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Baroclinic Zone

July 2020 Discussion

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nice BDF on the Euro now for next week. That heat dome is getting pinched off much faster now....shocker.

Yup... I was musing with PF the other night how invariably ...this spring into early summer ( so far ..) has been an exercise in futility getting 'biggish heat' looks inside D6. In fact, it has not happened yet successfully - speaking to SNE... Yet the modeling in that time frame would have driven humanity to a special consortium summit for the heads of climate impact regarding the death of civility as we know it...  

Brian and I were speculating that there's something in the back ground physics that's opening open up/exposed by the loss of nearer term offsets that do seem to get smoothed out  -either by model convention/design, or perhaps time... Basically, either removes the nearer term offsets and some underpinning signal expands the ridging... like canvased tendency underneath all else 

That said, we did see the Euro do this on a D7/8 chart last week with a BD and it disappeared within a cycle or two ...so there is some precedence, within that general failed framework, to still oversell BDs by the Euro... It's really like layered errors: too hot of a synopsis in general, is offset by a fictitious BD... when neither happens in lieu of the pedestrian reality.  I can see why the Euro is BD manufacturing though ...the trough in the nearer term ( D4 and 5 ..) residually limps and fills its way into the Maritimes, but has just enough mechanical power to NVA some mass build-up over the region...then, geophysical biases kick in and the model can't resist.  

Here's the the thing... the model(s) et al are subtly introducing flies in the pure hot ointment comparing yesterday's purity, anyway.  And that's usually how the shirking starts...  We could abolish the BD and still end up pedestrian and forgettable for the usual erosion/corrections anyway... 

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Op runs? Lol. There’s no door 

. Toward mid week ridging
should build back in which may signal a warm up; the Climate
Prediction Center has placed southern New England in an excessive
heat outlook for late next week and beyond.

Maybe, maybe not. The GFS goes 7/1911 in the extended with 5+ days of 95-100+ in SNE. Lalaland though.

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6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Maybe, maybe not. The GFS goes 7/1911 in the extended with 5+ days of 95-100+ in SNE. Lalaland though.

I do think we’ll see a couple days of 95-100 . We may get a weak fropa or sonething to trim it a bit, but there’s no denying that beast heat coming East . Maybe it’s not sustained, but it’s coming in some form 

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Could also be a scenario where the modeling et al just rushed it ... which I hate.   I've actually seen summers(winters) that persistently put up delicious menu patterns in the extended, and then it finally happens in the first week of September ...or, the last week of March...as some jipped version as though it was a bate-switch the whole season at hand...ahahaha.  The thing finally gives you a taste of what it was lying about, but still smacks your face by doing it when heat or cold is seasonally muted for being so lagged -

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1 minute ago, klw said:

Gee I wonder where the valleys are?

 

COD-GOES-East-local-Vermont.truecolor.20200709.102120-over=map-bars=.gif

Valleys ? 

nah... that's a brain scan/neuro-tapestry of Gaia ...and is she pissed!

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3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yes, how did it save you?

Someone tried breaking into my house about a month ago, she woke me up and I saw a guy in a red sweat shirt trying to pick the lock. When he heard her barking he eschewed. Cops got his shoe, he ran right out of it. If it wasnt for her he might have got into the house.

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I'm also wondering if this local time span ...the last three days worth, of model cycles is 'thermally sloshing' ... 

I've just noticed that the 00z runs look a little hotter and less subtly muted than the 12z  cycles, and the difference is that either grid initialization is at the other end of the diurnal cycle

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

69/67 after a low of 64.8°. Finally getting the fog to dissipate. 

Cleared off quickly after yesterday's TS and dropped the low here to mid 50s - the dews are just now rolling in.  First "real" TS of the year, though the fairly frequent lightning never got closer than 2 miles.  Probably half of the 0.47" RA came 5:10-5:15 PM, by far the highest rate I've seen for a while.  My wife was driving home from Farmington during the heaviest and our Forester briefly hydroplaned, which was scary and led to her pulling over into the nearest safe place to wait out the RA++.

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39 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Someone tried breaking into my house about a month ago, she woke me up and I saw a guy in a red sweat shirt trying to pick the lock. When he heard her barking he eschewed. Cops got his shoe, he ran right out of it. If it wasnt for her he might have got into the house.

It’s amazing the a few miles from Boston I leave my doors unlocked while you in the country have break ins.   What’s going on there?

 

hot and humid today!

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51 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Someone tried breaking into my house about a month ago, she woke me up and I saw a guy in a red sweat shirt trying to pick the lock. When he heard her barking he eschewed. Cops got his shoe, he ran right out of it. If it wasnt for her he might have got into the house.

Awesome 

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9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It’s amazing the a few miles from Boston I leave my doors unlocked while you in the country have break ins.   What’s going on there?

 

hot and humid today!

If Southbridge, MA is “the country” then my idea of what “country” is is wayyyy off.  

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19 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

If Southbridge, MA is “the country” then my idea of what “country” is is wayyyy off.  

Im almost in Woodstock in the outskirts, I can throw a rock and hit Woodstock so not in the center of town.  Might have been that UCONN student, I got a good look at the guy and I swear it was him. He was in Kevins town and in Thompson so he was working his way up here before going back to Penn.

Storms yesterday looked ominous but we got 9 in and they dissipated anyway. 

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44 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Im almost in Woodstock in the outskirts, I can throw a rock and hit Woodstock so not in the center of town.  Might have been that UCONN student, I got a good look at the guy and I swear it was him. He was in Kevins town and in Thompson so he was working his way up here before going back to Penn.

Storms yesterday looked ominous but we got 9 in and they dissipated anyway. 

Ahh, gotcha.  I was picturing like downtown Southbridge or over by Big Y ha.  But if you are at 715ft that makes more sense... it goes country real fast up on Lebanon Hill.

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85/70... A/C time for sure.  

Thats about as gross a reading you’ll get from MVL but it’ll probably get worse.  Hard to keep high dews from trying to mix out in a mountain valley air field up here, but with the dense fog this morning there’s plenty of low level moisture.

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88 to 90 / 70 to 75 here in interior SNE is enough -

heat adv criteria ...probably could/shoulda been expanded but whatever .. .in "or around" definition should suffice. 

 but wow, ... ASOS DPs are 70 to 75 ... who paid 'em off to admit that -

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91/74 congrats to those who enjoy this sh-stuff. hope they are outside enjoying it and frocking in the dews.

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6 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

91/74 congrats to those who enjoy this sh-stuff. hope they are outside enjoying it and frocking in the dews.

...typically you will find them in a 69.8/49 F environmentally controlled setting

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3 hours ago, weathafella said:

It’s amazing the a few miles from Boston I leave my doors unlocked while you in the country have break ins.   What’s going on there?

 

hot and humid today!

interesting parsing effort for that statement ... buut, the cultural relativity from ethos to ethos in this country is a funny comparison exercise. 

I lived from my unfortunate exposure to this world through 14 years of age in the Battle Creek -Kalamazoo, mid-way Burger King rest-stop between Chicago and Detroit's marvelous blight trades. Back whence, southern lower Michigan pathos was achieved by exited failed mid 20th Century industrial islets amid a sea of otherwise cow-shit and corn-stalks as far as the eye could see.  It's changed ... ing, in the last 20 years... with farm-lands recovered and converted into single-story mall complexes and a lot of triglyceride restaurants that skirt college arty wannabes ...but at least they're trying. 

Back in the day... you bolted your car with a double fractal encryption encoded locking systems that God couldn't get into if it meant saving the Cosmos if you dared run into the corner store for a bottle of "pop" - as they called sodas there.  Houses?  Forget it... you posted Ninjas with light sabers.

My family moved to Rockport Massachusetts early in the summer of '84.  No one locked anything.  I thought that was the weirdest thing I'd ever heard of...  At a friend's house, we leave, "Aren't you gonna lock the door?" furled confusion in the face.  He looks at me like I just arrived from planet Zarcon and so it's understandable that I don't know the ways of the human species, "Noooo ...why would anyone do that?"  

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1 hour ago, Bostonseminole said:

Disgusting, I assume the 3 amigos are dancing outside naked.8324c6013ae6c57ff77e32524b45feef.jpg

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Assuming I’m one of the 3 yes!  Just back from my mid day walk-nice and sweaty.

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