donsutherland1 Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 9 hours ago, qg_omega said: I didn’t see any forecast with a 36 degree high for NYC today, very impressive The cold was impressive. The high wasn’t far off the daily record low minimum temperature, but now the cold air is departing rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 23 here currently. Cold definitely overperformed. LOL as always at the NYC heat island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 Just now, jm1220 said: 23 here currently. Cold definitely overperformed. LOL as always at the NYC heat island. Yup my low here was 29 and was pretty stuck there from about 9pm and on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 23 was my low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 21.7 in Muttontown & 22.6 in Syosset for the morning low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 Low of 24 here. First 20’s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uniblab Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 24 for the low, Staten Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 yesterday's final split - 37 /24 nearby TTN also 37 degrees for a high yesterday, that is tied for the 4th coldest max on the date, coldest since 1959 22 degrees this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 20.7 this morning. The Commack cold zone continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 19, 2020 Author Share Posted November 19, 2020 Overnight low made it down to 25 here. Current temp 35 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 1 hour ago, psv88 said: 20.7 this morning. The Commack cold zone continues 21° South Commack 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 20.1, so close to teens! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 This has to be the best radiational cooling that we have seen in such a warm November. ISP just tied the record low for 2 consecutive days. Notice how much higher the max departure than the min. ISP had 3 consecutive daily record highs earlier this month. Max...+5.1 Min...+1.6 Avg...+3.3 11/18 24 in 2020 24 in 2014 25 in 2017+ 11/19 22 in 2020 22 in 2014 23 in 1997 11/7 74 in 2020 67 in 1975 67 in 1971 11/8 76 in 2020 70 in 2011 68 in 1975 11/9 74 in 2020 73 in 1975 71 in 1994 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 23 minutes ago, bluewave said: This has to be the best radiational cooling that we have seen in such a warm November. ISP just tied the record low for 2 consecutive days. Notice how much higher the max departure than the min. ISP had 3 consecutive daily record highs earlier this month. Max...+5.1 Min...+1.6 Avg...+3.3 11/18 24 in 2020 24 in 2014 25 in 2017+ 11/19 22 in 2020 22 in 2014 23 in 1997 11/7 74 in 2020 67 in 1975 67 in 1971 11/8 76 in 2020 70 in 2011 68 in 1975 11/9 74 in 2020 73 in 1975 71 in 1994 The air must be very dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 more westerly than southerly flow this month and the west is in a drought 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 1 hour ago, psv88 said: The air must be very dry. Yeah, drier air and light winds on the mornings with the best radiational cooling. Even when we had the record highs earlier in the month, the diurnal temperature range was close to the high desert of Nevada in September. We had several days with light winds, high pressure, lower dew points, and low air quality. This is what happens with the record 500mb ridging this month over the area. Also notice how strong the polar vortex has been in the Arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 22 for a low this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 Low was 22 here as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 Hit 24 between 5 and 6 am for the low this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 Near record 30 hr November temperature jump coming for Friday. Places that were in the low 20s this morning will be near 60° Friday afternoon. So a 35 to 40° temperature rise. KISP GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 11/19/2020 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 FRI 20| SAT 21| SUN 22| MON 23| TUE 24| WED 25| THU 26|FRI CLIMO N/X 39 59| 45 61| 39 54| 50 58| 34 46| 35 58| 47 57| 41 34 50 https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=ISP&hours=30&month=nov&dir=warm&dpi=100&_fmt=png 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 43 minutes ago, bluewave said: Near record 30 hr November temperature jump coming for Friday. Places that were in the low 20s this morning will be near 60° Friday afternoon. So a 35 to 40° temperature rise. KISP GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 11/19/2020 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 FRI 20| SAT 21| SUN 22| MON 23| TUE 24| WED 25| THU 26|FRI CLIMO N/X 39 59| 45 61| 39 54| 50 58| 34 46| 35 58| 47 57| 41 34 50 https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=ISP&hours=30&month=nov&dir=warm&dpi=100&_fmt=png Didn't you guys get in on those big temp swings in the same day last week? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 28 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Didn't you guys get in on those big temp swings in the same day last week? Thanks for reminding me to run the 6 hr temperature rise numbers. That’s when we had a diurnal range similar to the high desert in Nevada during September. It tied the 6 hr biggest November temperature jump. There was a 44° low between hours with a total jump of 32°. But the data plotter below only works with the hourly temperatures. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 11 minutes ago, bluewave said: Thanks for reminding me to run the 6 hr temperature rise numbers. That’s when we had a diurnal range similar to the high desert in Nevada during September. It tied the 6 hr biggest November temperature jump. There was a 44° low between hours with a total jump of 32°. But the data plotter below only works with the hourly temperatures. Up here between 11/4-11/10 the diurnal range was 36-40 with the exception of 11/6 when it was only 33, pretty impressive for around here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 11 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Up here between 11/4-11/10 the diurnal range was 36-40 with the exception of 11/6 when it was only 33, pretty impressive for around here. Yeah, similar to Elko, Nevada in late September. Almanac for Elko Area, NV (ThreadEx) September 27, 2020 Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest Max Temperature 72 74 91 in 2010 43 in 1923 Min Temperature 34 35 51 in 1989 13 in 1889 Avg Temperature 53.0 54.2 67.5 in 1989 38.0 in 1999 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 On 11/17/2020 at 9:44 AM, bluewave said: This has to have been the hardest decade on record for trees around the region. It seems to have started out with the March 2010 windstorm. This was followed by the NYC macroburst and tornado in September 2010. Next was the early snowstorm in October 2011 which lead to all the power outages. Irene came next in August 2011 followed by Sandy in October 2012. Then the numerous blizzards with downed trees at times from 2013 to 2018. Along with the fall and spring storms with high wind warnings. Out of season severe in recent years like this fall and also 2018. We also saw that bow echo in June 2019 take down numerous trees across Suffolk. Isaias caused the extensive tree damage and power outages this summer. The 17 year ciccadas finished off 3 large old oak trees and a plum tree IMBY. They survived a few years but the damage was done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 50/25 max/min today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 47/24 here today. Still at 47, hours after sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Temperatures rebounded into the upper 40s after a cold start with most locations seeing low temperatures in the 20s and even teens. Most of the remaining days this month could see readings near or above normal with some short-lived cool shots possible. One such cool shot is likely early next week. December could see above to perhaps much above normal temperatures redevelop during the first week of the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.44°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through the winter. The SOI was +20.17. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.882. On November 18 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.555 (RMM). The November 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.682. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through at least November 25. The lack of such warming could favor the gradual strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. A strong polar vortex, which is favored on the long-range guidance, could have implications for the opening of meteorological winter. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 10/11 (91%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is very likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region. The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.0°. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 GEFS Extended has the following to offer: Chance of Snow on Dec. 03, 08, 17-----for a total of 3". High in the 60's on the 13th and to greet Winter itself-----on the 21st. Really the first time I am seeing snow from this output-----it does cover over 30 days, so something better happen. Jan. 18 would mark one full year w/o measurable snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 On 11/16/2020 at 11:29 AM, nycwinter said: no connection between hurricane lota and the windy day in nyc... if that is what you are saying.... lol I know. I was just commenting that it's an extremely windy with a lot of volatile weather going on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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