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Tar Heel Snow

One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event

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9 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

All 100 North Carolina counties are under either a Winter Storm Warning or a Winter Weather Advisory.  Murphy to Manteo.

 

And the 06z NAM is mouth watering.

Thanks!  Any chance you could post an image of 6z NAM snowfall?  3k?

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Radar looks juicier than the models show... especially in the foothills... this is definitely going to be a nowcast situation

 

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Just now, eyewall said:

6z 3km NAM (10:1). Kuchera is slightly higher but not by much.

 

 

Looks probable to me. Battle lines in the usual spots of course. I'll bet somewhere along 74 overperforms on this. In about an hour they line up to cliffs as soon as the temp doesn't drop as fast they expect due to evap-cooling :arrowhead:

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7 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Looks probable to me. Battle lines in the usual spots of course. I'll bet somewhere along 74 overperforms on this. In about an hour they line up to cliffs as soon as the temp doesn't drop as fast they expect due to evap-cooling :arrowhead:

a little bizarre for me to see that 6.0 finger into Chatham county and 3.0 by Va. line

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Wow radar looks impressive.

Good luck guys and gals. Considering how crappy this winter has been.

Rooting for a over preformer. 

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Just now, frazdaddy said:

a little bizarre for me to see that 6.0 finger into Chatham county and 3.0 by Roxboro

It's just crazy that ENC could jackpot near the end of Feb. It'll be super interesting to see the final accumulations out there. Gonna probably be a fun one where if you're just 10 miles away you get totally screwed while they get 2+. Looks good for you though. Gonna be a beaut on the farm! 

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2 minutes ago, FLweather said:

Wow radar looks impressive.

Good luck guys and gals. Considering how crappy this winter has been.

Rooting for a over preformer. 

so far QPF doesn't appear to be an issue. We just have to watch those temps.

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Looks probable to me. Battle lines in the usual spots of course. I'll bet somewhere along 74 overperforms on this. In about an hour they line up to cliffs as soon as the temp doesn't drop as fast they expect due to evap-cooling :arrowhead:

And I got battle scars!



.

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Interesting to note the HRRR initialized its 11Z run with the 850 line running through Cornelius, yet the SPC observed 850 line is almost all the way to Monroe. The short range stuff is not going so hot. This is why model watching at this point is a no go.

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Just now, superjames1992 said:

I just wish we were starting off today with a lower temperature/DP.

Yep, where is the cold coming from?  Doesn’t seem like evaporative cooling has low enough DP to get the job done.

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44 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Looks probable to me. Battle lines in the usual spots of course. I'll bet somewhere along 74 overperforms on this. In about an hour they line up to cliffs as soon as the temp doesn't drop as fast they expect due to evap-cooling :arrowhead:

Weenies never change :lol:  Nice to see you drop by. :wub: 

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19 minutes ago, mcblimp95 said:

Interesting to note the HRRR initialized its 11Z run with the 850 line running through Cornelius, yet the SPC observed 850 line is almost all the way to Monroe. The short range stuff is not going so hot. This is why model watching at this point is a no go.

I'd like to throw the Hrrrr out, but it's hard to do.  It still eventually gets to snow but it takes a long time.  Hopefully, it's wrong.  I assume it's solely due to the boundary layer.

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2 hours ago, cwick20 said:

Burrel2 are you really buying this? I believe the warm bubble that often effects eastern Oconee County and western Pickens County will rear its ugly head for this event. I am in Walhalla, about 8 miles from Oconee Nuclear Station and the soundings are razor thin at best. I exppect a sloppy mess at best and plain rain at worst. Looking at the soundings the slightest tick up in temps may allow us to have some sleet mixed but that may be it

I'm not buying it or discounting it. 

You can already see the R/S line on the CC radar saggingn south on the NC/SC border. I do believe it will be snow for the northern half of Oconee/Pickens/Greenville when the heavy rates get here.  

I am not certain if our surface temps will be cold enough for it to stick, but if we get 2 inch per hour rate this afternoon that will stick regardless of surface temps.(and crash surface temps to 32/33 even if they're at 40 before the rates pick up.)

 

 

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NWS in MHX playing up the 264 corridor.....

 

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 320 AM Thurs...Winter Storm Warnings are now in effect for
much of the area, with Winter Weather Advisories continuing for
the rest of Eastern
NC except for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands,
as confidence has increased on a more widespread moderate snow
event with snow totals of 4-6 inches expected generally north of
the Neuse River and then spreading east to the Alligator River.

With some mesoscale banding expected to develop in this area,
locally heavier snow amounts of 6-10 inches are possible.

Further to the south and east, initially warm temps both aloft
and at the surface will limit snow totals as the changeover to
snow will be delayed until 10 pm or midnight (There could be a
few hour period of sleet along and south of US 70 early
tonight). Still amounts of 1-2 inches are expected with some
locally higher amounts of 2-4 inches possible.

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27 minutes ago, Summey said:

Yep, where is the cold coming from?  Doesn’t seem like evaporative cooling has low enough DP to get the job done.

Good news is RDUs dewpoint has dropped 5 degrees since 3AM.

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Snow coming down at a decent clip now in Maggie Valley. Elevated surface starting to accumulate. Light NE winds suggests we may do well in Haywood County.

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1 hour ago, burgertime said:

Looks probable to me. Battle lines in the usual spots of course. I'll bet somewhere along 74 overperforms on this. In about an hour they line up to cliffs as soon as the temp doesn't drop as fast they expect due to evap-cooling :arrowhead:

I'll take that I'm right on Highway 74 and Highway 1 in Rockingham.

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Some good news. 06z 3km NAM is too far north with the warm nose. It had it all the way up to near asheville at 10am . CC radar comfirms it's already crossing the NC/SC border and heading south.

 

12zz 3km NAM has fixed this issue, shows the warm nose much further south at 10am.

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