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stormtracker

January 18th Event

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18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Been to Rangely when skiing the loaf. They always have a ton of snow. They don’t quite get the huge totals from coastals though as on the southeast faces of the mountain range. But they hold snowcover due to the cold being protected from coastal warm ups. Having been to rangely and n Conway on the same trips often (combining wildcat and loaf) Rangely will always have more snow otg but in a big storm Conway gets the bigger dump. Trade offs. 

Conway still has snowcover much of winter so I think I would sacrifice the crazy pack Rangely has from November to May...literally they usually still have a 2 foot pack in late April even...to get those crazy coastals. I still want to be able to root for those and watch the crazy death bands on radar.

I like the idea of Conway because it’s a larger town. Gotta be a few good bars. Think Rangeley only has about 1200 people. 
 

Just to the north and west of Auburn-Lewiston would probably be pretty nice. Close to Portland, the ocean, the ski areas.

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22.3 / 15.8

 olney area not looking good - looks like precipitation could be a no go until after noon.  

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

To put it bluntly..a winter storm. 

Gfs ticked south a little. Looks decent along mason Dixon line. 

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4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

To put it bluntly..a winter storm. 

Good one.  I’m hitting the sauce tonight too. I’m seeing a 980 off ORF and girls reading Kocin’s book on snowstorms to me.  21/16

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14 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Gfs ticked south a little. Looks decent along mason Dixon line. 

LWX has gone up to 1-3" for Washington County on the point and click forecast.  Think your latitude and elevation might mean you do a little better than me on this one.  Feeling pretty fortunate to be looking at a second snowfall in what has been a +10 January.

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21 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Gfs ticked south a little. Looks decent along mason Dixon line. 

Oz Guidance was collectively better.  Qpf increase was almost across the board. Even the Hrdps which didnt have much if any morning snow band has 1 now.

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Nams juiced up ....especially 3k .

What a mess up in Northern Md tomorrow.  Never hits freezing.  Roads will be a mess up here.

That lull between the am snow and the midday stuff worries me, too much time to let the warm air in aloft. 

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22/8 - heading to bed, I told the kiddo to wake me if she got up and it was snowing. :thumbsup:

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Oz Guidance was collectively better.  Qpf increase was almost across the board. Even the Hrdps which didnt have much if any morning snow band has 1 now.

Yeah that Oz Guidance is a real wizard with the snow ;) (sorry, couldn't resist. Now back to storm focus) 

So is the amount of moisture we get gonna kinda be a nowcasting thing? (how well do the models do with dry air and such ahead of time?)

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10 minutes ago, mappy said:

That lull between the am snow and the midday stuff worries me, too much time to let the warm air in aloft. 

       This is a legit concern.   Most of the 00z hi-res guidance increases the lull time.

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