August 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[Brian5671]

Have about 15 inches here-mostly in July with 4 plus inches on 7/3.  June dry until the last 5 days or so.  August with about .50

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Not seeing a lot of 90F potential moving forward. Maybe very end of the month and early September?

Never say never with weather but could be.  That strong heat building in the west would challenge past highs if/when it shifts east towards the end of the month.  These period of persistent onshore flows were followed by period of heat this summer.

[doncat]

31 minutes ago, doncat said:

What are some of your station totals since 6/1 ?

Forgot to mention... 12.18" here.

[bluewave]

41 minutes ago, tim said:

...you better believe it!..moderate drought here on ELI.(.most of suffolk

county actually.)

All the high pressure over New England has kept the heaviest rains further to the west.

Time Series Summary for WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Precipitation Jun 1 to Aug 13	Missing Count
2020-08-13	4.35	3

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Precipitation Jun 1 to Aug 13	Missing Count
2020-08-13	16.30	0

 

 

[Allsnow]

Humid next week? 

[Brian5671]

25 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Humid next week? 

onshore flow with water temps 75-80 off NJ so would think so.   (I'll be at the shore so works for me!)

[wxallannj]

12.87"  since June 1st.    However none since last Friday!  Here in Clifton

[nycwinter]

one of the most comfortable days we had in the city for a long time..

[Rtd208]

4 hours ago, wdrag said:

I don't like that the GEFS is trending steadily south. Implies heavy rain Mason-Dixon line with northern fringes up here.  In summer, without deep cyclonic inflow, the heaviest tends to be be near the warm front-greatest instability.  This should resolve to greater consensus by the 00z/15 cycle.  Rather dry Uk is bothersome as well. 

Right on cue, the GFS continues to look drier for Sunday.

[Allsnow]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

onshore flow with water temps 75-80 off NJ so would think so.   (I'll be at the shore so works for me!)

50 dew points next week. That should really feel nice 

[wdrag]

24 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Right on cue, the GFS continues to look drier for Sunday.

12z/14 Friday cycle: Whew... glad it's not winter.  Have reviewed 12z GEFS/EPS/NAEFS, 09z SREF, 12z UK/GGEM/NAM12 and 3K. Despite the much drier 12z GFS op, the 12z GEFS continues to hammer 1" ne across much of our forum area, while the EPS is less than 1/4".  NAEFS (biased by the GEFS members) is definitely saying we're in the mix for a nasty dreary wet summer day but with GREAT variability in qpf amounts.  I do not like that the GGEM and UK are both edgy dry here.  Therefore,  don't know what to say except that I expect a period of rain for the forum area, mainly I95 corridor southeastward.  Amounts ?able but not enough for a topic (I'd be looking for 3-4" QPF somewhere here in the forum area, for a summer non - snow topic).  Will reevaluate early Saturday.

Monday evening:  unsure whether what happens Sunday nullifies late Monday,  but if the EC is correct and we just receive a quick grazing of light amounts Sunday I95 southeastward,  then we need to think potential for late season severe late Monday (EC has plenty of KI along the front, enough CAPE and wind aloft-good timing for now and cold enough 500mb to suggest iso hail).  UK seems to like the convective possibilities as well.  

It's early and am only highlighting the possibilities of these two days. We should all look this over again tomorrow.  May be offline for a while. 309P/14

[Rtd208]

5 minutes ago, wdrag said:

12z/14 Friday cycle: Whew... glad it's not winter.  Have reviewed 12z GEFS/EPS/NAEFS, 09z SREF, 12z UK/GGEM/NAM12 and 3K. Despite the much drier 12z GFS op, the 12z GEFS continues to hammer 1" ne across much of our forum area, while the EPS is less than 1/4".  NAEFS (biased by the GEFS members) is definitely saying we're in the mix for a nasty dreary wet summer day but with GREAT variability in qpf amounts.  I do not like that the GGEM and UK are both edgy dry here.  Therefore,  don't know what to say except that I expect a period of rain for the forum area, mainly I95 corridor southeastward.  Amounts ?able but not enough for a topic (I'd be looking for 3-4" QPF somewhere here in the forum area, for a summer non - snow topic).  Will reevaluate early Saturday.

Monday evening:  unsure whether what happens Sunday nullifies late Monday,  but if the EC is correct and we just receive a quick grazing of light amounts Sunday I95 southeastward,  then we need to think potential for late season severe late Monday (EC has plenty of KI along the front, enough CAPE and wind aloft-good timing for now and cold enough 500mb to suggest iso hail).  UK seems to like the convective possibilities as well.  

It's early and am only highlighting the possibilities of these two days. We should all look this over again tomorrow.  May be offline for a while. 309P/14

Well if this winter is anything like the last couple the only thing we will be tracking is rain and warm temps . I agree with your concern on "edgy dry" here, small shifts can make a big difference in QPF amounts. 

[Brian5671]

41 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

50 dew points next week. That should really feel nice 

wow-if that occurs it'll feel cool in the evenings

[doncat]

Not a bad day...80/67 currently with an east wind.

[wdrag]

41 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Well if this winter is anything like the last couple the only thing we will be tracking is rain and warm temps . I agree with your concern on "edgy dry" here, small shifts can make a big difference in QPF amounts. 

One thing I should have mentioned: IF this were a snow situation,  no matter the edgy, there is/was too much  information of concern within the ensembles to not have this a winter topic...but it's summer and most everyone can live with less than1 inch of rain as a non topic, provided the track remains south as per the 12z/14 modeling. 

[wdrag]

Thought some might like to see this new product.  Has many different ways to break this down geographically, including by county. Have just presented the overall OKX forecast area for the past 20 years of drought detail.  The dark red is D4... pretty serious but not for long and percentage wise (vertical), not too much of the area. Never a D5 in the OKX area the past 20 years. The cursor was set for a day in 2015 (blue vertical). From our NWS-NOA drought monitor group.

Can now search by NWS Weather Forecast Offices by the US Drought Manager Time Series tool.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Data/Timeseries.aspx

This a great tool to provide information on how frequent drought occurs by percent of area in your county warning area. It can be found under "Area Type". You can even toggle on or off varying extremes of drought.

[Intensewind002]

6.8" since June 1st so far in Lindenhurst, there's been enough rain to keep the drought from getting worse but no big events to totally get rid of it

[Brian5671]

17 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

It’s dead Jim!

 

maybe a couple of more days but it’s about to get cooler now.

I'd agree-daylight shortening quickly now, gets harder as you enter late August and with cooler weather this week that takes us to 8/22 and beyond before any return to heat.

[Cfa]

No one would ever say “it’s over” if it were snow in February right after a top 5 cold/snowy January. I know some are itching for fall but let’s be realistic.

90/72 split today, dews in the 60’s feel so dry after endless 70’s and the odd 80+ thrown in the mix.

[CIK62]

Naming ever little S H    T on the block.       TS KYLE forms and leaves.       Sinking air around it is why we cleared up today.      What a joke------the ACE for the year is about 21 and it has taken 11storms to get that much!

I reached 89* here this PM.

https://www.11alive.com/article/weather/tropical-depression-11-forms-likely-to-become-ts-josephine/85-5f8bc9c2-7595-4dc5-b695-9b96aee9515b

[JustinRP37]

3 hours ago, Cfa said:

No one would ever say “it’s over” if it were snow in February right after a top 5 cold/snowy January. I know some are itching for fall but let’s be realistic.

90/72 split today, dews in the 60’s feel so dry after endless 70’s and the odd 80+ thrown in the mix.

It’s like they forgot how hot our past few Septembers and October’s have been. Working in the field on ticks I can tell you we can get real heat and humidity well into the fall. 

[SnoSki14]

38 minutes ago, Cfa said:

No one would ever say “it’s over” if it were snow in February right after a top 5 cold/snowy January. I know some are itching for fall but let’s be realistic.

90/72 split today, dews in the 60’s feel so dry after endless 70’s and the odd 80+ thrown in the mix.

Who said it was over, all I said was the worst heat has likely passed. That doesn't mean it can't get really hot again though. 

And yeah by mid Feb the worst of the cold has likely passed. That doesn't mean you can't get snowstorms though. 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Thought some might like to see this new product.  Has many different ways to break this down geographically, including by county. Have just presented the overall OKX forecast area for the past 20 years of drought detail.  The dark red is D4... pretty serious but not for long and percentage wise (vertical), not too much of the area. Never a D5 in the OKX area the past 20 years. The cursor was set for a day in 2015 (blue vertical). From our NWS-NOA drought monitor group.

Can now search by NWS Weather Forecast Offices by the US Drought Manager Time Series tool.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Data/Timeseries.aspx

This a great tool to provide information on how frequent drought occurs by percent of area in your county warning area. It can be found under "Area Type". You can even toggle on or off varying extremes of drought.

I believe the last time NYC  had water restrictions was way back in 2002. But even that drought was much less severe than the one in the 1960s. A study of tree rings found that the 1960s drought may have been our most severe in 400 to 500 years. As your great recent storm threads have highlighted, we have shifted into a much wetter regime here.

https://seaandskyny.com/2012/04/29/trees-tell-the-story-of-500-years-of-nyc-drought-history/

[uncle W]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I believe the last time NYC  had water restrictions was way back in 2002. But even that drought was much less severe than the one in the 1960s. A study of tree rings found that the 1960s drought may have been our most severe in 400 to 500 years. As your great recent storm threads have highlighted, we have shifted into a much wetter regime here.

https://seaandskyny.com/2012/04/29/trees-tell-the-story-of-500-years-of-nyc-drought-history/

since 1971 NYC is averaging over 50" a year...before that it was 42"...1956 to 1965 was the driest 10 years on record...the drought broke in Sept> 1966...

[doncat]

26 minutes ago, uncle W said:

since 1971 NYC is averaging over 50" a year...before that it was 42"...1956 to 1965 was the driest 10 years on record...the drought broke in Sept> 1966...

1963-65 had about a 45" combined deficit based on a 48" yearly normal ( From Westerleigh coop).

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures rose into the middle and, in places, upper 80s today. Tomorrow will be cooler with highs in the lower 80s. Sunday could see some showers and perhaps periods of rain with readings mainly in the 70s.

Nevertheless, the current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through much of September, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer and a warm start to fall throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around August 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions will likely develop.

The SOI was +1.76.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.181.

On August 13, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.618 (RMM). The August 12-adjusted amplitude was 0.327.

Some of the guidance suggests that the MJO could be in Phase 8 in late August. The convergence of the MJO's passage through phase 8 and revived tropical cyclone activity could suggest the possibility of an East Coast threat during the August 20-September 10 period. Phases 8-1-2 have coincided with a cluster of East Coast landfalls. Belle (1976) and Gloria (1985) made landfall when the MJO was in Phase 8 at a low amplitude. Sandy (2012) and Fay (2020) made landfall when the MJO was in Phase 2.

The MJO's recent passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above has been uncommon during the first half of August. During the 1981-2019 period only 1983 and 2019 saw the MJO move through Phase 4 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the first half of August. August 1983 had the longest such stretch. Both cases saw the second half of August average generally warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Both cases also featured a warmer than normal September.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO.   

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 71% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August. August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.0°.

 

[uncle W]

21 minutes ago, doncat said:

1963-65 had about a 45" combined deficit based on a 48" yearly normal ( From Westerleigh coop).

1963 just missed being the driest year on record in NYC...1964 broke the record and became driest year on record...1965 broke that record by a lot to become the driest year on record...1966 was following the same theme but a September deluge broke the drought...

[SACRUS]

8/14

EWR: 89
ISP: 88
LGA: 88
TEB: 88
JFK: 86
NYC: 86
New Brnswck: 86
PHL: 86
TTN: 86
ACY: 83
BLM: 83
 

[SACRUS]

While clouds kept temps below forecast thursday, today saw more sunshine thanks in part to Josephine., allowing temps to beat guidance. 

[rclab]

3 hours ago, uncle W said:

1963 just missed being the driest year on record in NYC...1964 broke the record and became driest year on record...1965 broke that record by a lot to become the driest year on record...1966 was following the same theme but a September deluge broke the drought...

I remember those years. A little over 26 inches in 1965. The churches were offering special prayers for ran. Houses with Accessible yards in my Brooklyn neighborhoods were having wells dug. Trying to do that In the city today would probably be a permit nightmare. In my present Brooklyn area, even if my postage stamp was accessible, the NYC Landmarks hysterical society board would deny my request because the ground was historical.. As always ....