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Tar Heel Snow

One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event

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14 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Anybody know where to get an 800mb temp map from the nam? That would show the warm nose much better.

Weather nerds 

https://www.weathernerds.org/models/

Also...only has rap, nam, and gfs but old favorite is twister...it shows more levels on the text soundings....sure wish more sites had detailed  text soundings  like they do. It sure helps seeing those ewls. Arl is ok but the annoying security stuff is...well annoying. 

http://www.twisterdata.com/

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8 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

when is the last time you saw the nam overdo a warm nose only to have it trend colder as we got closer to verification? the warm nose will likely be stronger than advertised. believe these 8-10" outputs at your own peril.

In past years the NAM had a tendency to underestimate the warm nose resulting in much of it's snow being sleet, especially on the SW fringes. Dec 18 is a perfect example. It has done very well this year and with it pulling the frozen precipitation line north that is not a good sign for areas south. Certainly could come back south over the next 48 hours though. Profile readings not matching it's precip output though. Profile suggests snow much further South, but output removes virtually all snow from SC.

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2 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:


Verbatim though you’re correct, sorry for the half baked analysis I’m checking the thread via mobile.

Caution on using one temperature layer for warm noses, they can pop up anywhere from 900-700mb

I mean, I’ve had sleet at 20 degrees not because there was a warm layer but because the dang moisture was too shallow. If it can find it, it usually does!

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5 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

And generally, I’d agree with you but it would take some doing to wreck my sounding. Could it happen? Totally. Is it likely as modeled? I don’t think so. 

I generally agree for your area. But I thought the same thing 24-36 hrs ago for my own. I confidently thought that the only limiting factor in my area would be moisture because I was solidly entrenched within the upper level cold on all the models. 

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8 minutes ago, Lookout said:

Weather nerds 

https://www.weathernerds.org/models/

Also...only has rap, nam, and gfs but old favorite is twister...it shows more levels on the text soundings....sure wish more sites had detailed  text soundings  like they do. It sure helps seeing those ewls. Arl is ok but the annoying security stuff is...well annoying. 

http://www.twisterdata.com/

*squinting*
 

what do those letters say? :lol:

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Just now, BornAgain13 said:

Still though , isn't this the best look so far this season?

Looked better yesterday so yes i will stick with him in that 12z not off to good start (realize it is just one model so far)

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Just looking there on weather nerds the warm nose looks most substantial from 750 to 800 mbars and isn't really showing up much at 850. So that's why we can't see it on temp maps on most sites. 

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12 minutes ago, DC2Winston said:

Would you include the Triad as part of the lee side in this setup?  Or a bit further West in the true foothills...

I don't think it would be as much of an issue in Winston and GSO.

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2 minutes ago, broken024 said:

Looked better yesterday so yes i will stick with him in that 12z not off to good start (realize it is just one model so far)

It looked better than this? That’s half a foot of snow from Huntersville to the RDU airport.

 

F8D7E904-F690-4E42-B43D-1EB77DD069F9.png

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3 minutes ago, broken024 said:

Not everyone lives in VA. Nam showing lots of mixing south of 85

Southern foothills area on NC showing 

.5 at the surface on the 12z nam at hour 51. 

Goes below the rest of the time.

 

25 miles above the state line. 

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3 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

It looked better than this? That’s half a foot of snow from Huntersville to the RDU airport.

 

F8D7E904-F690-4E42-B43D-1EB77DD069F9.png

Im in south Charlotte 

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42 minutes ago, eyewall said:

That would be fine by me but I seriously doubt these numbers verify. If we get a dusting that is a win this year though.

I will be the first to admit that I have been adversely critical of your statements on this winter!  Nothing personal I promise!  I guess it was due to your statements of no winter.  The pattern sucks and I get that!  Warm and rain and a day or two of cool and dry!  I would appreciate  your honest thoughts on this system/setup later after the models have hashed out the best they can!

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1 minute ago, BullCityWx said:

*squinting*
 

what do those letters say? :lol:

:lol:B)

Yeah not the best layout and I dont think they have ever  updated that page. 

Anywho, thur going to suck around here...thinking much of north ga/upstate will end up with it being 33 to 35 because of how cold the low levels will be. 

 

 

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Regardless of what happens, the overnight hours on Thursday and early morning hours of Friday will be messy and nasty.  Especially with temps dropping into the 20s as soon as the system departs.

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GFS at Hour 42, I believe that the trajectory looks the tiniest bit more of a SW/NW flow, believe it will come north a tad, though nothings stands out really compared to the 6z.

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2 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

GFS at Hour 42, I believe that the trajectory looks the tiniest bit more of a SW/NW flow, believe it will come north a tad, though nothings stands out really compared to the 6z.

Hour 48, 50-75 mile push north compared to 6z. Also showing a tendency at the same time frame over the last couple of runs (still at 48) of the storm appearing stronger each run. at least in terms of precip rates.

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Greg Fishel from his Facebookl:   "...... In my estimation, the upper level pattern is wrong, the surface high is in the wrong place, and most if not all of the precipitation will fall while temperatures are above freezing. For snow lovers, I do not believe this upcoming late week weather event is going to be your meteorological messiah. Might we see a few flakes? Yes, but every time I venture outside you've got that so what's the big deal??? More to come later today."

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As has been discussed ad nauseam, the high is in the historical exact place for NC snowstorms. It's becoming tiresome to hear mets parrot this falsehood.

 

Hr. 66 GFS: Eastern NC getting absolutely pummeled. 

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2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Another run, another north jog for the GFS and it’s probably not done correcting yet. 

It’s like clockwork aint it. 
 

just doubled my QPF

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