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weatherwiz

February 5-7 Wintry Mess Potential

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I’m becoming more bullish on cold drain but I’m going the MPM route of worrying about QPF if you’re rooting for a higher impact ice storm. It looks like a mundane glaze of a quarter inch or less on many of these runs. There’s still some runs that have higher but they are becoming less in the model ensemble. 

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10 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

I love the County and all, but jeez, can we spread the snow around to southern areas a bit more.

I'm working on pulling some of those totals down to the coast............lol

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26 minutes ago, das said:

Yup, in Charlotte, which I've learned is really pronounced "shalahtt".  While I've learned to love that northerly drain (puts a good east coast CAD to shame), the reverse southerly fire hose is equally impressive when it gets going.

Looks like BTV saw the latest runs and upped the ante.  10-18'' in the WSW now.  Nice.  Work keeps getting in the way of me geeking out...

This still could bust pretty good if the sleet is further NW... maybe convection pumps the heights a bit and the wave amps up?  

The 18z HRRR, RGEM, and even GFS were a tick warmer in the mid levels again...putting best snows north of here.  

There will be a tight NW to SE gradient somewhere along that mid-level freezing line.

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This still could bust pretty good if the sleet is further NW... maybe convection pumps the heights a bit and the wave amps up?  

The 18z HRRR, RGEM, and even GFS were a tick warmer in the mid levels again...putting best snows north of here.  

There will be a tight NW to SE gradient somewhere along that mid-level freezing line.

Those are some of my worries. Though since I’m a pack guy, I’m fine with some sleet in the snow. Makes it durable. 

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8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Too bad Sugarloaf is 6 hours from here.  :(

I'll send you a pic as i'm going by Saturday morning............;)

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5 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Those are some of my worries. Though since I’m a pack guy, I’m fine with some sleet in the snow. Makes it durable. 

Yeah I’ve been saying all along I just want a boat load of frozen QPF.  It all ends up the same in the end.  Need to bolster the pack and adding a lot of SWE is one way to do it.

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please excuse me for asking this, but what are you guys thinking in terms of timing on friday?  My daughter is driving from Ithaca to Sugarbush and I'm thinking she's better off leaving in the morning as opposed to later in the afternoon.  Thanks in advance.

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31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m becoming more bullish on cold drain but I’m going the MPM route of worrying about QPF if you’re rooting for a higher impact ice storm. It looks like a mundane glaze of a quarter inch or less on many of these runs. There’s still some runs that have higher but they are becoming less in the model ensemble. 

Do you believe ASH is in game or more elevation 

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah that’s the time to make hay.  

I think in a general sense it’s 2-4” tomorrow morning, then 12 hours of light mixed precip, followed by 6-12” on Friday....mainly in like 6 hours. 

Call it 8-16” with some mix sandwiched in.

You will go over 20 at Stowe base

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The GFS has that 170 kt jet bomb along and off the EC ...that's why it's overcoming the damming.   It may just be too "damn" much even for positive static stability and inversion.  That's just obscene having two flags at 500 mb over PVD...  with three flags just S of there. 

Probably if this set up had the more 'standard' wind max we'd have had the storm S and damming wins easy but this is looking more and more like just an absurd anomaly with that absolute fantastic fire hose at mid levels.  Hard to rely on conventional wisdom when said bastion of knowledge has almost no occurrence of those sort of parametrics - I admit that.  I've never seen that many 150 kt + flags over that broad a swath since perhaps 1993's March event. Interestingly ... this isn't the first time I've seen those velocities this season, either.

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The GFS has that 170 kt jet bomb along and off the EC ...that's why it's overcoming the damming.   It may just be too "damn" much even for positive static stability and inversion.  That's just obscene having two flags at 500 mb over PVD...  with three flags just S of there. 

Probably if this set up had the more 'standard' wind max we'd have had the storm S and damming wins easy but this is looking more and more like just an absurd anomaly with that absolute fantastic fire hose at mid levels.  Hard to rely on conventional wisdom when said bastion of knowledge has almost no occurrence of those sort of parametrics - I admit that.  I've never seen that many 150 kt + flags over that broad a swath since perhaps 1993's March event. Interestingly ... this isn't the first time I've seen those velocities this season, either.

 Enjoy the new atmospheric paradigm it’s the only atmospheric paradigm you have! 

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1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 Enjoy the new atmospheric paradigm it’s the only atmospheric paradigm you have! 

We have had 200 knot jets in lots of winters

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

We have had 200 knot jets in lots of winters

170-180kt at 500mb is about as high as you will ever see at that level. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

170-180kt at 500mb is about as high as you will ever see at that level. 

300 mb

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All the models have been amped and have tracked a few ticks west today at the surface, Not a good trend for coastal plain and the coast.

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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

All the models have been amped and have tracked a few ticks west today at the surface, Not a good trend for coastal plain and the coast.

GFS probably has the idea with low location, but the thermals are off. Euro seems to like to be too cold and SE with these. 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS probably has the idea with low location, but the thermals are off. Euro seems to like to be too cold and SE with these. 

The SLP for wave 2 has been getting stronger ea run too as it was in the 980mb range and is now low 970mb which is also causing this to track further west over SNE instead of off the coast

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4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The SLP for wave 2 has been getting stronger ea run too as it was in the 980mb range and is now low 970mb which is also causing this to track further west over SNE instead of off the coast

I'm not surprised given the origins of that  s/w. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm not surprised given the origins of that  s/w. 

Lots of convection in the SE tonight too. A little bump up for that downstream ridging.

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