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Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion

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6 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

GFS is on board for a rainer this weekend. 

Tonight's GFS is much closer to what the other models are showing... trending toward a closed H5 low passing south.  It's still warmer and rainier, but it's getting there.

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Hoping we finally get into a classic clipper train with arctic intrusions after the rainstorm on the 4th.  It's been a long time.  Lake ice on Lake Michigan is still minimal so enhancement looks good.

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Just now, RyanDe680 said:

GFS says 4th and 5th still look interesting

could it be I'll need my roof snow rake for the first time in 3 years?

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Some serious cold starting to show up in the long range.  Are teleconnections supporting this??  I thought this was supposed to stay in the NW and Alaska.  

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For the big trough later next week, concerned that it'll be tough to avoid any rain with that setup. The until that point persistent west based NAO block is progged to rotate eastward, which would enable a larger height spike ahead of the deep western trough. There being plenty of time to get to a better outcome is the fortunate part of this and the GFS shows one possible way out.

 

It's been a while since I peeked at the long range with the more active pattern of late. No complaints in what they're showing, with solid agreement in a -EPO with much better cold, another plunge of the PNA, and continued -AO/-NAO. The NAO block is forecast to trend from west based to over or just east of Greenland. Meanwhile the MJO is forecast to go into phase 7 with enough amplitude to eventually go into phase 8. The phase 7 composite looks like the canonical Nina base state with southeast ridging.So with the other favorable teleconnection indicies, that pattern could be wintry and active if it works out.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

For the big trough later next week, concerned that it'll be tough to avoid any rain with that setup. The until that point persistent west based NAO block is progged to rotate eastward, which would enable a larger height spike ahead of the deep western trough. There being plenty of time to get to a better outcome is the fortunate part of this and the GFS shows one possible way out.

It's been a while since I peeked at the long range with the more active pattern of late. No complaints in what they're showing, with solid agreement in a -EPO with much better cold, another plunge of the PNA, and continued -AO/-NAO. The NAO block is forecast to trend from west based to over or just east of Greenland. Meanwhile the MJO is forecast to go into phase 7 with enough amplitude to eventually go into phase 8. The phase 7 composite looks like the canonical Nina base state with southeast ridging.So with the other favorable teleconnection industries, that pattern could be wintry and active if it works out.

That trough/pattern in late March/April for lack of a better term... yikes. :twister:

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Will we ever have another 7-10 day clipper train period?  And don't say that NW flow set up we had with 2-3 waves of 1/2" snowfalls in 35 degree temps was it. It was not. I'm talking an energetic wave train with  arctic air in place that puts down 3-4' on 0.15 of QPF in the heart of winter with a solid snowpack already in place every 36 hours or so,

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3 hours ago, madwx said:

The end of January and first week of February 2019 was a good clipper train

I remember the thread for those.

Also wasn't what he described basically all of Jan-Feb 2014?

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Will we ever have another 7-10 day clipper train period?  And don't say that NW flow set up we had with 2-3 waves of 1/2" snowfalls in 35 degree temps was it. It was not. I'm talking an energetic wave train with  arctic air in place that puts down 3-4' on 0.15 of QPF in the heart of winter with a solid snowpack already in place every 36 hours or so,
They happen, they just never seem to jackpot us, we usually end up missing north or south. Winter 2017-18 had stretches like that, Detroit area back to Wisconsin benefitted from the December round.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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6 hours ago, andyhb said:

That trough/pattern in late March/April for lack of a better term... yikes. :twister:

I'll take a last 3/28 do-over without the early crudvection...and without the "Safer at Home" order issued like 3 days earlier.

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That trough/pattern in late March/April for lack of a better term... yikes. :twister:
Hopefully a harbinger of things to come in the spring.

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