dryslot Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 May have to keep one eye on this for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 Someone ask for crazy Unk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Someone ask for crazy Unk? Again as with the EPS, like 10-20% of those runs would be absolutely disastrous assuming Teddy becomes as strong as forecasted, along with the baroclinic forcing as it starts to transition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 What a sick angle Teddy is taking from yesterday to Sunday for a monster SE swell . Ruggles- Newport looks like a lock for 12-15 foot faces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 We excited yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 Lock in a hit. What a few days this could be. I go to cape with my buddies this weekend. Hurricane hits few days later. Then I travel to Florida for 1.5 wks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 It almost smacks of a Sandy scenario, only up the coast... But the bigger picture differentiates significantly in that we don't see a down stream ..west-based -NAO block ...that was part of Sandy's impetus in turning left. In this case, the left turn is a purer capture by U/A in the simultaneous process of cutting off. Again, the Euro tends to too much curved signature in the flow characteristic as a bias in this time range in question - and hate to say for the hopefuls ...the EPS tends to fallow it's operational lead more so than other guidance camps. Example... GFS and GEFS will part company for more frequently - So, this EPS may just be mirroring/concertedly like it normally does and may not be any more portending of much - We need support ... it's that simple. We need some other arbiter modeling resources to corroborate ... It's time sensy tho too - I mean, three day from now, if the Euro still showing this mess than it's more believable - probably.. Just saying 'for now' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 13 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: We excited yet? Been there since that ICON run yesterday my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 18Z GFS laughs at the Euro, OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 18Z GFS laughs at the Euro, OTS Favored solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 Not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 Tommy ain’t hitting Bermuda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Tommy ain’t hitting Bermuda Teds brother? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 The GFS hath spoken. Shut 'er down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 15 minutes ago, Hoth said: The GFS hath spoken. Shut 'er down. I get that this is an incredibly precise setup that will most likely not happen, but how is a single shift in the GFS more accurate than days of EPS runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 28 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 18Z GFS laughs at the Euro, OTS 18z GEFS has some closer members now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 Just now, tiger_deF said: I get that this is an incredibly precise setup that will most likely not happen, but how is a single shift in the GFS more accurate than days of EPS runs? I was being facetious. I have very little faith in the GFS, given its historical performance. It also kept finding weaknesses and sending Sandy out to sea when most other guidance was locked in for days. That said, I have no expectation as far as the final outcome. A quick exit to sea is an entirely reasonable outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 Holding out hope but we've seen this many times before - Euro/EPS on an island for 2 or 3 cycles, other models slowly capitulate to Euro, while the Euro slowly trends less favorable so the end result is meh. If 00z and 12z repeat or continue to get more exotic then I guess maybe its onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 The GFS was trending synoptically towards the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 18z EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 18z EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 18z EPS? The Euro isn't even out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The Euro isn't even out yet Thought it was 6:45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 18z EPS? You can look at it at 9pm on weathernerds.. might be past your bedtime though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 Just now, ineedsnow said: You can look at it at 9pm on weathernerds.. might be past your bedtime though? Oh yeah .. I’ll be out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drstuess Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 What a sick angle Teddy is taking from yesterday to Sunday for a monster SE swell . Ruggles- Newport looks like a lock for 12-15 foot faces Paging McGulps!Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 30 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: That's alot of damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 12 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: That's alot of damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 That laugh when he fires up the chainsaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 18z eps looks like the mean is a bit spread out and a tad west of 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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