Rjay Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Thunderstorms woke me up at 530am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Morning thoughts... Yesterday, LaGuardia Airport recorded a minimum temperature of 80 degrees. That was the 7th 80-degree or above minimum temperature this year, which ties the record set in 2002. A frontal boundary will be located just to the north and west of cities such as Newark and New York City. As a result temperatures will again rise into the upper 80s across the region. A few locations could reach 90 degrees. Along the frontal boundary, heavy thunderstorms could develop, especially this afternoon and evening. An area that runs from Washington, DC to Armonk could see locations receive excessive rainfall. The HREF ensemble mean highlights the rainfall risk for Philadelphia and Washington, DC. South and east of the front should see less rain. Parts of Long Island may see little or no rain this afternoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 August 8th to 20th has been our most active time of the year for 3.00” or greater rainfalls since 2011. The historic 1000 year event happened at ISP during this period in 2014. So the models indicating varying degrees of heavy rain potential during this period may be correct. The historic Sparta flood also occurred during this same time of the year back in 2000. https://www.weather.gov/okx/HistoricFlooding_081314 https://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hdsc/aep_storm_analysis/ https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2001/0104/report.pdf 3.00” or greater events since 2011 2019 8-8....Livingston TWP, NJ...3.21 2018 8-11 to 8-13 NWS Upton........6.60 8-7.......North Merrick..............4.73 2017 8-18......East Shoreham....3.80 2016 8-20.....Calverton.....3.85 2014 8-13.....JFK...3.26....ISP....13.51 2011 8-15...EWR...6.56...NYC...6.37...LGA...6.64...JFK....7.80...BDR....3.17....ISP...6.49....Lido Beach....10.20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 7 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Thanks Uncle, this is a wealth of info! On a note about a different kind of storm, the Perseids are really good tonight! Around 11 PM I saw a few really bright ones that seemed to pass just over my house! One really notable one that changed color from golden to red and after it streaked across really low I heard a sound, almost like the sound of a pebble hitting something? Would that be a bolide? How are the sky conditions over there? I'm still in the Poconos for a couple more days. where in the Poconos?...My son has a house in Wild Acres in Dingmans Ferry...I've been going there for 48 years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Morning thoughts... Yesterday, LaGuardia Airport recorded a minimum temperature of 80 degrees. That was the 7th 80-degree or above minimum temperature this year, which ties the record set in 2002. A frontal boundary will be located just to the north and west of cities such as Newark and New York City. As a result temperatures will again rise into the upper 80s across the region. A few locations could reach 90 degrees. Along the frontal boundary, heavy thunderstorms could develop, especially this afternoon and evening. An area that runs from Washington, DC to Armonk could see locations receive excessive rainfall. The HREF ensemble mean highlights the rainfall risk for Philadelphia and Washington, DC. South and east of the front should see less rain. Parts of Long Island may see little or no rain this afternoon and evening. I'm curious to see whose ideas pan out for later today, you or WDrag who seems to feel that the T-storm line will be 20-30 miles south of this. Similar to the differences in winter this "wet" period for much of the Metro Area has been anything but here in Putnam County. For all intents the dry period started in early June and hasn't changed. I did get some rains in July and about an inch so far this month but all told it's about 5" in total since 6/1 which is very light for this area and it's really starting to show. Much of the flora is showing late summer/early fall colors and trees in the usual spots are beginning to turn but this is 2 weeks earlier than even their regular schedule. The forest understory all faded and much of it died off already which is also several weeks early, the stress is evident. On the upside the dryness has allowed the bees and other pollinators to flourish far above the levels of the last couple of years, I have more bees in the garden this year than any other since the early years of this century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 84/76 steamy. Storms timing will determine if places reach 90. Dew point overdose alert. Thu - Fri more storms and clouds keeping temps down and keeping the Friday streak for rain th past month or so. Weekend onshore flow warm and humid but near average by way of higher minimums. 90s interruption 8/13 - 8/20ish. Mon 8/17 pending on storms could be the lone warm day of the work week otherwise more Florida-ish pattern stagnant with some real rain makers possile Cooler air may be blunted to the north into NYC/NEw Engalnd 8/18 - 8/20. Last week to 10 days Rockies ridge nudges east into the Plains with WAR expanding west. Timing may push strong heat to close the month? Have we seen the highest temps this summer yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: It looks like the fingerprint of Isaias left at the crime scene. As always..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 1 hour ago, gravitylover said: Much of the flora is showing late summer/early fall colors and trees in the usual spots are beginning to turn but this is 2 weeks earlier than even their regular schedule. The forest understory all faded and much of it died off already which is also several weeks early, the stress is evident. On the upside the dryness has allowed the bees and other pollinators to flourish far above the levels of the last couple of years, I have more bees in the garden this year than any other since the early years of this century. The storm caused leaf burn on the south facing side of all the trees here in SW Suffolk. Those brown leaves are falling from the trees in quantities that we normally see later in the fall. So the landscapers had to come by yesterday and do a special leaf cleanup. But the ground is completely covered with leaves again today. The tropical dew points and heat just doesn’t match up with all the falling leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: The storm caused leaf burn on the south facing side of all the trees here in SW Suffolk. Those brown leaves are falling from the trees in quantities that we normally see later in the fall. So the landscapers had to come by yesterday and do a special leaf cleanup. But the ground is completely covered with leaves again today. The tropical dew points and heat just doesn’t match up with all the falling leaves. some burn here too and I'm 5 miles inland from the sound. I also have salt on my south facing windows... Nothing like what you're describing but you all face the open Atlantic vs the sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 The browning seems to be getting worse, I wonder if the lack of rain to wash off the salt is partly to blame. It’s getting pretty ugly out there. 86/80/100 right now, 0.11” downpour this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 1 hour ago, gravitylover said: I'm curious to see whose ideas pan out for later today, you or WDrag who seems to feel that the T-storm line will be 20-30 miles south of this. Similar to the differences in winter this "wet" period for much of the Metro Area has been anything but here in Putnam County. For all intents the dry period started in early June and hasn't changed. I did get some rains in July and about an inch so far this month but all told it's about 5" in total since 6/1 which is very light for this area and it's really starting to show. Much of the flora is showing late summer/early fall colors and trees in the usual spots are beginning to turn but this is 2 weeks earlier than even their regular schedule. The forest understory all faded and much of it died off already which is also several weeks early, the stress is evident. On the upside the dryness has allowed the bees and other pollinators to flourish far above the levels of the last couple of years, I have more bees in the garden this year than any other since the early years of this century. 12z guidance (RGEM, NAM, and HRRR) are in line with Walt Drag’s thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Getting a sun shower here, it’s pouring. 84/80/98 it feels like a sauna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Nice little cell popped over Queens with nowhere to go. Pouring now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, JonClaw said: Nice little cell popped over Queens with nowhere to go. Pouring now. Looks pretty much stationary and is expanding in size Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 2 hours ago, SACRUS said: 84/76 steamy. Storms timing will determine if places reach 90. Dew point overdose alert. Thu - Fri more storms and clouds keeping temps down and keeping the Friday streak for rain th past month or so. Weekend onshore flow warm and humid but near average by way of higher minimums. 90s interruption 8/13 - 8/20ish. Mon 8/17 pending on storms could be the lone warm day of the work week otherwise more Florida-ish pattern stagnant with some real rain makers possile Cooler air may be blunted to the north into NYC/NEw Engalnd 8/18 - 8/20. Last week to 10 days Rockies ridge nudges east into the Plains with WAR expanding west. Timing may push strong heat to close the month? Have we seen the highest temps this summer yet? will the WAR retrograde scoop up another hurricane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Storms firing in South Jersey Ocean Cty area. Up to 90 here DT 74. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 there's a thread for the storms - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 12, 2020 Author Share Posted August 12, 2020 Current temp 91/DP 77/RH 63% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Seabreeze storms popped mid island, just sitting there, hear the thunder from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 0.20” here from the first showers that have since dissipated, plus 0.11” from the storms this morning. Already more rain than Isaias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Pretty brutal today, 94/75/107 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Hearing a lot of thunder in Long Beach. Looks like something might be going up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: there's a thread for the storms - Bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Over the past hour, the temperature crashed from a daily high of 93 degrees to 73 degrees in Philadelphia as a heavy thunderstorm moved in. 1.00” rain was recorded during for the hourly period ending at 2:54 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 12, 2020 Author Share Posted August 12, 2020 Picked up 0.73" of rain so far today. Current temp 78/DP 76/RH 93% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Dew is 77 at ISP and here. Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 25 minutes ago, psv88 said: Dew is 77 at ISP and here. Incredible. Miami like out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Mostly missed the rain today 0.05"...Currently 79/72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 12, 2020 Share Posted August 12, 2020 Quick SST rebound back to 80° about 75 NM east of NJ. NY Harb Entrance 1950 74 200/ 6/ 8 1016.2 1/ 4 20 S Fire Island 1950 76 230/ 4/ 4 1016.3 2/ 4 Great South Bay 1930 77 170/ 10/ 10 N/A 23 SSW Montauk P 1950 76 220/ 4/ 4 1016.9 2/ 4 15 E Barnegat Li 1926 75 N/A 2/11 Hudson Canyon 1950 80 1017.4 2/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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