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December 2020 Discussion

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Full fledged ice storm on the 6z EPS in central and northern New England. 

Phin will be angry to miss that.

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That weekend deal is coming in flatter and flatter each run....the arctic does kind of support stuff trending colder with that...lot of blocking up there right now, so wouldn't be surprised to see further PV lobe pushes south.

Below is the 06z EPS at 96 hours. I marked the ridges/blocks in the arctic/subarctic regions that will be important and then the PV lobe that may impact any potential for colder solutions.....we want to force that a bit further south. It has trended steadily south in the past 4 or 5 runs.

 

Dec8_06zEPS96.png

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

That weekend deal is coming in flatter and flatter each run....the arctic does kind of support stuff trending colder with that...lot of blocking up there right now, so wouldn't be surprised to see further PV lobe pushes south.

Below is the 06z EPS at 96 hours. I marked the ridges/blocks in the arctic/subarctic regions that will be important and then the PV lobe that may impact any potential for colder solutions.....we want to force that a bit further south. It has trended steadily south in the past 4 or 5 runs.

 

Dec8_06zEPS96.png

I will be in MD, but the weekend deal on the Euro looks more like snow to ice to snow here now versus a driving rainstorm. Some sleet and ZR would definitely create a pack glacier.

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Just now, PhineasC said:

I will be in MD, but the weekend deal on the Euro looks more like snow to ice to snow here now versus a driving rainstorm. Some sleet and ZR would definitely create a pack glacier.

I fully expect NNE to be locked into the cold at the surface in this one now....the only question iswhether the cold is deep enough so that it is more snow versus more sleet/ZR.

Maybe the trend will reverse, but we've seen this movie many times. It will keep trending colder before it does the classic SWFE bump back north inside of 48 or 60 hours.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I fully expect NNE to be locked into the cold at the surface in this one now....the only question iswhether the cold is deep enough so that it is more snow versus more sleet/ZR.

Maybe the trend will reverse, but we've seen this movie many times. It will keep trending colder before it does the classic SWFE bump back north inside of 48 or 60 hours.

Yea....expect this to be the theme of December. People are expecting 50's and driving rains wondering what happened once a winter storm is imminent.

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55 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm still meh on the long range. Might be a window near mid month for 1-2 events to break right...but nothing really imminent or eye opening. Optimistic view is to hope something is timed right,  but reality is to also accept it may stink. Not a fan of the EPS look.

At least with a +NAO we would pop a SE ridge and warm up. This is a cold rain look for SNE. Terrible.

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Just now, EastonSN+ said:

At least with a +NAO we would pop a SE ridge and warm up. This is a cold rain look for SNE. Terrible.

Tough to say with that amount of detail. Overall to me is sort of lousy, but "sort of lousy" looks can sometimes break right. It's basically being on the fence. 

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21 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

At least with a +NAO we would pop a SE ridge and warm up. This is a cold rain look for SNE. Terrible.

Ya’ if it’s gon’ rain I’d rather it be warm.  Nobody wants 35° rain. 

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1-2 fell in the Berks this morning. Wasn't forecasted and isn't even showing up on radar. Must be some very localized upslope.

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4 minutes ago, RDRY said:

1-2 fell in the Berks this morning. Wasn't forecasted and isn't even showing up on radar. Must be some very localized upslope.

Interesting.  I have not seen a flake or drop here. 

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38 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Interesting.  I have not seen a flake or drop here. 

Still some flurries (NWS calling it "inversion" precip). Kind of funny all the focus on that big storm, with zero accumulations here. Then, nothing forecasted, and a couple inches.

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59 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If there’s going to be an icestorm ORH will be in the thick of it . Iron clad 

Maybe.  The didn't get much ice on Jan 8-9, 1998.

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Comparing 6z Euro at 90 and 0z Euro at 96, the storm in the Midwest is slightly flatter and the boundary layer is further south. This would be good for New England.

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10 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Maybe.  The didn't get much ice on Jan 8-9, 1998.

The only reports from the 1998 ice storm were west of ORH, Paxton north through Ashby. 

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

The only reports from the 1998 ice storm were west of ORH, Paxton north through Ashby. 

I can confirm major ice at Wachusett in that and my life literally flashing before my eyes as I lost control while skiing. Hit a patch of dirt and lit up the slope in orange from the sparks off  my skis. True story lol. 

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