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George BM

May Discobs 2020

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5 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

GFS really is a turd of a model. Needs fixed.

I’m not qualified to say but have to speculate how easy the fix will be. Somehow it took the old gfs cold bias and put it on hyperdrive. Wonder how far away a “fix” is. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

I’m not qualified to say but have to speculate how easy the fix will be. Somehow it took the old gfs cold bias and put it on hyperdrive. Wonder how far away a “fix” is. 

Yeah it is pretty consistent with it too. Seems to mess up the stream interactions and what specific vorticity impulses to key on. In the end, way late, it corrects. It pretty much got there at 12z today. Looking  more like the rest of the guidance.

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Latest Euro keeps possibility alive imo for seeing May flakes in the n+w burbs.  Came in a bit colder at 850 and at the surface with ample moisture still overhead.  Love to see a incredibly anomalous May trash can whitner :weenie: here.

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15 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah it is pretty consistent with it too. Seems to mess up the stream interactions and what specific vorticity impulses to key on. In the end, way late, it corrects. It pretty much got there at 12z today. Looking  more like the rest of the guidance.

If the temperature bias is pronounced enough that would throw off everything else. 

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26 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Latest Euro keeps possibility alive imo for seeing May flakes in the n+w burbs.  Came in a bit colder at 850 and at the surface with ample moisture still overhead.  Love to see a incredibly anomalous May trash can whitner :weenie: here.

It would be wild to go from snow to like mid 80s in 10 days.  

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27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Wasn’t there some site that had the euro for free? 

 

12 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Weather.us

Also Pivotal Weather. Though recently skew-t soundings went behind a paywall. But there is a lot more free Euro data on Pivotal than any other free ECMWF site that I personally know of.

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It would be wild to go from snow to like mid 80s in 10 days.  

Not May, but back in April of 1985 (in Calvert County) I saw snow squalls with grass whitening one day, and temps in the low 90s five days later.

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2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It would be wild to go from snow to like mid 80s in 10 days.  

That’s happened plenty of times in early April I would guess

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10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

3knam coming around.  Lookin snowier. 

 

 

 

And its almost mid May :lol:

Timing looks good ...after 8pm most likely 

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59 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Not May, but back in April of 1985 (in Calvert County) I saw snow squalls with grass whitening one day, and temps in the low 90s five days later.

I saw it go the other way in March 1990. There were three days of temps in the upper 80’s followed by a dump of wet snow a couple of days later.  I was in Rockville and the snow accumulated on grass, trees and car tops during the day.

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14 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

I saw it go the other way in March 1990. There were three days of temps in the upper 80’s followed by a dump of wet snow a couple of days later.  I was in Rockville and the snow accumulated on grass, trees and car tops during the day.

I remember something very similar to your account in late March or early April but I was sure it was 94' or 95'

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37 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I remember something very similar to your account in late March or early April but I was sure it was 94' or 95'

I don’t recall anything from those years, though I know we had a snowfall in 1994 around the 18th of March and then Spring finally arrived with 80° temperatures a few days later.

Here is March 1990 at BWI with the very early heat wave from 3/12-16 followed by accumulating snow on the 20th, 24th and 25th.

BD8EDE0F-5B5F-4C27-AE61-BB4B3DD2897B.thumb.jpeg.b0439a2b60fa1fee08bb867233286681.jpeg

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Seems like we flip fairly quickly around mid-month from this awful pattern.  12z Euro OP has temps in the low 80s next Friday in DC (I know I don’t take it verbatim since its an OP at range).  But ensembles also showing the pattern change. 

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

I remember something very similar to your account in late March or early April but I was sure it was 94' or 95'

Early april 1990. I think it was actually April 3rd. Rain started mixing with snow late in the afternoon then flipped to all Snow. It was moderate to heavy at times. Snowed until the early morning hours. 2-3 inches total in Owings Mills. Pretty legitimate event for so late in the season and it was well forecasted.

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