brianc33710

PDS Severe Tstm Watch in Cen MS. Storm Prediction Center PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch 293 (noaa.gov)

Well successfully tracking down a tornado that's just a little shit is better than no tornadoes at all lol. I remember 2013 when my apartment overlooked Tampa Bay I got a bunch of great waterspout pictures & videos. But my ex apparently deleted all of them from my Facebook without my permission (& a ton more). I only have 1 background picture that's 1/2 lightning strike & 1/2 waterspout left.

AL was spared a fairly significant severe weather outbreak a few weeks back due to this warm capping. Most of the other ingredients were there for a notable event. Will this hold through the night? A strong storm headed toward San Antonio died before getting there.

So for Day 1 do we have 2 MODS, 1 big MOD, 1 HIGH & 1 MOD, or 2 HIGHS? I'll go with 2 MODS but will fully admit I thought the SPC HIGHS were an overreaction Friday. I wish I had been right.

The tiniest possible corner of NW AL is in the 2/5 now. Literally, if there's a house on the AL/MS/TN front yard is Slight & the house & back yard are Marginal lol.

Concerns me that the potential for a more extensive & violent outbreak has returned. I apologize for not making that more clear.

The SPC didn't mention the possible inhibiting factors they mentioned in previous update. That concerns me.

I remember at least 2 2022 severe weather events in AL that were expected to be fairly extensive, 3(E)-4(W)/5 threats. The models showed a warm & humid influx of air from the Gulf. While the warm air mass arrived the humidity didn't. We had 80s/30C temps with >50 mph/80 kmph wind gusts but dewpoints held in the low 50s/10s in Bham & not much higher in Tuscaloosa which is almost always more humid than Bham. Usually the baseline dewpoints here for severe weather weather is 55F/12.5C. As a result we actually had a number of wildfires because of downed powerlines in advance of the delayed rain. But instead of a tornado outbreak we had less severe straight line winds. The dewpoints finally reached 60F/15.5C when the rain arrived but not before.

IF you look at the "max" in the bottom right corner it's 25.47. Look closely cause it's not on the picture itself. I just messaged you too. Please read it when you get a chance.

Check out some of these STPs. I thought the max was 20! https://twitter.com/realStarInBox/status/1642715078809067521/photo/1 OK so this may or may not work..... EDIT The link opens. I just couldn't share the photo itself. EDIT 2: I had shared a hodograph using the above given STPs but didn't want to use someone else's work from another forum. So I deleted the follow up message.

I saw Spann got caught off guard tonight when the model showed a 6F/-14.5C for Bham in this outbreak. This must be what you found. He felt the reading was too low. I'm still sticking with 7F/-14C as Bham lowest, which would match Jans '03 & '14.

The GFS shows some snow for Friday. Given the severity & speed of the air mass I find it impossible to believe we wont at least briefly switch to sleet &/or snow. The GFS has Bham at 7F/-14C & Euro has 9F/-13C.

I know last night the CMC showed the area having sub 15F/-9.5C for nights on end. I started a feed in the SE forum. I couldn't find 1 so I started 1.

I don't know if anyone has already started this. But parts of the SE US is forecast to experience its most brutal Arctic blast in 5-9 years, depending on the model. While they differ on the coldest morning, both the GFS (Fri am) & Euro (Sat am) forecast Birmingham to drop to 5-8 F/-15 to -13.5 C in this extreme cold event. The local guys are predicting 10-11 F/-12 to -11.5 C, but the models keep showing Temps under this.

The Tornado threat is fairly high. But SPC maps also significant severe winds & large hail don't appear to be expected today