectations do help fight off wild emotional swings. With this being a nina...I'm trying to just take it as it comes with that in mind (yeah I'm still hopin' for somethin' deep down, lol)

[Ji]

What were your expectations? 

Even like a fantasy storm that last for 2 runs would be ok

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I find that lower expectations don't completely erase disappointment with an outcome. Last winter's futility still sucked even when it was clear that it was a no-go. However...more level-headed expectations do help fight off wild emotional swings. With this being a nina...I'm trying to just take it as it comes with that in mind (yeah I'm still hopin' for somethin' deep down, lol)

yea but we are only 1 week in to a winter that most expected to be pretty bad for snow.  So to be boiling over already seems a bit much.  I do get the frustration...I want it to snow bad also...but so far things are about what I expected, which is to say, not much

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What were your expectations? 

Even like a fantasy storm that last for 2 runs would be ok

well the models are getting better... sucky pattern = no fantasy storms

[Albedoman]

for my 30 years of forecasting snow in eastern PA,  I can firmly tell you historically that in a dying La Nina pattern that nothing will come to fruition as far as a major snow event until around Martin Luther Kings day- then watch out out. I expect to see decent chances of several  4-6 inch snowfall events before and after just after  Christmas and then the snow bucket will be buried  after 1/18/202.   The pattern really sucks right now with the weak  cold shots not aligning with the lp formation along the eastern seaboard. Cold dry warm rain is normal for this time of the year.  Need a few strong clippers to keep the cold air in place and for gods sakes we need to get the lake effect snow machine going to even have a decent chance. So far that is even  pitiful too with no snow covering to keep the cold air in place from warming so much before going over the Apps. Mts. This pattern will be ripe for a major ice storm come in January before the pattern changes too. 

[Solution Man]

Euro trying to pop something at 168, hoping

 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Euro trying to pop something at 168, hoping

 

Something to watch in further runs but this run is warm. 

[yoda]

8 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Euro trying to pop something at 168, hoping

 

Looks like the phase or capture was too late... but that was a warm run anyway - as in for that possible system.  Looks like an semi cold blast comes Days 9 and 10 though in the midwest 

[aldie 22]

6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

What were your expectations? 

He just cut and pasted that from every year since 2004

[CAPE]

42 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I sure didn't mind seeing 2 strong coastals on the Euro . The 2nd one was real close to a white one . Nice active pattern remains 

Yeah the 15th looks semi interesting, but not much cold air around.

The 17-18th window has plenty of shortwave action and it would be colder, so that may be more realistic if we can get things to come together in time. Verbatim its too late on the 0z run and NE gets snowed on again.

 

[osfan24]

GFS is quite active as well, but it doesn't really help how active these models are if there is no cold air.