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January 18th Event


stormtracker
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12 minutes ago, mattie g said:

But if the models don’t matter, then why assume the low will be as strong as modeled?

I assume you mean that their depiction of WAA precip doesn’t matter because they often have trouble with it. Just trying to clarify.

They have the ability to get the strengths of high and lows correctly but they are still bad with where the low will go. Up until about 5/6 years ago and all  2000-2015 we suffered with models which at the 72 hour mark were moving the low from off the SC coast to thru the eastern lakes. At least we don’t have that anymore. I can rely on the strength off the lows or highs for forecasting but the nuances, such as path travelled or waa still elude the models. Considering the incredible technological advances of the last 20 years, models are still woeful.

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59 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said:

Can we just stick a fork in this thread? Maybe models will trend in the right direction, but let's just move on to Jan 24th, start that thread.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

So all of our analysis goes to pot? That’s the way events roll. You don’t shut off a thread because an event doesn’t work out.

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3 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said:

This thread has been on repeat all winter. Chasing unicorns

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then dont read it. just because YOU have no interest, doesn't mean the thread gets shut down. 

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Once again there’s a post-mix/sleet/ice period of snow for an hour or two on the euro for 12z, a bit better/wider area looking than 06z. So I guess mid levels are getting better temps there as the storm passes through. Give me trends that way the rest of the day please, only needs to get a bit better to get I95 in central/NE MD a short second bit of snow.

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Hi res Euro has an inch in the usual spots with a little ice on top. It then dry slots us. It also has that same thin band of snow that the NAM has through NOVA and DC on Saturday morning. I still think it is under doing the CAD. As it does take the Shenandoah Valley above freezing for around 12 hours before the bottom drops out again. We are then below freezing until Wednesday afternoon. So plenty of time for my half inch glacier to form. Here is the 10-1 map from the run.

sn10_acc.us_ma.png

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