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Tuesday 1/7/20 Disco snow event

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Just now, mappy said:

35/25 at home, and a 2hr early dismissal for BCPS 

Every winter I'm so envious of you northern Baltimore County folks. It's always a good 5-10 degrees cooler up there then Towson lol

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1019 AM EST Tue Jan 7 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will pass south of the area this afternoon.
High pressure will build over the region Wednesday and hold
through the end of the week. Another area of low pressure
will pass northeast of the area late in the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Made a few minor tweaks to tighten the snowfall gradient along
the I-95 corridor, speed up the onset timing by an hour or two, as
well as nudge totals upward over higher terrain and northern
Maryland per upstream obs/latest guidance. Knocked a couple
degrees off the hourly temps as well. Otherwise, forecast
remains on track. Impressive burst of snow upstream over West
Virginia with visibility to 1/4 mile or less, and already
reports of accumulations of an inch in under 30 minutes. It`s
not the duration or total amounts expected, but the intensity
and timing (with the evening commute for the I-95 corridor) that
are expected to have a high impact.
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43/19 dim sun peaking thru

Ill be up in Clarksburg this afternoon.  Hoping for a nice thump

Mr Chill , I’ll be checking out you obs to c the conditions in my hood.

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1 minute ago, Steve25 said:

Every winter I'm so envious of you northern Baltimore County folks. It's always a good 5-10 degrees cooler up there then Towson lol

move north

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Just now, PhineasC said:

You are also probably simply more accurate and don’t slant stick your obs like some others do. 

Yeah, no snow obs in grass.

 

Here's a reason to still be positive.  This is the mesoanalysis from SPC at 10am.  Closed low in SW VA and NW NC with pressure falls in VA/NC and a convergence line south of Richmond.

pchg.gif.f75a97213fea2ebda1d532f2fddbd3a0.gif

 

Here is the 14z HRRR at noon.  Is there any world in which you can look at the current analysis and think that the low is going to be on the central WV/VA border?

 

HRRRMA_sfc_temp_003.png.f626ac0bdf729c1e7cfd3c5c900c573d.png

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Or know and accept your climo, and chase when required. :)

that would be too mature

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10 am update to my WWA:

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches
  are expected over portions of eastern West Virginia and western
  Maryland, and 1 to 3 inches over portions of northern Virginia.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Yeah, no snow obs in grass.

 

Here's a reason to still be positive.  This is the mesoanalysis from SPC at 10am.  Closed low in SW VA and NW NC with pressure falls in VA/NC and a convergence line south of Richmond.

Here is the 14z HRRR at noon.  Is there any world in which you can look at the current analysis and think that the low is going to be on the central WV/VA border?

 

Even better, here are the 10am obs from W/SW VA.  Forget the p-type and look at the wind direction.  The HRRR thinks that all of these locations should have E to SE winds right now.  It just isn't handling the low correctly.  So, it looks like the NAM is too cool ahead of the storm, but the HRRR isn't going to have the right track.  It is better to have the track than the temps right now.

451030512_Annotation2020-01-07102946.png.0de0410b7a38845f05e95e481b3961a2.png

 

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10 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

10 am update to my WWA:

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches
  are expected over portions of eastern West Virginia and western
  Maryland, and 1 to 3 inches over portions of northern Virginia.

 

 

Nice!

42 here in A-Town ballston

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Just got notice my kids are coming home early. (hoCo schools)

NWS calling for 2-4” for the colder NW zones. Thinking 2” here should be about accurate based on OBS to our Sw

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9 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

LOL the GFS has a middle finger of rain right through the DC area at 12 hours on the 12z run.  

There's just no way thats rain... 36F surface with a -3C 925mb? Maybe white rain, but no way thats plain rain.  IF (and a big IF) these models have the temp profiles right, I think many of them are missing the mark with p-type.

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7 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

LOL the GFS has a middle finger of rain right through the DC area at 12 hours on the 12z run.  

That UHI algorithm is a bitch.  I think it overdoes it a bit.  Has rain all the way up to the Montgomery/Frederick Line.   Sure.  

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Just now, stormtracker said:

That UHI algorithm is a bitch.  I think it overdoes it a bit.  Has rain all the way up to the Montgomery/Frederick Line.   Sure.  

It actually looks like a middle finger though lol

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3 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Just got notice my kids are coming home early. (hoCo schools)

NWS calling for 2-4” for the colder NW zones. Thinking 2” here should be about accurate based on OBS to our Sw

You JUST got notice??? The kids and staff have known for 90 minutes.

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