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Phelps

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    Charlotte (and sometimes Beech)

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  1. Was wondering if we’d get a little moisture in the mix with the cold
  2. I don't know anything about TS tracking but the GFS has this thing pulling out of Charlotte by daybreak Saturday and the NAM even earlier. Euro lingers a bit. No idea if I should trust it but the trends sound like they are for less of an impact for this area. Clemson/NC State is not going to be the mess we initially thought it was going to be.
  3. A wet week then clear everything out with a front on Friday giving us a beautiful 3 day weekend would be just fine by me.
  4. A healthy inch or so where I am on the mountain. Let's see what the NWF can do. The temperature drop was impressive.
  5. Wondering if we can squeeze out an inch or 2 tomorrow up top. Seemed to be looking promising yesterday but the hi res are not looking so hot this morning. Probably just a wait and see given how borderline the temps are.
  6. I left Beech yesterday and all that snow from a week ago seemed to be showing no signs of going anywhere anytime soon. Still a really good scene up there.
  7. Charlotte always seems too far east to get snow, except situations like this when it's too far west.
  8. Half whining half serious question... I understand it is difficult (perhaps impossible) to predict sensible weather 7+ days out. It doesn't surprise me at all that models spit out a variety of solutions and many are wrong. But it just seems to me like something has to be broken if your model routinely spits out a scenario that happens on a few times a century. I guess it doesn't matter because the purpose of these tools is not to predict sensible weather at this range.
  9. Ray mentioned this in his winter forecast in regards to his assessment of 202/21: "The biggest “miss” was at higher elevations along the western escarpment where NW flow snow were few. We have not seen a good NW flow snow in a few years.
  10. Living in Charlotte I am so scarred by WAA and mixing that I can't help but find the warmest looking model and assume it might be even warmer than that. We've just had our hopes crushed too many times in the last 10 years.
  11. Got going here around 4 am. This was at 7. Maybe 8” where I am on Beech Nice to have winter return. 44 and midnight down to 23 right now. https://imgur.com/a/6sVttQe
  12. So do we commend the GFS for being on this from the beginning or ridicule it for putting out 2 foot snow totals? I guess that's a question for tomorrow afternoon!
  13. So does the GFS think it's going to snow 3"/hr for 6 straight hours lol? (in some places)
  14. Just looking at how this plays out on the hi-res models it looks like all this snow has to fall in about 4 hours. I guess that's the entire point with a system like this. I may need to set an alarm to catch the most impressive rates.
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