donsutherland1 Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: 121 mph wind gust reported on AL barrier island and rainfall of 30" + near Pensacola There was additional rainfall. However, it seems that unlike a few years ago, WPC no longer provides precipitation amounts for ongoing events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 50 minutes ago, MJO812 said: That storm looks like it will hit Nova Scotia. Most likely scenario. A bit too early to see a big phased in trough, but October could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Most likely scenario. A bit too early to see a big phased in trough, but October could be interesting. But we saw it in early August with Isaias. Either way, I think we aren't done with EC TC. The next one we get will most likely be from the Greek alphabet lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 Today saw temperatures top out in the middle and upper 70s. However, this warmth will be short-lived. The coldest air mass so far this season will begin to overspread the region tomorrow. The coming weekend will be unseasonably chilly. Even Central Park could see the temperature drop below 50° for the first time in September since September 24, 2013 when the temperature fell to 47°. Generally below normal readings could persist into at least the last week of September. There is an increasing possibility that September could wind up on the cool side of normal, which would be an uncommon event in recent cases preceding La Niña winters. Elsewhere, Phoenix reached 109° today, which tied the daily record set in 1962. Today was also the 120th time this year that Phoenix reached 100° or above. 2020 is just the 7th year on record with 120 or more 100° readings. The last such year was 2018 with 128 days. The 30-year moving average is now 110.5 days. The 30-year moving average in 2010 was 109.6 days. Records go back to August 1895. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions have developed and will likely prevail through the remainder of autumn. The SOI was +17.89. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.292. On September 16, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.620 (RMM). The September 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.428. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 48% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September. September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.1°. Finally,on September 16, Arctic sea ice extent (JAXA) was 3.630 million square kilometers. To date, the summer minimum figure is 3.555 million square kilometers (JAXA). Based on 2010-2019 data, the highest 25% bound was 3.742 million square kilometers. The lowest 25% bound was 3.581 million square kilometers. The lowest 10% bound is 3.465 million square kilometers. 2020 is the second consecutive year with a minimum extent figure below 4.000 million square kilometers and the third such year on record. 2020 also has, by far, the second lowest extent on record. In contrast, according to NSIDC historical data, the 1920 minimum extent was approximately 8.826 million square kilometers and the 1970 minimum extent was 8.757 million square kilometers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 It looks like the weather will remain rather quiet around here for at least the next week unless something tropical pops up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 67degs. Make it 62degs, or -5.0. This GFS run again looks unbridled starting the 23rd.----with 7 80's, 1 90, and 3 more lows in the 70's! The Tropics: 36.5N 76.0W-Sally leftovers entering the Atlantic, 22.5N. 94.0W-the Wanderer, 21.5N 55.0W-Oh the games I played with Sally that u did not read about, finally 12N 31W. 64*(82%RH) here at 6am, scattered clouds. 68* by 1pm. 71* by 5pm. 84* by 9pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 Looks like we here in Wantage NJ are in the midst of at least a 14 dry spell having started early on the 11th with the xext chance of measurable rain here around the 24th-25th and per the NAEFS, nothing significant through Oct 2. Good thing days are shorter and overall it's much cooler, so remaining flowers not nipped by frost here in the I84 corridor valleys (Sat-Tue mornings), won't need as much watering. Might??? become interesting for small scale fires around here if this keeps up...especially se NYS (added graphic qpf % departure last 2 weeks and then am mentally projecting ahead next 1-3 weeks). West Coast smoke overhead along I95 corridor through the I84 corridor today sinks southward so that by tonight we should be pretty much cleaned out as it sinks into the southeast USA. Finally, while the NAEFS was indeed too far too north for early today, it and the UKMET (past two cycles) especially picked up on a secondary area of relatively heavy qpf that occurred this morning on the north shore of LI (Suffolk County especially) with 0.5 to .85" amounts are noted in WU data and on the digital radar precip estimates. Overall however, I think the GFS did best on northern extent of qpf throughout the prior week of forecast cycles. 656A/18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 Morning thoughts... A strong cold front is moving across the area. Clouds will gradually give way to partly sunny skies. Temperatures will rise mainly into the upper 60s to around 70° across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 69° Newark: 70° Philadelphia: 70° This weekend will see the coolest readings so far this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 Quite a difference in the IOD from this time last year. Hopefully, that bodes well (or at least less bad) for our winter prospects this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 18, 2020 Author Share Posted September 18, 2020 i miss july Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: i miss july i thought you said summer would last Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 18, 2020 Author Share Posted September 18, 2020 1 minute ago, nycwinter said: i thought you said summer would last enjoy your +7 january Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 Just now, forkyfork said: enjoy your +7 january Please no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 5 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i miss july GFS showing 80s late September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 12 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i miss july This! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 Does nyc drop into the 40’s tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Does nyc drop into the 40’s tonight? I'll say 49 nyc, 51 lga, 47 ewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 Just now, Stormlover74 said: I'll say 49 nyc, 51 lga, 47 ewr No probably 49 nyc, 72 lga, 47 ewr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, doncat said: No probably 49 nyc, 72 lga, 47 ewr. Lol. metfan waiting for his first 40 degree temps in December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Lol. metfan waiting for his first 40 degree temps in December My low is forecasted to be 50. Lets see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 I'm loving this weather Sleeping with the window open is great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 21 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: GFS showing 80s late September. GFS probably overdoing it a little bit, but it does look like a nice warm pattern starting mid next week. Starting wednesday, at least a week of high temps mostly mid 70s to low 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 36 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I'm loving this weather Sleeping with the window open is great it's nice to not have to run AC or heat right now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 Coldest should be Sun night - Monday. 850s forecast at <0C. Temps rebound by 9/23 - 9/25 before next cool down 9/26-9/27. Back and forth with chance for cutoff ULL towards next month into the MW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 21 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Coldest should be Sun night - Monday. 850s forecast at <0C. Temps rebound by 9/23 - 9/25 before next cool down 9/26-9/27. Back and forth with chance for cutoff ULL towards next month into the MW. Doesn't look like a cooldown on the 26th-27th to me. Models are showing maybe a very brief minor cooldown on friday the 25th after the warmth of the 23rd-24th, and then actually warming back up the weekend of the 26th-27th. Could be looking at 80 degrees sunday the 27th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 8 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Doesn't look like a cooldown on the 26th-27th to me. Models are showing maybe a very brief minor cooldown on friday the 25th after the warmth of the 23rd-24th, and then actually warming back up the weekend of the 26th-27th. Could be looking at 80 degrees sunday the 27th. It's complicated and Teddy's evolution will play a role in the future pattern. Looks like it'll cause the NAO to go negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 First time seeing blue skies in 5 days, the smoke appears to be largely gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 Why does the NAO have to go negative right now ? SMH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 32 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Why does the NAO have to go negative right now ? SMH. Because it wants to be positive in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 33 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Why does the NAO have to go negative right now ? SMH. To preserve the forums servers.?. As always ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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