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November 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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On 10/29/2020 at 12:39 PM, winterwx21 said:

Really warm pattern starting next thursday. We might not be done with 70 degrees, but mid 60s at least.

The last several years the trend has been for any oool/cold period to be soon followed by a well above average temp pattern that lasts for awhile.  November likely ends up above avg temp wise and perhaps well above avg. 

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6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

1st half mild with a transition to colder 2nd half looks probable imo.

That is when we really start wanting it to get colder anyway. I always want a snowy winter and cold holiday season, but it wouldn’t be the worst thing this year to have a mild winter if it helps with COVID.

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@donsutherland1 Looks like ENSO region 3.4 has crossed the threshold into “strong” territory. Now -1.6C. I guess the models that were showing this happening in November and December back in late August/early September weren’t so crazy after all. This La Niña isn’t playing around, it’s fully coupled with the atmosphere now. nino34.png

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

@donsutherland1 Looks like ENSO region 3.4 has crossed the threshold into “strong” territory. Now -1.6C. I guess the models that were showing this happening in November and December back in late August/early September weren’t so crazy after all. This La Niña isn’t playing around, it’s fully coupled with the atmosphere now. nino34.png

The CFSv2 has so far been closer on the progression of the La Niña than some of the other guidance. October will likely have a Region 3.4 anomaly of -1.5 C to -1.3 C. November and December should have even colder anomalies if much of the guidance is reasonably accurate as to the progression. That could result in a tri-monthly figure of -1.5 C or below.

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22 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The CFSv2 has so far been closer on the progression of the La Niña than some of the other guidance. October will likely have a Region 3.4 anomaly of -1.5 C to -1.3 C. November and December should have even colder anomalies if much of the guidance is reasonably accurate as to the progression. That could result in a tri-monthly figure of -1.5 C or below.

Yes, this may actually be the strongest Niña we’ve seen since ‘88-‘89 when all is said and done, if some of these forecasts are correct. I believe the UKMET has this thing peaking at -2.0C trimonthly. If that’s correct, it would be in the same category as ‘73-‘74

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It looks like the mjo heading into phase 8 in early November could mute the warm-up or at least the warm-up won't last as long as guidance suggest. I'm hearing that the mjo may frequently be in Phase 8 1 and 2 this winter instead of the maritime continent don't know if it's going to be a big player this year with such a strong La Nina

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Well,  the GFS has the period Nov. 05-12, 8 days, all in the 60's.        The mean for the period is 58*, or +9.       Given this is the GFS---the anomaly is probably going to be closer to +3, from this vantage point.

Is the above going to be worth the wait?:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2020103112&fh=276

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13 hours ago, binbisso said:

It looks like the mjo heading into phase 8 in early November could mute the warm-up or at least the warm-up won't last as long as guidance suggest. I'm hearing that the mjo may frequently be in Phase 8 1 and 2 this winter instead of the maritime continent don't know if it's going to be a big player this year with such a strong La Nina

Whoever told you that the MJO is going to be in phase 8, 1, 2 this winter is wishcasting. Phases 3 through 6 are the ones that will be favored 

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The first 8 days of November are averaging 54degs.       Making it 49degs., or -2.0.   

GFS now has 11 straight 60-Degree Days---Nov. 05 to Nov.15.      Keeps getting better!     Prepare to be bored barring a visit by a Greek Letter.      500mb Heights swing 600m in 6 days, Nov. 02 to Nov. 08---near records at both ends.       Theoretical High T next Sunday is 80*+!     

Tampa, FL does it again.      31st. consecutive month w/o a BN one.

50*(60%RH) at 6am(really 5am.)   51* at 7am.      53*(64%RH) by 9pm.        55* at 10am.         55*(75%RH) by Noon, with drizzle.      55*(95%RH) by 6pm.

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I like the idea of a few flurries around Monday morning - whether NYC CP ASOS sees--doubtful.  Measurable on some of the I84 high terrain likely. mPing.

Wind gusts Monday more commonly 35-40 MPH with isolated 50 MPH and a few associated power outages.  Not quite convened we'll grab up to 825MB at 15z-16z Monday to transfer 45-50kt... so have not started a topic. Richardson # and timing of cold core passage at that time look favorable but NAM3k sounding looks like it's not quite as steep above 9000MB and so am hesitant to topic what might not be much of a damage event. Maybe guidance will change my mind late today... or if OKX issues a wind advisory, then I'll topic.  For now, I think the best chance of damaging wind Monday morning is to the west and north of NYC. 

fwiw... late this afternoon, there might be an isolated gust 45 MPH e LI in showers. I did see the secondary line crossing the interior late today but not much wind flagged there...at least not yet. Maybe some hail?

 

At 7A EST, have added this mean gust graphic in MPH from the SPC HREF.  Not as impressive as I'd like to see. This is for 15z Monday (10AM). 

Screen_Shot_2020-11-01_at_6_57.05_AM.png

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The last 3 Novembers in NYC were colder than average. But this year is starting out differently. The previous 3 years began the month warm and shifted colder by the 2nd week of the month. This year the coldest days for a while will be on the 2nd 3rd with a rebound back to the mild 60s. So it will be interesting to see if this means that we will finally see a milder than normal November.

Nov....EWR...NYC...LGA

2019...-4.0....-3.8.....-3.7

2018...-3.1....-3.3....-2.7

2017...-.0.7....-1.1....-0.3

KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  11/01/2020  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 SUN  01| MON 02| TUE 03| WED 04| THU 05| FRI 06| SAT 07| SUN 08 CLIMO
 X/N  56| 36  45| 39  51| 39  57| 51  67| 55  68| 56  68| 59  66 42 56


AE5C017D-5E6D-4690-BDF7-7CD741FD5341.thumb.png.fcb5c571c318453b90a38ed2322f25cb.png

870C50C3-B386-464E-9E67-8D94ED6361D3.thumb.png.ce24d7a51e75316699171ca64dcb2631.png

 

 

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38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The last 3 Novembers in NYC were colder than average. But this year is starting out differently. The previous 3 years began the month warm and shifted colder by the 2nd week of the month. This year the coldest days for a while will be on the 2nd 3rd with a rebound back to the mild 60s. So it will be interesting to see if this means that we will finally see a milder than normal November.

Nov....EWR...NYC...LGA

2019...-4.0....-3.8.....-3.7

2018...-3.1....-3.3....-2.7

2017...-.0.7....-1.1....-0.3

KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  11/01/2020  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 SUN  01| MON 02| TUE 03| WED 04| THU 05| FRI 06| SAT 07| SUN 08 CLIMO
 X/N  56| 36  45| 39  51| 39  57| 51  67| 55  68| 56  68| 59  66 42 56


AE5C017D-5E6D-4690-BDF7-7CD741FD5341.thumb.png.fcb5c571c318453b90a38ed2322f25cb.png

870C50C3-B386-464E-9E67-8D94ED6361D3.thumb.png.ce24d7a51e75316699171ca64dcb2631.png

 

 

FWIW the new CANSIPS is projecting an extremely mild November

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Model forecasts look like a combination of the La Niña and +PMM. This is the first time the +PMM SSTs off the West Coast were this warm with a moderate to strong La Niña. Normally, a straight La Niña signal in November would be cooler here. But the +PMM  composite is more of a SE Ridge and North Pacific ridge extension into Alaska and the Bering Sea. The stronger trough showing up near the PAC NW looks like the La Niña part of the signal. So the combination of the two really pumps the SE ridge early this month. Beyond the early part of the month, will have to see how this La Niña and +PMM interaction evolves.

09103276-C65E-4492-88C7-A85B9D0C5202.png.9be3f50385847db18d6c5fab39074f73.png
0F351D42-8382-48D6-B1AB-642CA7320850.gif.b4a8ea5ef963a5e8066c1ab42d6d288f.gif

BE933B6A-2759-4F5F-BE6E-818F006CC21A.thumb.png.9c489eb0f3078be93dd6ec060c79b096.png

Unusual for sure. If the CANSIPS is correct, you have to pray for help on the PAC side...question is will you get it with a coupled, strong La Niña in place? It shows absolutely no help at all from the AO and NAO from Dec-Mar. Positive AO and NAO as far as the eye can see

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The last 3 Novembers in NYC were colder than average. But this year is starting out differently. The previous 3 years began the month warm and shifted colder by the 2nd week of the month. This year the coldest days for a while will be on the 2nd 3rd with a rebound back to the mild 60s. So it will be interesting to see if this means that we will finally see a milder than normal November.

Nov....EWR...NYC...LGA

2019...-4.0....-3.8.....-3.7

2018...-3.1....-3.3....-2.7

2017...-.0.7....-1.1....-0.3

KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  11/01/2020  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 SUN  01| MON 02| TUE 03| WED 04| THU 05| FRI 06| SAT 07| SUN 08 CLIMO
 X/N  56| 36  45| 39  51| 39  57| 51  67| 55  68| 56  68| 59  66 42 56


AE5C017D-5E6D-4690-BDF7-7CD741FD5341.thumb.png.fcb5c571c318453b90a38ed2322f25cb.png

870C50C3-B386-464E-9E67-8D94ED6361D3.thumb.png.ce24d7a51e75316699171ca64dcb2631.png

 

 

We have had the last two November’s cold and it really hasn’t helped us. If we are going to have limited chances this winter I rather save the cold shots for when snow climo is better.

 

We should see the epo and Ao both go negative next week. Unfortunately, we will need to wait for the pac to improve so the cold isn’t just dumping into the west. The blocking on top of the pole is a very good thing to see.

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My fear this month is that the -pna cools the warm pool off the west coast. That’s one of very few positives we have going for us 

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3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

My fear this month is that the -pna cools the warm pool off the west coast. That’s one of very few positives we have going for us 

Yea, it looks like an extended run of RNA coming up. Will be interesting to see what it looks like come the beginning of December 

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11 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Whoever told you that the MJO is going to be in phase 8, 1, 2 this winter is wishcasting. Phases 3 through 6 are the ones that will be favored 

 

From a tropical forcing perspective, how might this La Niña differ from the norm? 2020-21 is predicted to have more activity over the Indian Ocean and less over the Maritime Continent.

Ben noll.

If this is true then one two and three would be more likely than four five and six this winter but we shall see

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Looking like a very long stretch of days with high temps well into the 60s, starting on thursday. No sign of any cool shot for a long time. November looking like a warm month. Great for late season outdoor activities. I agree with Allsnow. Let the cold wait until December when there's a better chance it will matter as far as snow chances. 

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12 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Whoever told you that the MJO is going to be in phase 8, 1, 2 this winter is wishcasting. Phases 3 through 6 are the ones that will be favored 

Good chance of March being cold because of that. 

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55 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We need to maintain that warm pool west of Central America in order to get some chances for snow this winter. The strong +PMM helped us out during the La Niña winters in 16-17 and 17-18. While those were warm winters with February 2018 hitting 80°, we did get -EPO -AO -NAO intervals for respectable snows. March 2018 featured the bonus strat warming with record March and April snows especially on Long Island. But the -PMM La Niña winters in 07-08 and 11-12 featured the +EPO/+AO/+NAO snowless pattern. March 2012 had the famous Midwest summer in spring pattern. 
 

4A0F1CF8-5382-488B-B660-9AE60C7351CC.png.4d97ad1a76ecc1c6daa119588bb67dd7.png


624B174F-770A-4750-9B93-5962CBE8026A.png.6cbae729694b3be61b1528f881acc020.png
B1C56F89-808B-439F-A067-6AD2514A3FF5.png.89bf509fd3b60191ba43c7664db05897.png

1641746E-F140-4167-926E-1AAA528E0056.png.02ba2d3732979f639dc25861af7e4a5e.png

 

Great post. I think February will probably be another warm one with March being more wintry 

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there have been many a la nina winter with a cold January and mild February...1971, 1984, 1985 and 2018 to name a few...There also are a few la nina winters when February had the coldest temperatures or biggest snowfall...1972, 1974, 1975 and 2006 come to mind...I'm not sure if its going to be front loaded or back loaded at this point...

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I didn't have the heart to start a wind topic for tomorrow.  Just doesn't look quite strong enough to me, but I could be wrong.  IF OKX/PHI start a wind advisory in our area, I'd add a topic but am not quite as keen on this being scattered 45+MPH except ridges and maybe the eastern tip of LI.  Not much has changed in the modeling as far as I can tell from the 00z-06z/1 cycle. If power outages, then I would expect those to be mostly in the forested higher terrain, mainly between 7AM and 2 PM. 

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17 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Good chance of March being cold because of that. 

I was thinking that too. Once the wavelengths start to shorten up again in March, those MJO phases don’t have the same mild effects on the pattern as they do in the dead of winter. If I’m a betting man, March will be cold, assuming everything progresses that way.  What you don’t want to see in a La Niña winter is a mild December with below normal snowfall...they almost always have very poor outcomes

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