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August 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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Morning thoughts...

Yesterday, LaGuardia Airport recorded a minimum temperature of 80 degrees. That was the 7th 80-degree or above minimum temperature this year, which ties the record set in 2002.

A frontal boundary will be located just to the north and west of cities such as Newark and New York City. As a result temperatures will again rise into the upper 80s across the region. A few locations could reach 90 degrees.

Along the frontal boundary, heavy thunderstorms could develop, especially this afternoon and evening. An area that runs from Washington, DC to Armonk could see locations receive excessive rainfall. The HREF ensemble mean highlights the rainfall risk for Philadelphia and Washington, DC. South and east of the front should see less rain. Parts of Long Island may see little or no rain this afternoon and evening.

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August 8th to 20th has been our most active time of the year for 3.00” or greater rainfalls since 2011. The historic 1000 year event happened at ISP during this period in 2014. So the models indicating varying degrees of heavy rain potential during this period may be correct. The historic Sparta flood also occurred during this same time of the year back in 2000.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/HistoricFlooding_081314

https://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hdsc/aep_storm_analysis/

https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2001/0104/report.pdf

3.00” or greater events since 2011

2019

8-8....Livingston TWP, NJ...3.21

2018

8-11 to 8-13 NWS Upton........6.60

8-7.......North Merrick..............4.73

2017

8-18......East Shoreham....3.80

2016

8-20.....Calverton.....3.85

2014

8-13.....JFK...3.26....ISP....13.51
 

2011

8-15...EWR...6.56...NYC...6.37...LGA...6.64...JFK....7.80...BDR....3.17....ISP...6.49....Lido Beach....10.20

 

 

 

 

 

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7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks Uncle, this is a wealth of info!

On a note about a different kind of storm, the Perseids are really good tonight!  Around 11 PM I saw a few really bright ones that seemed to pass just over my house!  One really notable one that changed color from golden to red and after it streaked across really low I heard a sound, almost like the sound of a pebble hitting something?  Would that be a bolide?  How are the sky conditions over there?  I'm still in the Poconos for a couple more days.

 

where in the Poconos?...My son has a house in Wild Acres in Dingmans Ferry...I've been going there for 48 years...

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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

Yesterday, LaGuardia Airport recorded a minimum temperature of 80 degrees. That was the 7th 80-degree or above minimum temperature this year, which ties the record set in 2002.

A frontal boundary will be located just to the north and west of cities such as Newark and New York City. As a result temperatures will again rise into the upper 80s across the region. A few locations could reach 90 degrees.

Along the frontal boundary, heavy thunderstorms could develop, especially this afternoon and evening. An area that runs from Washington, DC to Armonk could see locations receive excessive rainfall. The HREF ensemble mean highlights the rainfall risk for Philadelphia and Washington, DC. South and east of the front should see less rain. Parts of Long Island may see little or no rain this afternoon and evening.

I'm curious to see whose ideas pan out for later today, you or WDrag who seems to feel that the T-storm line will be 20-30 miles south of this.

Similar to the differences in winter this "wet" period for much of the Metro Area has been anything but here in Putnam County. For all intents the dry period started in early June and hasn't changed. I did get some rains in July and about an inch so far this month but all told it's about 5" in total since 6/1 which is very light for this area and it's really starting to show. Much of the flora is showing late summer/early fall colors and trees in the usual spots are beginning to turn but this is 2 weeks earlier than even their regular schedule. The forest understory all faded and much of it died off already which is also several weeks early, the stress is evident. On the upside the dryness has allowed the bees and other pollinators to flourish far above the levels of the last couple of years, I have more bees in the garden this year than any other since the early years of this century. 

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84/76  steamy.  Storms timing will determine if places reach 90.  Dew point overdose alert.  Thu - Fri more storms and clouds keeping temps down and keeping the Friday streak for rain th past month or so.  Weekend onshore flow warm and humid but near average by way of higher minimums. 90s interruption 8/13 - 8/20ish.

Mon 8/17 pending on storms could be the lone warm day of the work week otherwise more Florida-ish pattern stagnant with some real rain makers possile  Cooler air may be blunted to the north into NYC/NEw Engalnd 8/18 - 8/20.

 

Last week to 10 days Rockies ridge nudges east into the Plains with WAR expanding west.  Timing may push strong heat to close the month? Have we seen the highest temps this summer yet?

 

 

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1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

Much of the flora is showing late summer/early fall colors and trees in the usual spots are beginning to turn but this is 2 weeks earlier than even their regular schedule. The forest understory all faded and much of it died off already which is also several weeks early, the stress is evident. On the upside the dryness has allowed the bees and other pollinators to flourish far above the levels of the last couple of years, I have more bees in the garden this year than any other since the early years of this century. 

The storm caused  leaf burn on the south facing side of all the trees here in SW Suffolk. Those brown leaves are falling from the trees in quantities that we normally see later in the fall. So the landscapers had to come by yesterday and do a special leaf cleanup. But the ground is completely covered with leaves again today. The tropical dew points and heat just doesn’t match up with all the falling leaves.

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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The storm caused  leaf burn on the south facing side of all the trees here in SW Suffolk. Those brown leaves are falling from the trees in quantities that we normally see later in the fall. So the landscapers had to come by yesterday and do a special leaf cleanup. But the ground is completely covered with leaves again today. The tropical dew points and heat just doesn’t match up with all the falling leaves.

some burn here too and I'm 5 miles inland from the sound. I also have salt on my south facing windows...   Nothing like what you're describing but you all face the open Atlantic vs the sound.

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1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

I'm curious to see whose ideas pan out for later today, you or WDrag who seems to feel that the T-storm line will be 20-30 miles south of this.

Similar to the differences in winter this "wet" period for much of the Metro Area has been anything but here in Putnam County. For all intents the dry period started in early June and hasn't changed. I did get some rains in July and about an inch so far this month but all told it's about 5" in total since 6/1 which is very light for this area and it's really starting to show. Much of the flora is showing late summer/early fall colors and trees in the usual spots are beginning to turn but this is 2 weeks earlier than even their regular schedule. The forest understory all faded and much of it died off already which is also several weeks early, the stress is evident. On the upside the dryness has allowed the bees and other pollinators to flourish far above the levels of the last couple of years, I have more bees in the garden this year than any other since the early years of this century. 

12z guidance (RGEM, NAM, and HRRR) are in line with Walt Drag’s thinking. 

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2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

84/76  steamy.  Storms timing will determine if places reach 90.  Dew point overdose alert.  Thu - Fri more storms and clouds keeping temps down and keeping the Friday streak for rain th past month or so.  Weekend onshore flow warm and humid but near average by way of higher minimums. 90s interruption 8/13 - 8/20ish.

Mon 8/17 pending on storms could be the lone warm day of the work week otherwise more Florida-ish pattern stagnant with some real rain makers possile  Cooler air may be blunted to the north into NYC/NEw Engalnd 8/18 - 8/20.

 

Last week to 10 days Rockies ridge nudges east into the Plains with WAR expanding west.  Timing may push strong heat to close the month? Have we seen the highest temps this summer yet?

 

 

will the WAR retrograde scoop up another hurricane?

ecmwf-ens_z500a_atl_fh168-240.gif

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Quick SST rebound back to 80° about 75 NM east of NJ.

 

NY Harb Entrance 1950               74  200/  6/  8 1016.2          1/ 4
20 S Fire Island 1950               76  230/  4/  4 1016.3          2/ 4
Great South Bay  1930            77     170/ 10/ 10   N/A
23 SSW Montauk P 1950            76     220/  4/  4 1016.9          2/ 4
15 E Barnegat Li 1926               75                N/A           2/11
Hudson Canyon    1950               80              1017.4          2/10
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