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wdrag

Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias

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16 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Is it safe to say the worst of the storm will be from about 11 am tomorrow morning thru about 9 pm tomorrow night?

May be done by 5 or 6

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37 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’d rather take the 2-4” of rain over the maybe 70mph winds so it can keep drifting East, please. 

were you in Long Beach during Bertha in 1996?  How much rain and wind do you remember us getting from it?

 

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24 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

classic east of track situation like we saw with Fay

3K NAM is even further west with the 2 inch rain line over the Delaware River and west

yeah this is such a "normal" pattern for what these storms do up here, you dont even need a model to forecast it- lots of rain west of the track, lots of wind east of the track.

 

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2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I should have been in the Poconos for this one lol, I would've seen a lot more rain there.

 

Depends what's more exciting to you. 4-6 hours of torrential rain and some gusty winds or 4-6 hours of severe wind, some rain and a few tornadoes.

I'll take the second option.

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4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Depends what's more exciting to you. 4-6 hours of torrential rain and some gusty winds or 4-6 hours of severe wind, some rain and a few tornadoes.

I'll take the second option.

I'll take the first option if it means a much more manageable storm, as it's looking like up here further inland. 

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I have to fly out of LGA at 6pm tomorrow (don’t want to fly - have to for work tho). How impactful will this be to air travel. I assume greatly but no experience with tropical storms.

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4 minutes ago, btcs31 said:

I have to fly out of LGA at 6pm tomorrow (don’t want to fly - have to for work tho). How impactful will this be to air travel. I assume greatly but no experience with tropical storms.

If I were you I'd prepare for delays, at least.

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10 minutes ago, btcs31 said:

I have to fly out of LGA at 6pm tomorrow (don’t want to fly - have to for work tho). How impactful will this be to air travel. I assume greatly but no experience with tropical storms.

That flight doesnt seem likely

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19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Depends what's more exciting to you. 4-6 hours of torrential rain and some gusty winds or 4-6 hours of severe wind, some rain and a few tornadoes.

I'll take the second option.

tornadoes are so rare, the chances of seeing one are literally a million to one.  The second option would be more exciting if it was raining the entire time it was windy.

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18z RGEM nails most of the area with lots of rain. Near Hurricane force winds for the SE NJ coast as well. Waiting for the rest of the run to load.

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13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

tornadoes are so rare, the chances of seeing one are literally a million to one.  The second option would be more exciting if it was raining the entire time it was windy.

It'll be somewhat likely on LI that there are one or two, but even so TS/hurricane related tornadoes are typically weak and short lived. 

Thankfully it seems like the worst of the storm will be over by high tide tomorrow night. 

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31 minutes ago, Rjay said:

That flight doesnt seem likely

Surprised it wasn't cancelled already, it will be later tonight most likely.

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The worst part of this storm . Is going to be everyone who wasn’t prepared because no media coverage. Then tomorrow 2 hours before it hits everyone is running wild for supples 

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

It'll be somewhat likely on LI that there are one or two, but even so TS/hurricane related tornadoes are typically weak and short lived. 

Thankfully it seems like the worst of the storm will be over by high tide tomorrow night. 

yeah a 3ft surge wouldn't be something we want to see.

is high tide around 8 PM tomorrow night on the south shore?

 

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4 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

A more potent PRE than modeled? 

It’s kind of falling apart now.

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5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

yeah a 3ft surge wouldn't be something we want to see.

is high tide around 8 PM tomorrow night on the south shore?

 

9ish

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6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

yeah a 3ft surge wouldn't be something we want to see.

is high tide around 8 PM tomorrow night on the south shore?

 

Jones Inlet is just before 9pm. 

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Just got an email from PSEG.  If we really do get the severe wind impacts out here, regular people really are not aware. 

PSEG Long Island has been monitoring Isaias around the clock and our latest projections show that this storm has been escalating in strength and has the potential to cause a significant number of power outages. We now anticipate that this storm may be one of the strongest to reach Long Island in years and some outages could last for an extended period.

The energy grid is much stronger now than it was just a few years ago, but we are prepared to respond to any outages safely and as quickly as possible with our own crews and additional utility crews that we are bringing in from off-island.

 

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