October 2020 Discussion

[Dr. Dews]

1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

We often see LI getting snow while the southern half of CT gets rain.

Dynamics early/late season

[OceanStWx]

7 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Gotta give credit. FV3 has schooled the Euro since last winter. Whatever they did .. it’s better . Can’t toss it anymore 

I'm not going to go back and dig up the posts where you advocated just trashing it instead of going FV3, but it's worth noting that no significant changes have been made to the model physics. It's the same package as the v14 GFS but a different core to make future changes easier. 

FWIW, these are the cosmetic changes made:

Quote

• Replacement of Zhao-Carr microphysics with the more advanced GFDL microphysics
• Updated parameterization of ozone photochemistry with additional production and loss terms
• Newly introduced parameterization of middle atmospheric water vapor photochemistry
• Revised bare soil evaporation scheme
• Modified convective parameterization scheme to reduce excessive cloud top cooling.

Any narrowing of the performance gap (perceived or real) is more likely due to Euro changes than GFS at this point. I'd like to see more than ~ 1 year's worth of data before calling that though.

[Typhoon Tip]

I’d still take the Euro at day 4.5 over all others. 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I know everyone is probably thinking about the snow but I find the tropical remnants piece interesting. That looks fairly robust for someone depending on the track and eventual intensity of Zeta. Any frozen would be gravy for this tropical weenie. 

Oh it’s likely to be a notable TC ... 

it’s got that tightly coherent nucleus look garland by that pink nausea cold ...  dumping ocean sodium into the the lower stat

I wonder what the IOH is down there. Prolly gotta dive a half mile to get the cline waters under 80...

[Ginx snewx]

22 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Our solutions are obviously snow or no snow, but the ensembles definitely seemed to be splitting into two camps of goose eggs and minor accumulations. Some triple bunners, but we toss those for now. 

Ensemble sensitivity had most of the variance tied to amplification of the system. So more amped may bring more QPF, but also more warm air. Flatter could also whiff completely (more so up this way). Gotta thread it, but cautiously optimistic right now.

In pictures 

[alex]

A little dusting on the pumpkins this morning 

[powderfreak]

First light snow obs of the season up here at the ASOS.  Small granular flakes.

KMVL 261006Z AUTO 21006KT 4SM -SN SCT022 BKN029 OVC039 02/M01 

[mahk_webstah]

8 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

I'm not going to go back and dig up the posts where you advocated just trashing it instead of going FV3, but it's worth noting that no significant changes have been made to the model physics. It's the same package as the v14 GFS but a different core to make future changes easier. 

FWIW, these are the cosmetic changes made:

Any narrowing of the performance gap (perceived or real) is more likely due to Euro changes than GFS at this point. I'd like to see more than ~ 1 year's worth of data before calling that though.

As always, a very high quality discussion when a certain Met does the long range.

[dryslot]

Small and tight window for this.

[mreaves]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

First light snow obs of the season up here at the ASOS.  Small granular flakes.

KMVL 261006Z AUTO 21006KT 4SM -SN SCT022 BKN029 OVC039 02/M01 

Slushy coating on the car this morning.  Even a little bit on the ground in the back yard.

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Small and tight window for this.

The best windows 

[dryslot]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The best windows 

If they end up over your head they are.

[Dr. Dews]

29 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Slushy coating on the car this morning.  Even a little bit on the ground in the back yard.

 

Gross

[powderfreak]

30 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Slushy coating on the car this morning.  Even a little bit on the ground in the back yard.

 

Nice!  I didn’t see anything sticking down in town but up here the view at the office is of snowy trees.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Storm threat, regardless of precip type., looks legit, so if someone wants to fire up a thready for it, we can move discussion there. 

[PhineasC]

Dusting this morning. Already had more snow fall in Randolph than all of last winter in MD.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Storm threat, regardless of precip type., looks legit, so if someone wants to fire up a thready for it, we can move discussion there. 

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yup!  ...I cited these notions too earlier on last eve and how this has 'no margin for error' 

It's a phasing deal but doing so through thru an unusually narrow longitude - interesting...  There's actually three entities btw ...  The Para G and oper. G are both coherent with Zeta remnants peeling S of LI ... Could bring some IB over the nascent polar front and then we "lull" ( maybe ...) whatever is falling at that time - probably goes to raw mist... Then as you said, 'legit cold' loading arrives .. It's hard to even pull a barrier/drain jet out of that synopsis, though there's likely to be 925 mb accelerations around typical topography.  But the point is .. with whole region C-NE --> S seeming to wall at once, that signifies a deep-ish layer that means bidness' ..  I could see people 44 F in light to moderate rain, then cat pawing at 39 when I see that... start going to parachutes at 37 in that look, shedding T's in a pulse and subtle backing wind direction.  

As an aside, we're seeing unusual temperature variance either side of ambient polar fronts in recent autumns.  < 0 C 850s against temps reside where mere 300 naut mi S still supports 80 F ...spanning along vast stretches of the continent .. Autumn extremes are not hugely unusual, but that 'not huge' is becoming 'more usual' in autumns since ~ 2000... 62 F like days with clouds and blase slope sun, and then 37 with cat paws the next day is deceptively non-dramatic and slips under awareness in a modernity that is perhaps too distracting/culturally to think of it as significant .. or perhaps 'jolting' is becoming common place in itself. But the first 30 years of my life, it was not that frequent that mere 24 hourly temp changes needed to be nearing 30 F as frequently as it has in the last 20 years...  way more common than it used to be.  Even doing so spanning 72 hours.. it's relative to all temporal scales ... increased frequency of larger variance.  altho today 'feels' like a step down drab 

Either way, it's always exciting to cover the season's first snow ..even if it is just in the air. 

May want to post this in new storm thread.

[ORH_wxman]

Tip, I moved your post to the storm thread (that was just created)

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Tip, I moved your post to the storm thread (that was just created)

ah,..sorry guys - sure thx ... admin moving too quickly this morning ftw ! lol

[dryslot]

Cold a showery morning here, Had some graupel with the onset,  Low was 30°F, Looked like it warmed just enough to keep what fell as rain thereafter as temp rose to 34°F.

[dendrite]

41° -RA

0.17”

[OceanStWx]

14 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

As always, a very high quality discussion when a certain Met does the long range.

I followed my 

Actually feels very good to dust off the old winter procedures.

[Ginx snewx]

Amazingly my Ghost peppers are still producing.  I had 29 degrees this month

[alex]

A little light snow falling 

[BrianW]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Amazingly my Ghost peppers are still producing.  I had 29 degrees this month

Haven't been below 40 here on the shoreline. Dandelions are starting to come up again around here. Tons of stuff is still flowering and growing. 

[powderfreak]

30 minutes ago, alex said:

A little light snow falling 

Yeah I’ve seen some snow grains this morning, almost like a frozen drizzle lol.

Rime ice layer is real low, like 2,500ft or a bit lower.  Trees really frosted up last night.

[tamarack]

Actually seeing the sun occasionally, which has been uncommon this month (though Sunday was appreciated.)  This week's mostly BN temps may pull the month down to about average here.  Yesterday's high of 37 was the season's coolest max by 8°.

[dendrite]

May have to watch for first flakes up here tonight.

[powderfreak]

47 minutes ago, dendrite said:

May have to watch for first flakes up here tonight.

Yeah I was wondering if we see widespread -SHSN or flurries tonight.

Sky has that virga snow wispy look.  In fact Mansfield just disappeared in snow it looks like.