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George BM

March Discobs 2020

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20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Sprinkle watch has been upgraded to a sprinkle WARNING

Yeah that was pathetic. Oh well. We don’t do much right around these parts 

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Holy sh-t. Just had some of the strongest wind gusts I’ve experienced since we moved 4.5 years ago. Had to be above 50mph, maybe pushing 60-70. Just intense roar. Moved the basketball hoop that’s weighed down with a couple hundred pounds of sand. Completely came out of nowhere.

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Holy sh-t. Just had some of the strongest wind gusts I’ve experienced since we moved 4.5 years ago. Had to be above 50mph, maybe pushing 60-70. Just intense roar. Moved the basketball hoop that’s weighed down with a couple hundred pounds of sand. Completely came out of nowhere.

       There has been discussion about this line over in the severe thread.    It's been going for a couple of hours now.

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4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Holy sh-t. Just had some of the strongest wind gusts I’ve experienced since we moved 4.5 years ago. Had to be above 50mph, maybe pushing 60-70. Just intense roar. Moved the basketball hoop that’s weighed down with a couple hundred pounds of sand. Completely came out of nowhere.

Woke me up around 11:30. And yeah, the gusts were crazy. Almost went downstairs to move our dogs out of the family room because we have several big trees overhanging it.

I found it interesting how the gusts played out though. Normally you see the winds build into the bigger gusts. But what we saw were the bigger gusts were hitting without any warning. Kind of reminded me of what you see with a down burst. 

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Saturday looks like it may be our last frost of the season based on the weather forecast. Still a chance of frosts later in march and the 1st week of April, but it shuts off after that. This year it may shut off within the next 2 weeks.

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I'll post this here since it's not really mid/ long range. 

Friday evening system...

NE MD pummeled!! :mapsnow:

ref1km_ptype.us_ma.png

snku_acc.us_ma.png

Actually this inverted trough look has been on and off on alot of guidance moving around from NYC to east PA to ne Md  . Ensembles have consistently shown at least a cluster of possibilities over the last few days . Probably favors ne of us but something to watch .

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Icon actually verbatim is the closest with the coastal low  I've seen . Looks like the ull energy momentarily catches the ss energy and tugs our low further nw . Interesting run but probably a blip . 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_14.png

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11 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Here's the 3k version 

 

nam-nest-conus-md-total_snow_kuchera-3582400.png

still a chance? 

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40 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Might see some snow in the air in some places. Maybe a mulch coater lol.

If they get enough snow in the poconos or deep creek I’ll take the kids up to play and go sledding Saturday so I’m tracking for that reason. But for our area even if we get some banding outside elevation areas boundary temps are ugly. 

Taking my 5 year old to ski at Liberty Sunday. Should be nice and warm, perfect to learn at his age. 

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@showmethesnow @losetoa6 @mappy I think for lower elevations it would be a struggle due to boundary temps regardless but for our area IF that inverted trough feature ends up over us we could get a surprise.  It's now getting close enough to consider it seriously.  ATT most guidance suggests it will end up northeast of us...but not by much.  The GGEM actually nails us with about .75 qpf from that.  It's 1-2 degrees too warm for accumulations but I doubt that...places with some elevation that end up under that band will likely get some accumulation given the very cold temps aloft.  All guidance is juicing up that band, and I believe that, there is a pretty strong mid level convergence zone along the trough between the coastal and NS system.  I do think it is likely a decent band of heavy precip develops somewhere in that zone, and while I favor northeast of us, we are close enough that it's not out of the question our area gets something.  One more slight adjustment west and we are into it. 

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14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@showmethesnow @losetoa6 @mappy I think for lower elevations it would be a struggle due to boundary temps regardless but for our area IF that inverted trough feature ends up over us we could get a surprise.  It's now getting close enough to consider it seriously.  ATT most guidance suggests it will end up northeast of us...but not by much.  The GGEM actually nails us with about .75 qpf from that.  It's 1-2 degrees too warm for accumulations but I doubt that...places with some elevation that end up under that band will likely get some accumulation given the very cold temps aloft.  All guidance is juicing up that band, and I believe that, there is a pretty strong mid level convergence zone along the trough between the coastal and NS system.  I do think it is likely a decent band of heavy precip develops somewhere in that zone, and while I favor northeast of us, we are close enough that it's not out of the question our area gets something.  One more slight adjustment west and we are into it. 

I'm over winter, so it wont break my heart if it doesn't pan out. but i would be happy to see something wintry too. 

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9 minutes ago, mappy said:

I'm over winter, so it wont break my heart if it doesn't pan out. but i would be happy to see something wintry too. 

That's kind of where I am.  I am not spending nearly as much time analyzing anything now as I would in mid winter.  But if we get something...great.  I don't think this is high probability for us.  These inverted trough setups are incredibly tricky to pin down, but sometimes they can deliver a nice surprise with a relatively narrow but heavy band of snow.  While it's not likely to be us...its close enough to mention its a possibility.  

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One last point...there is likely to be two periods of potential, one Friday as the trough crosses the area and the moisture convergence along the trough from the coastal causes banding to develop along the trough axis (kind of a mini deform zone), and another early Saturday morning as the phasing takes place and the old dying NS feature pinwheels/retrogrades as the upper low passes to our east.  The first might have the better chance of heavier precip but the second coming at night and with even colder temps aloft might have the best chance at some light accumulations.  

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32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

One last point...there is likely to be two periods of potential, one Friday as the trough crosses the area and the moisture convergence along the trough from the coastal causes banding to develop along the trough axis (kind of a mini deform zone), and another early Saturday morning as the phasing takes place and the old dying NS feature pinwheels/retrogrades as the upper low passes to our east.  The first might have the better chance of heavier precip but the second coming at night and with even colder temps aloft might have the best chance at some light accumulations.  

Agree ...looks like 2 shots . Did you see the latest Euro ..it appears it does at least a partial capture of the coastal low . NS a bit quicker and more robust . Actually hints at developing the possible mini deform band you spoke of Friday afternoon north of us . Interesting 

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