Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 13 minutes ago, Interstate said: Should we be looking at the Globals or the Mesos at this point? We just want them to look the same so both. Right now meso's and globals all point to a similar outcome. Now the wobbles will keep us on our toes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This looks like it’s going to be mostly a function of where the heaviest precip sets up. That always makes me uneasy. All snowstorms make me uneasy until they are finished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 The GFS is really fast. It has precip on my doorstep by 9 am, about 2 hours faster than the NAM. Let’s hope the gfs is right on start time and the NAM is right on end time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The GFS is really fast. It has precip on my doorstep by 9 am, about 2 hours faster than the NAM. Let’s hope the gfs is right on start time and the NAM is right on end time. at least they both have a thump, hope that is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just now, usedtobe said: at least they both have a thump, hope that is right I wonder which is more likely. Might have to wait to see how the radar develops. My gut says precip from that direction tends to arrive a bit earlier than is forecast. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Trend so far has been to juice things up just a bit...every bit counts. Though, speed and temps put a ceiling on this it would be nice to see the trend continue. HeRDerPS joins the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I wonder which is more likely. Might have to wait to see how the radar develops. My gut says precip from that direction tends to arrive a bit earlier than is forecast. We shall see Every bit earlier that we can start will help cap the daytime temp rise and take better advantage of the overnight ground temps....and for the coastal plain a good solid thump (even if short-lived) is probably the best shot at getting more than snow TV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 26 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Trend so far has been to juice things up just a bit...every bit counts. Though, speed and temps put a ceiling on this it would be nice to see the trend continue. HeRDerPS joins the trend. That isn’t a uniform trend. Seems specific only to the area between DC and Hagerstown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 17 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That isn’t a uniform trend. Seems specific only to the area between DC and Hagerstown Its pretty much all over central/N/NE MD, SE PA... but no it didn't improve for I-81 (didn't really get worse, either). BWI went from 0.2 to 0.4+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just let me know when we should post the “It’s Happening” gif. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just now, Scraff said: Just let me know when we should post the “It’s Happening” gif. Right after the Euro cuts precip totals in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Is the timing still mid-afternoon? It’s going to be terrible for schools as students are getting out between 2:30-4 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 I'm just hoping for a 1-2 hour period in the late afternoon where it feels like the middle of a legit big winter storm so I can head out for a nice run in it. Doesn't even have to accumulate for me. Just remind me that legit snow and winter exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I'm just hoping for a 1-2 hour period in the late afternoon where it feels like the middle of a legit big winter storm so I can head out for a nice run in it. Doesn't even have to accumulate for me. Just remind me that legit snow and winter exists. Yea, it's intriguing being a compact dynamic ball of precip. All sim radars are showing heavies. Many variables irt accum snow that won't really be known until game time but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't looking forward to watching radar tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Euro looks solid (by this storms standards). Much juicier storm relative to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Yep an uptick in QPF from 0z to 12z on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 minute ago, Newman said: Yep an uptick in QPF from 0z to 12z on the Euro Almost doubled here in HoCo! Ill take it and run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Better across the board... the trend continues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 minute ago, LP08 said: So it’s gonna rain behind the system with temps below 32? LOL at these maps sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Hi Res Euro says game on. 3+ in the Shenandoah Valley. 2 inches in the DC burbs. Nice heavy burst of snow late morning to midday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Better across the board... the trend continues... Is it selfish to ask for a north jog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I wonder which is more likely. Might have to wait to see how the radar develops. My gut says precip from that direction tends to arrive a bit earlier than is forecast. We shall see I think that's true on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Starting to see a pretty tight cluster of solutions across all guidance. Euro/gfs are basically lock step now... Seems like a best case scenario is showing up under 48 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Is it selfish to ask for a north jog? considering BL temps... lol be careful what you wish for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Starting to see a pretty tight cluster of solutions across all guidance. Euro/gfs are basically lock step now... Seems like a best case scenario is showing up under 48 hours... Maybe this is the little event that starts the process of turning our luck around... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 considering BL temps... lol be careful what you wish for Consider this an open question too all because it’s something I’ve been wondering: are we (we being Beltway-East) worried about rain or a mix at all? I realize surface temps are iffy, but should it be all snow in theory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Consider this an open question too all because it’s something I’ve been wondering: are we (we being Beltway-East) worried about rain or a mix at all? I realize surface temps are iffy, but should it be all snow in theory? These soundings (THE EURO!) show the issues for of us closer in. Should be snow but accumulations will be tough. Edit: Not saying we won't accumulate. They Euro is a degree or two colder at the surface than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Consider this an open question too all because it’s something I’ve been wondering: are we (we being Beltway-East) worried about rain or a mix at all? I realize surface temps are iffy, but should it be all snow in theory? My question too, curious how much of the QPF ends up falling into 34-39 degree air.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Those morning temps look cold. We get a good cloud deck in here early and I’ll bet the temps bust ... they end up lower than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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