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stormtracker

January 18th Event

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2 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said:

Still is a nothing event. Just enjoying a conversation and unicorns

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

fair. dont ask for the thread to close again tho. ;) 

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4 minutes ago, H2O said:

80% of the people posting here will do better than me for even this "non-event."  But you know what?  I'll take whatever falls and move on with life.  There are better things to enjoy.  Yes, snow is a wonderful thing and I want as much as I can.  So i will hope my temps are low enough for any precip that falls to be frozen.  If not, then the next day will come and as long as I'm upright for it then thats what matters.

 

That said.  i'm hugging the eff out of the one run last night that had a precip stripe over my yard.

That's what I'm talking about 

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I haven't seen all forecasts, but WBAL seems to be on an island w theirs. 2-4 for the northern areas looks aggressive unless we're talking north of york/harrisburg. 

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1 minute ago, snowfan said:

I haven't seen all forecasts, but WBAL seems to be on an island w theirs. 2-4 for the northern areas looks aggressive unless we're talking north of york/harrisburg. 

i did text with ava a little bit -- high bust potential she said, but she thinks areas along the border will stay colder longer and not flip as quickly. i doubt i see 4", but wouldn't be surprised at 2". 

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fair. dont ask for the thread to close again tho.  

Agreed, I was in to a few to many Hardywoods gingerbread Christmas morning Stouts when I posted yesterday. Will get a good storm to roll in the area by presidents day

 

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

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20 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said:

Agreed, I was in to a few to many Hardywoods gingerbread Christmas morning Stouts when I posted yesterday. Will get a good storm to roll in the area by presidents day

:)

Would love to try that.

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2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

You may be right.  But I got up at 345 to catch a train that is now an hour late because of a tree blown down on the track so I decided to look at the maps.

Can we start a drinking game? Each time Weather Will says "red flag" we take a drink :lol: 

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6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Can we start a drinking game? Each time Weather Will says "red flag" we take a drink :lol: 

Then 2 drinks for every EPS probability map he posts that shows the red nowhere near us.

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54 minutes ago, mappy said:

i did text with ava a little bit -- high bust potential she said, but she thinks areas along the border will stay colder longer and not flip as quickly. i doubt i see 4", but wouldn't be surprised at 2". 

Look at your name-dropping. I love Ava!

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54 minutes ago, mappy said:

i did text with ava a little bit -- high bust potential she said, but she thinks areas along the border will stay colder longer and not flip as quickly. i doubt i see 4", but wouldn't be surprised at 2". 

I agree, my call would probably be 2" up there....unless the NAMs turn out correct lol

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5 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Look at your name-dropping. I love Ava!

Ha! Ava and I are buddies, she visited my kid's school last year, and we just had lunch together a couple weeks ago. She's awesome. 

5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I agree, my call would probably be 2" up there....unless the NAMs turn out correct lol

yeah the NAM gives me pause. 

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It's worth noting that there is really good agreement that there will be a band of snow pushing across the area during the morning tomorrow.    It's narrow, and it won't last long (and it's not clear how far south it will extend), and accumulations won't be great.   BUT, it will fall with temps in the mid 20s, so it will likely cause some travel troubles.

It's also clear that we then get a break before the primary precip band arrives from the west.    How much we can warm before it arrives will of course determine the impacts from that.

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4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The NAMs did improve. So

a little! 6z vs 12z

download (2).png

download (3).png

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2 hours ago, CentralVaNATS said:

Agreed, I was in to a few to many Hardywoods gingerbread Christmas morning Stouts when I posted yesterday. Will get a good storm to roll in the area by presidents day

 

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

Amazing beer.  My favorite.

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6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

GFS brought higher precip close to pa border and overall is wetter to the north of us. Need another 75 miles. 
 

Trying to see positives

looking at pivotal weather for soundings, my area

12z 23 degrees, snow

18z 27 degrees, snow (warm nose is there but its realllllllly shallow)

00z 34 degrees once precip is out of area

i may never flip to rain 

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8 minutes ago, mappy said:

looking at pivotal weather for soundings, my area

12z 23 degrees, snow

18z 27 degrees, snow (warm nose is there but its realllllllly shallow)

00z 34 degrees once precip is out of area

i may never flip to rain 

Yep..I just looked as well since it was showing 4+ in Northern Harford and it's close but like u said its verbatim snow.  Nam at 18z is sleet but it looks very borderline.  Maybe we back into a mostly snow/with minimum sleet event  :weenie:

I got $20 that says u will never go above 32 btw

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yep..I just looked as well since it was showing 4+ in Northern Harford and it's close but like u said its verbatim snow.  Nam at 18z is sleet but it looks very borderline.  Maybe we back into a mostly snow/with minimum sleet event  :weenie:

I got $20 that says u will never go above 32 btw

i'm hopeful we stay mostly snow, but you know how these setups go... always in real time. 

hahahahaha, we shall see! ;) 

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Way less precip out here in Western Loudoun, but temps never look to get above freezing even out this way. Anemic precipitation totals and maybe that is why it doesn't warm as much. Little snow and then light sleet and light rain.. but nothing too exciting.

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Considering I’m not expecting much frozen, if any, the models today at least keep me interested up until now cast time.  That 1048 High and CAD are going to keep it colder than the models are predicting IMO.  If we score any action down here, the N and W crew could do real well.

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1 hour ago, mappy said:

looking at pivotal weather for soundings, my area

12z 23 degrees, snow

18z 27 degrees, snow (warm nose is there but its realllllllly shallow)

00z 34 degrees once precip is out of area

i may never flip to rain 

I’ve been thinking This for a couple days as the Cad (as often is the case) is only showing up now. 
 

good luck. 

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Just now, pasnownut said:

I’ve been thinking This for a couple days as the Cad (as often is the case) is only showing up now. 
 

good luck. 

Can you work some magic and get some precip to show up. 
 

Right now for me the euro is the wettest model. That’s never a good thing because it’s usually dry, and usually right.

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