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Tar Heel Snow

One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event

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1 minute ago, griteater said:

Correct on  RGEM out to hr48, then it flips to the GEM Global after hr48....you can see the resolution change with the pixel size after hr48.  Also, at the bottom, it has Forecast System R for RGEM out to hr48, then it flips to G for Global after hr48

Well , the RGEM looks decent out to 48...

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4 minutes ago, dorkchopper said:

What's the timeframe for this in the Durham area? I haven't seen it really posted anywhere, and if it has been, I overlooked it and I apolize.

Thursday afternoon to early Friday morning.

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5 minutes ago, dorkchopper said:

Sorry for the annoying question (I promise I'll go back to lurking like I have been for the past 9 years).

What's the timeframe for this in the Durham area? I haven't seen it really posted anywhere, and if it has been, I overlooked it and I apolize.

Thank y'all for being so informative and fun to read.

Hey man, I’m also in Durham in American Village. If you believe the NAM, heavy snow would start 1PM Thursday and snow about an inch an hour until Friday Morning.

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9 minutes ago, dorkchopper said:

Sorry for the annoying question (I promise I'll go back to lurking like I have been for the past 9 years).

What's the timeframe for this in the Durham area? I haven't seen it really posted anywhere, and if it has been, I overlooked it and I apolize.

Thank y'all for being so informative and fun to read.

ref1km_ptype.us_ma.png

That hasn't been nailed down, but we will for this exercise, assume the 3K NAM is close. This is the first panel that shows precip of a heavy nature over Durham. If you read the valid (not the init or initialization) on any of these forecast maps, it will tell you the time (this one 18Z), then subtract 5 hours for EST (these maps are all in UTC). So this would suggest this scenario pictured unfolding at 1300 or 1 PM on Thursday.

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1 minute ago, broken024 said:

Have there been any other storms where there was such a huge difference in models at 48 hours? Seems crazy to me.

Yeah, little over a week ago was the same story. Models didn't really converge until inside 24 hrs. 

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35 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Rgem is well south. This storm's outcome is still TBD. Here's 1pm Thursday. NAM has snow ripping across the entire state of NC and most of TN at this point.

Screen Shot 2020-02-18 at 3.57.26 PM.png

When does the HRW's run again burrel2?

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I mean, this thing has warm nose/no real accumulation for CLT proper and south written all over it. How many times have we seen it in recent years, even when GSP is actually calling for measurable accumulation? I think I've had 8+ inch snowfalls turn into an inch or so of slop each of the last 3 winters. And normally the warm nose doesn't even show up as much of an issue until much closer to the event. 

Hate to be a downer, but this just doesn't look good. Now, my in-laws up north/west of Huntersville (and several on the board well north of 85) will probably get some decent snowfall. 

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That "finger" of overrunning precip is showing up on the GFS for WNC. Good run for western part of state through 45

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4 minutes ago, SnowDeac said:

I mean, this thing has warm nose/no real accumulation for CLT proper and south written all over it. How many times have we seen it in recent years, even when GSP is actually calling for measurable accumulation? I think I've had 8+ inch snowfalls turn into an inch or so of slop each of the last 3 winters. And normally the warm nose doesn't even show up as much of an issue until much closer to the event. 

Hate to be a downer, but this just doesn't look good. Now, my in-laws up north/west of Huntersville (and several on the board well north of 85) will probably get some decent snowfall. 

Yep.  I'm obviously not a met so this is really unsophisticated analysis but I have lived in Charlotte my whole life and I could easily see us sitting around waiting for a changeover that doesn't happen until it's too late.  When things look borderline for us it hasn't gone well in recent memory and this looks borderline.  Would love to be wrong.  

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