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July Banter 2020


George BM
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  • WxUSAF pinned this topic
2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I move to cancel the second half of 2020 and declare today January 1, 2021.

And just where have YOU been? We are running 40-50+ degrees F above average with no sign of any snow coming at all. Why is there no panic room yet?! There are no survivors left on these boards expect for me... and probably Mappy. The screams from the tormented souls are absolutely deafening!  

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1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

Downside to the heat while working from home - A/C bills

oh yeah. ours too is pretty high. always is with the pool too this time of year, so double yay!

but on the flip side, i've only had to fill my car twice in 3+ months, no monthly childcare payments and somehow still managing to keep weekly grocery trip to under $200

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How miserable will it get if there is a major second wave (assuming we ever finish the 1st) in the fall/winter, the football season gets stopped, Thanksgiving then Christmas pretty much are ruined, and the long range guidance is correct and we get another non winter with no snow...because jokes aside all those events are probably odds on favorites to happen right now. 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

How miserable will it get if there is a major second wave (assuming we ever finish the 1st) in the fall/winter, the football season gets stopped, Thanksgiving then Christmas pretty much are ruined, and the long range guidance is correct and we get another non winter with no snow...because jokes aside all those events are probably odds on favorites to happen right now. 

I can see Mother Nature trolling us hard next winter in that it will show snowstorms that dissapear at the last second or have heavy QPF events (like 2"+) but temps in the mid 30s for all

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

How miserable will it get if there is a major second wave (assuming we ever finish the 1st) in the fall/winter, the football season gets stopped, Thanksgiving then Christmas pretty much are ruined, and the long range guidance is correct and we get another non winter with no snow...because jokes aside all those events are probably odds on favorites to happen right now. 

Ever see that (ridiculous) movie Click?  Yeah the one with the remote control!  Well this pandemic would be a bona-fide event to use the skip button on!

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7 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

How miserable will it get if there is a major second wave (assuming we ever finish the 1st) in the fall/winter, the football season gets stopped, Thanksgiving then Christmas pretty much are ruined, and the long range guidance is correct and we get another non winter with no snow...because jokes aside all those events are probably odds on favorites to happen right now. 

Models showing a non winter? That's fantastic! Big winter incoming. 

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56 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Models showing a non winter? That's fantastic! Big winter incoming. 

The most reliable hint at this point is where the ENSO seems to be heading. LR climate  models are all low skill, esp at this range. Goes without saying. That said, the CFS is on one of its "good" runs lately. Pretty decent overall h5 look for the winter months, and check out that monster west based -NAO for Feb, with a broad trough underneath.

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7 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The most reliable hint at this point is where the ENSO seems to be heading. LR climate  models are all low skill, esp at this range. Goes without saying. That said, the CFS is on one of its "good" runs lately. Pretty decent overall h5 look for the winter months, and check out that monster west based -NAO for Feb, with a broad trough underneath.

Man, with all the crazy things happening in 2020...not getting a crazy winter would be just like us, lol But seriously, though...what about all the dang low solar we've been having? Are we STILL gonna need another year to see whatever "lag effect" there is? Don't let this be the one time in our history where it didn't help us, lol

(Now I'd imagine they'd mark THIS year as the official minimum, right?)

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17 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Man, with all the crazy things happening in 2020...not getting a crazy winter would be just like us, lol But seriously, though...what about all the dang low solar we've been having? Are we STILL gonna need another year to see whatever "lag effect" there is? Don't let this be the one time in our history where it didn't help us, lol

(Now I'd imagine they'd mark THIS year as the official minimum, right?)

I believe this winter will likely fall in the solar min period, or very close. What that means exactly as far as sensible weather, I think is highly debatable. Just because a solar min may have had some correlation to say, HL blocking in some past winters, does not mean that will be the case with the upcoming winter. Plenty of other factors to consider, with many being nebulous, not to mention these "relationships" can shift back and forth over time. Throw in climate change and, well, you get the picture. We just can't know.

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2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I believe this winter will likely fall in the solar min period, or very close. What that means exactly as far as sensible weather, I think is highly debatable. Just because a solar min may have had some correlation to say, HL blocking in some past winters, does not mean that will be the case with the upcoming winter. Plenty of other factors to consider, with many being nebulous, not to mention these "relationships" can shift back and forth over time. Throw in climate change and, well, you get the picture. We just can't know.

 

2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Fwiw, latest ENSO update from CPC/NCEP still has equal chances of ENSO neutral or La Nina for fall and winter. My gut says weak Nina for the winter months, but that is above my pay grade.

I’m not sold on anything at this range. A weak Nina seems favored though. What that means...typically not great but there is always 1996 during a solar min to hold onto hope. And it certainly wouldn’t mean as bad as last year. But my post was just pointing out things could get a lot worse before they get better. Sobering since most of us are about done with all this. 

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11 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Taking off tomorrow.  Plan to take the GN out cruisin in the morning then going swimming with my 2 daughters :)

We are off today. Hit the store this morning, sitting with coffee now, gonna watch Hamilton with the kid and then spend the afternoon in the pool :sizzle:

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17 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Fwiw, latest ENSO update from CPC/NCEP still has equal chances of ENSO neutral or La Nina for fall and winter. My gut says weak Nina for the winter months, but that is above my pay grade.

Can't imagine the upcoming winter being as bad as last winter but you never know. We do live in the mid Atlantic lol.

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