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Tar Heel Snow

One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event

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We've got about 72 hours to go before we start seeing some precip in our area, we're in NAM range, and I'm seeing a lot of hot threads lately. Let's do the daggum thing.

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I'm sorry if i missed it but is this a cad induced storm? And from what I'm reading north ga outside the mnts won't see much of anything so rooting for you guys in nc/upstate sc to cash in!

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7 minutes ago, ATLMet84 said:

I'm sorry if i missed it but is this a cad induced storm? And from what I'm reading north ga outside the mnts won't see much of anything so rooting for you guys in nc/upstate sc to cash in!

I do not think North Georgia is necessarily out of it at all. The discussion has been geared towards SC and NC because those are some of the most avid posters on the forum, however as the NAM 12k shows (obviously take this with a grain of salt), with crashing temperatures, we could see mixed precip in the second half of the event. 

 

Screen Shot 2020-02-17 at 5.43.30 PM.png

Screen Shot 2020-02-17 at 5.43.50 PM.png

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18z GFS ensembles... wow.  Mean snowfall has went way up for everyone it looks like.  I am way more worried about this trending too far north than too dry at this point.  Even for places like spartanburg,charlotte, fayetteville.

Greensboro to Raleigh has to be feeling good right now. Odds of them getting a major winter storm are well above 50%, imo.

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3 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

18z GFS ensembles... wow.  Mean snowfall has went way up for everyone it looks like.  

Does it have that warm nose? 

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17 minutes ago, LibertyStorm said:

We just got NAM’d

C652BE48-F2EF-4A25-9AAB-4A9954301DE9.jpeg

One thing - though none of the snowmaps are perfect, the Trop Tidbit snow maps that have sleet included give a way overinflated view - I wouldn’t recommend posting those in particular 

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45 minutes ago, Alfoman said:

I do not think North Georgia is necessarily out of it at all. The discussion has been geared towards SC and NC because those are some of the most avid posters on the forum, however as the NAM 12k shows (obviously take this with a grain of salt), with crashing temperatures, we could see mixed precip in the second half of the event. 

 

Screen Shot 2020-02-17 at 5.43.30 PM.png

Screen Shot 2020-02-17 at 5.43.50 PM.png

I was hoping we could get the snow line down to I-20 but that seems like wishing.  At least I can chase for some snow with it being so close.  

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2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

How does the 18z EURO and EPS Look?

Not out yet. 

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43 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

18z GFS suites1790b7a95365abe79de7e2dcd2ec43ab.jpg

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

Well, honestly that's pretty anemic IMO.  Two members seem to make up the mean (separate of eastern nc) .  Coming around perhaps but I wouldn't say the GFS caved.  The NAM is the NAM, but it's showing the real deal by itself at the moment.  If it hangs tough through tomorrow showing a similar wet/cold solution I'll climb back up the cliff.  Hopefully it'll survive past about 9:30 pm though, lol. 

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19 minutes ago, griteater said:

One thing - though none of the snowmaps are perfect, the Trop Tidbit snow maps that have sleet included give a way overinflated view - I wouldn’t recommend posting those in particular 

Yeah here the Kuchera…..

NAMMA_prec_kuchsnow_084.png.fa4d967e4a28618679c768b3eac1350e.png

 

 

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4 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Euro ticks back a bit on QPF. It remains to be not very impressed with this setup. 

Until the ECMWF gets on board I will be very skeptical. Never bet against it, I have seen so many instances of it being right over all the other models.

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Just now, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Until the ECMWF gets on board I will be very skeptical. Never bet against it, I have seen so many instances of it being right over all the other models.

I would tend to agree, but with the previous weekends event it was also paltry with QPF from like day 4 until inside the last 24 hrs. The only reason I'm willing to be at least somewhat hopeful even with it showing that. 

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