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One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event


Tar Heel Snow
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6 minutes ago, Lookout said:

I imagine snow would be more widespread than what the icon shows. It did poorly capturing the surface cooling from last weekend's snow. For example, Guaranteed there would be a faster changeover in the upstate than what its showing. 

I'm assuming the same applies for the N GA Mtns? I thought the run looked good but for some reason it kept it as rain throughout. Seems to me looking at the thermal profiles on basically all the models, it feels like the main limiting factor in this area would be QPF, not temps. I really expected with it showing around 0.5 QPF it would have looked better. 

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10 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

What needs to happen to get rid of that warm nose? 

More robust precip is going to bring a greater threat of warm nosing (850mb low or trough tracking too far north across northern GA/SC)...you want to see a weaker system with a more diffuse 850mb low with still the possiblity of the precip being noteworthy

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2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

If you trend the NAM, ICON, etc back, the westward trend each run on the modeling (with the SLP) is there.

It looks like the low is legit, and as you mentioned, getting stronger and closer to the coast, maybe we get some heavy precip and upslope and rates truly help more people get snow!

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