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Major Hurricane Delta

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27 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
31 minutes ago, dan11295 said:
12z intensity/track guidance implies a borderline cat 2/3 landfall in Vermilion Parish late Friday morning. Coast is basically marsh with low population there. With fast movement and larger storm would certainly see significant wind impacts to Lafayette area though.

 

6z HWRF has a very large hurricane with a large circulation coming ashore. Likely a Cat 2 intensity-wise at landfall, but after having reached 939 mb in the central GOM. If that verifies, the surge impacts are going to be brutal.

Yeah, my fear is basically that it Ivans itself, and then windspeed reduction right before landfall doesn't really matter. 

I have tried to read a few papers on it but the cause and constraints of TC wind radius and it's changes seem...mysterious to me. Obviously affected by surrounding background pressure, size of originating disturbance, eyewall replacement ycles, etc.

As a side note, despite all the storms none Annular this year in the Atlantic, correct? 

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2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Delta has that "look" this morning. IMO it looks more organized exiting the Yucatan.

Yeah, what helped Cancun is bad news for the gulf coast: a larger, more stable core and an expansion of the wind field

 

image.thumb.png.634567b90cecd68475ec155c51b93f29.png

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I'm on an Isla Mujeres group (after falling in love with the island) and thankfully they said there is very little damage. Mainly just limbs from trees and very little rain compared to past hurricanes. 

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Delta's structure is improving considerably by the hour even with half of its circulation still over the Yucatán. Notice poleward upper level outflow increasing and significant expansion of an actual CDO. Delta looks primed to intensify once the core pulls away from the coast.88807e9156fdb612a8de99d9c8ee32dc.gif&key=2be8a2c3501c452d275dc5eab9d7d150250f299557981b1a08c5743db8c577af

 

 

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1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

Delta's structure is improving considerably by the hour even with half of its circulation still over the Yucatán. Notice poleward upper level outflow increasing and significant expansion of an actual CDO. Delta looks primed to intensify once the core pulls away from the coast.88807e9156fdb612a8de99d9c8ee32dc.gif&key=2be8a2c3501c452d275dc5eab9d7d150250f299557981b1a08c5743db8c577af

 

 

I am always trying to learn so please bear with me.  In the right of that image it appears the cloud tops are being blown westward.  Wouldn't a healthy vented system show outflow in this area as well?  Is this what shear looks like?

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16 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Delta's structure is improving considerably by the hour even with half of its circulation still over the Yucatán. Notice poleward upper level outflow increasing and significant expansion of an actual CDO. Delta looks primed to intensify once the core pulls away from the coast.88807e9156fdb612a8de99d9c8ee32dc.gif&key=2be8a2c3501c452d275dc5eab9d7d150250f299557981b1a08c5743db8c577af

 

 

Agreed, I think we'll see some significant intensification tonight/tomorrow.

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I am always trying to learn so please bear with me.  In the right of that image it appears the cloud tops are being blown westward.  Wouldn't a healthy vented system show outflow in this area as well?  Is this what shear looks like?

Pay close attention to the high cirrus flow, not the low and mid level clouds that are expanding west within the growing circulation. You will see that they are beginning to race poleward. That is due to the setup of the westward extension of 200 hPa upper heights over the E GOM. This should increase ventilation away and evacuate mass as Delta moves further WNW to NW this evening.

e0d503be70a68e63d543985d4e50ddf6.gif&key=e52de09ceb3fb60e3ab242ca9495b96f006dde96395a9336e46ca89716d19641

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The westward moving clouds off to the se of the storm are from the ne/easterly shear which has helped cause the weakening of the storm.  Once Delta continues to move nw into the Gulf that shear will lessen as it rounds the base of high pressure in the eastern gulf and enable strengthening to occur once again.

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9 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Pay close attention to the high cirrus flow, not the low and mid level clouds that are expanding west within the growing circulation. You will see that they are beginning to race poleward. That is due to the setup of the westward extension of 200 hPa upper heights over the E GOM. This should increase ventilation away and evacuate mass as Delta moves further WNW to NW this evening.

e0d503be70a68e63d543985d4e50ddf6.gif&key=e52de09ceb3fb60e3ab242ca9495b96f006dde96395a9336e46ca89716d19641

 

7 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

The westward moving clouds off to the se of the storm are from the ne/easterly shear which has helped cause the weakening of the storm.  Once Delta continues to move nw into the Gulf that shear will lessen as it rounds the base of high pressure in the eastern gulf and enable strengthening to occur once again.

Thanks!

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The eye/center of Hurricane Delta is just about over Rio Lagartos per the 10AM NHC report:

Rio Lagartos, Coordinates: 21°36′N 88°10′W

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Río_Lagartos

WTNT31 KNHC 071449
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL262020
1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020

...CENTER OF DELTA ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE 
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 88.0W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF CABO CATOCHE MEXICO
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM E OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES

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5 minutes ago, Prospero said:

The spaghetti plots are inching westward.

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?storm=26&year=2020&title=26

 

Honestly, it's better that it keeps inching westward. If it hits areas recovering from Laura, there will be less damage, due to all the damage that is still left over from Laura. Hitting Lafayette or eastward would be another billion dollar disaster

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14 minutes ago, Joseph Torre said:

Honestly, it's better that it keeps inching westward. If it hits areas recovering from Laura, there will be less damage, due to all the damage that is still left over from Laura. Hitting Lafayette or eastward would be another billion dollar disaster

Nothing like banging an already bruised shin. Ouch.

Better than banging the other one I guess...

 

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1 hour ago, Joseph Torre said:

Honestly, it's better that it keeps inching westward. If it hits areas recovering from Laura, there will be less damage, due to all the damage that is still left over from Laura. Hitting Lafayette or eastward would be another billion dollar disaster

I doubt that the population living in Lake Charles feels this way.  

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13 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Nothing like banging an already bruised shin. Ouch.

Better than banging the other one I guess...

 

in my eyes banging your other shin would be better because your shin already got hit and can only take so much damage before it can take no more. If Delta hits the same areas as a powerful storm I doubt they'll ever try to rebuild that area again. Kinda like how that one city in the late 1800's got hit by 2 powerful hurricanes within a decade and they just gave up and moved everything to "the old dirt town up the road" houston lol

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7 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

in my eyes banging your other shin would be better because your shin already got hit and can only take so much damage before it can take no more. If Delta hits the same areas as a powerful storm I doubt they'll ever try to rebuild that area again. Kinda like how that one city in the late 1800's got hit by 2 powerful hurricanes within a decade and they just gave up and moved everything to "the old dirt town up the road" houston lol

At least people back then took the hint and moved away. Now we just have socialism for beach houses. 

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31 minutes ago, brianc33710 said:

I doubt that the population living in Lake Charles feels this way.  

well, it's gotta hit somewhere and there aren't any completely unpopulated places along it's route.  Where would you have it hit - within the cone, that is, this thing is obviously not going to hit Antarctica?

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Looks like recon extrap pressure was just a tad below 977mb. Not bad. Swath of hurricane and tropical storm force winds is much broader now, albeit there isn’t really an obvious wind max now near the eye.

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With a large pile of debris in eyeshot of my apartment and a tarp on the roof (the normal around the city right now), yeah, can confirm I'd rather not have this one.

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well, the core's a sloppy mess but it looks to have survived intact and the winfield has expanded considerably.  If the shear stays away there should be enough hot water and moist air to kick this storm into gear fairly quickly - although this IS 2020 sooo....

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