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May Discobs 2020


George BM
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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Also ...any meso banding could bump things up locally as u know :raining:

True, but it's going to be spread out over several days, and with the reduced continental aircraft data we've been busting high on QPF forecasting by over 50% since March.  As of now, it doesn't appear to be a widespread issue unless things change quickly.

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Also... decent pwats and  orographic lift with the possible persistent wind direction you'd think would be a factor along the  eastern facing slopes of the apps and foot hills .

Yea, this setup favor the I-81 corridor more than anyone else. Us low landers are probably going to just get some wet weather. At least my young grass will win out. 

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These convoluted  setups always look "impressive" on guidance at this time frame. A subtropical low and at least 2 other disturbances interacting in some way, in an overall larger scale trough. Probably will be some showers here and there from Sunday through Wed, but nothing even close to a washout for any particular period.

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19 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Definitely true sometimes . Verbatim Euro gets impressive rains with just combining 2 shortwaves ...not really interacting directly with the Atlantic energy verbatim. 

The Atlantic low looks to escape eastward, but it could inhibit lift on the western side. One possible reason guidance may have the best rains further inland currently, in addition to the 2 shortwaves potentially congealing to the west/sw of our region in the mountains. For now it's something interesting to monitor. If I had to make a call now, I would say the best chance for heavier rain would be in the mountains w/sw of here, with some showery periods further to the east.

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2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The Atlantic low looks to escape eastward, but it could inhibit lift on the western side. One possible reason guidance may have the best rains further inland currently, in addition to the 2 shortwaves potentially congealing to the west/sw of our region in the mountains. For now it's something interesting to monitor. If I had to make a call now, I would say the best chance for heavier rain would be in the mountains w/sw of here, with some showery periods further to the east.

The Spring Sandy is coming. I cannot see this getting further east than 65W. The synoptics simply don't support it. We will be in for an extended period of multiple interactions with the cutoff low which is making this May a very special one.

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44 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Last week we were in the 40s and 50s with  850 temps down to -8C or so.  This upcoming week we’ll be in the 40s and 50s with 850s of +8 or higher.  Multiple ways to lose around here.

      well said!     At least last week, we watched places further north being even more cold and miserable (with some snow!), but next week, we'll watch it be 80 by Hudson's Bay and 75 in Maine.

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13 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Euro has rain through Saturday am

3-6" 

Ninjd 

It never really develops the sub tropical low . Not much of a vort signature or surface reflection. The ull is a beast though . 20-35 winds and rain or showers  for 4/5 days 

I think it probably works out better(for a more widespread rain event) if the subtropical low gets out of the way. A phase seems like a low probability, but if it hangs closer to the coast near our latitude there may be an area of subsidence on the northern/western side. 

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