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10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’m pretty sure you stole my snow from the euro. That strip the clowns kept painting in the double digits verified just a bit east of here. You had some good low level salt aided snows coming from offshore last evening too. You could see the cells moving E to W on GYX below the midlevel echoes.

Euro was very persistent in its last 8 runs or so of hitting this area with 10-12", GFS and RGEM too, All and all, Modeling did a pretty good job, I would have to say that the NAM was probably the most inconsistent and pushed the warmer air pretty far inland for here to changeover and it did not happen.

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3 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Normally I don't lay things out like this, but last nights events over the course of about 60 minutes were too crazy not to document.
I left Manchester at about 5:00pm and the sleet was just starting out.  Not just sleet, but rumbles of thunder, and flashes of lightning.  The temp was about 35F.  By the time I got on to 84 east the sleet had picked up in intensity, as did the thunder and lightning.  By the time I got to the STRIP CLUB and Tolland exits sh*t was starting to get real.  The sleet was pouring down, visibility sucked, and the thunder was so loud that it shook the car.  

[My normal route to Brooklyn is route 6, which, after Bolton Notch (junctions of 384/44/6) only has moderate, graduate elevation changes... until I get to Chaplin and Brooklyn. But when I go to Melina's place in Dayville I take 84 East to route 74.  This route is much different.  As you can somewhat see with the topo map there are some decent hills and valleys.  Some of them have a pretty decent incline.  This is the roller coaster trip so to speak.]   

...Once I got to the rte 74 exit all hell broke loose.  There is an incline not to far after the ramp, and from there it was quite the treacherous ride.  The temp was 32 by then and snow was now mixing in.  Overall I passed 4 accidents, all of them ending with someone in a ditch, or hitting a pole or tree.  The sleet was so sudden that people did not have much time to react.  One accident had me arriving just after it happened.  I got out to help the guy but he was fine.  It has been a long time since I have driven in something like this, and with a 2 wheel drive I had to be real careful, and drive slow.  ...Except at the inclines.  I was pulling over to give the people enough time to get ahead of me so I could get enough speed and momentum to make it over the crests.  A few times I thought I was going to be a chump and have to back down the hill, but luckily that was never the case.  Sure, it was only about .75" of sleet , but that is all it takes for chaos to take over.  

sleet storm 3.jpg

I have driven both routes and those first 2 hills on 74 are fairly steep and would pretty much be white knuckle driving in sleet or snow! 

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Just now, dryslot said:

Euro was very persistent in its last 8 runs or so of hitting this area with 10-12", GFS and RGEM too, All and all, Modeling did a pretty good job, I would have to say that the NAM was probably the most inconsistent and pushed the warmer air pretty far inland for here to changeover and it did not happen.

Yeah I think the euro did well here too if you avoided the clowns verbatim. It seemed too snowy here given where it was putting the H7 0C. It actually had that S NH/N MA snow in the ptype maps while it was sleeting to the north. So I think if you used the raw output and knew how to manipulate the various vendor clown maps it did a good job.

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Just now, dendrite said:

Yeah I think the euro did well here too if you avoided the clowns verbatim. It seemed too snowy here given where it was putting the H7 0C. It actually had that S NH/N MA snow in the ptype maps while it was sleeting to the north. So I think if you used the raw output and knew how to manipulate the various vendor clown maps it did a good job.

I need to go take a core, It was spitting out between 1.2-1.4" qpf.

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8 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Normally I don't lay things out like this, but last nights events over the course of about 60 minutes were too crazy not to document.
I left Manchester at about 5:00pm and the sleet was just starting out.  Not just sleet, but rumbles of thunder, and flashes of lightning.  The temp was about 35F.  By the time I got on to 84 east the sleet had picked up in intensity, as did the thunder and lightning.  By the time I got to the STRIP CLUB and Tolland exits sh*t was starting to get real.  The sleet was pouring down, visibility sucked, and the thunder was so loud that it shook the car.  

[My normal route to Brooklyn is route 6, which, after Bolton Notch (junctions of 384/44/6) only has moderate, graduate elevation changes... until I get to Chaplin and Brooklyn. But when I go to Melina's place in Dayville I take 84 East to route 74.  This route is much different.  As you can somewhat see with the topo map there are some decent hills and valleys.  Some of them have a pretty decent incline.  This is the roller coaster trip so to speak.]   

...Once I got to the rte 74 exit all hell broke loose.  There is an incline not to far after the ramp, and from there it was quite the treacherous ride.  The temp was 32 by then and snow was now mixing in.  Overall I passed 4 accidents, all of them ending with someone in a ditch, or hitting a pole or tree.  The sleet was so sudden that people did not have much time to react.  One accident had me arriving just after it happened.  I got out to help the guy but he was fine.  It has been a long time since I have driven in something like this, and with a 2 wheel drive I had to be real careful, and drive slow.  ...Except at the inclines.  I was pulling over to give the people enough time to get ahead of me so I could get enough speed and momentum to make it over the crests.  A few times I thought I was going to be a chump and have to back down the hill, but luckily that was never the case.  Sure, it was only about .75" of sleet , but that is all it takes for chaos to take over.  

sleet storm 3.jpg

That map is awesome!!! :)

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16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’m pretty sure you stole my snow from the euro. That strip the clowns kept painting in the double digits verified just a bit east of here. You had some good low level salt aided snows coming from offshore last evening too. You could see the cells moving E to W on GYX below the midlevel echoes.

Snow is serious business. I'll steal from anyone.

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah I think the euro did well here too if you avoided the clowns verbatim. It seemed too snowy here given where it was putting the H7 0C. It actually had that S NH/N MA snow in the ptype maps while it was sleeting to the north. So I think if you used the raw output and knew how to manipulate the various vendor clown maps it did a good job.

I think this is a key point for clown mappers. One look at 700 mb told you there was going to be a lot of sleet in NH. The natural adjustment to the forecast would have been to shift the heavier snow accumulations NE accordingly.

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13 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s impressive. What were your totals previously before this one? I forget if you cracked 22” in the early month one.

Grabbed 9" the first half of the Dec 1-3 storm then woke up to about 16" the follow day. Got D-1" the 2 days following, 2.5" the following Friday. Then a random 3.5" the next Weds.

 

The ice came through in the end here. Encased and sagging pines trees this morning. 

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Just now, Cold Miser said:

...This guy last night.

20191231_091339.jpg

Ouch.

 

I had an earlier concern as to whether my plow guy would come out and plow with really no need.  By EOD yesterday, I was hoping he would be coming.  He just came thorugh......ovah-performah after a really lack-luster start.

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10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah I think the euro did well here too if you avoided the clowns verbatim. It seemed too snowy here given where it was putting the H7 0C. It actually had that S NH/N MA snow in the ptype maps while it was sleeting to the north. So I think if you used the raw output and knew how to manipulate the various vendor clown maps it did a good job.

I'm thinking a disclaimer when someone posts those graphics on whether or not they think that;s what will fall should be a given.

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6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Snow is serious business. I'll steal from anyone.

I think this is a key point for clown mappers. One look at 700 mb told you there was going to be a lot of sleet in NH. The natural adjustment to the forecast would have been to shift the heavier snow accumulations NE accordingly.

A lot of the mesoscale models really drove the warmth well into Maine which I found peculiar. I’m not sure why that’s the case or perhaps they didn’t give the ageostrophic component enough respect, but even a loft they looked just a little bit too warm once you get into Maine. I will say I remember thinking in my head that a small area may do well. You could see it was a long duration storm. 

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1.18" LE on the melted core and 9.0" of snow, That's a 7.6:1 ratio of dense snow, So there was some warm air aloft,  Its still snowing and probably when its all said and done could see another 1" or so that's a pretty good slug of moisture moving north on radar just to the east of PWM that may sneak in here

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18 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

I have driven both routes and those first 2 hills on 74 are fairly steep and would pretty much be white knuckle driving in sleet or snow! 

The magical Tolland hills. You were in the Bermuda Triangle. It’s a unique microclimate 

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Some winter pics from winter hill this morning....pretty solid icing overnight. There was more ice overnight than anything that happened the previous night.

 

Dec31_ORH1.jpg

Dec31_ORH2.jpg

Dec31_ORH3.jpg

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13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The magical Tolland hills. You were in the Bermuda Triangle. It’s a unique microclimate 

Not Tolland, the hills on 74 in Wilmington Just east of the RT 32 Intersection.

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1 hour ago, Whineminster said:

Lost power at 5 AM and white pines losing branches like crazy. Down here in FIT though not much ice at all and temps above freezing. 

Sounds like it was a bit worse up there with regards to the ice, hope you got power back. It seems common to see fitchburg-leominster route 2 area with lesser impacts since it is at the bottom of hill there at 300-350’ and probably got a bit more sleet vs zr.  

Damage was worse around here in the 08 storm as well, seems pretty routine for these events over the years. We are up to 32.7 now. 

 

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8 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Not Tolland, the hills on 74 in Wilmington Just east of the RT 32 Intersection.

He’s talking about exit 67-69 in Tolland as you climb into the hills on 84. The area is known as the Bermuda Triangle due to all the accidents and deaths . 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup.. echo that visage over here in Ayer.

Looks like we did end up with ~ .2" of accretion from this thing after all, and 2 .. maybe 3" of cement on the ground. Icing was having difficulty taking place prior to last evening.  We were either IP, or wet snow much of the day, then got interesting.  We had a couple of thunderstorm around supper time - of all things ... Nary a peep re thunder in any forecast efforts that I saw prior to the event. Nonetheless, flash-boom-ba, with very large sleet pellets - probably stuck together... We then settled back into moderate sleet and ZR, in a fog of pixie dust, with temperature sliding into the upper 20s... Worse part of the storm for us over here was definitely between 5pm and midnight last evening, with anything prior to quite forgettable.  It was tough getting around and just nasty out of doors last night.

The thunderstorms with this event really made it interesting, versus your typical mixed bag. This storm also did not behave as expected which made it fun to watch live. We had some icing /sleet starting yesterday morning, but were basically locked at 32.0 all day. Tough drive back from waltham yesterday around 11-12am yesterday, roads were a mess.

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29 minutes ago, dryslot said:

1.18" LE on the melted core and 9.0" of snow, That's a 7.6:1 ratio of dense snow, So there was some warm air aloft,  Its still snowing and probably when its all said and done could see another 1" or so that's a pretty good slug of moisture moving north on radar just to the east of PWM that may sneak in here

Same ratio as my 3.5" (at 7, probably another inch since.)  Last evening flakes were heavily rimed, or perhaps seemed that way because dry air wrecked any decent dendrites - gritty stuff.  Nicer flakes this morning, but still small and mostly light with a couple short periods of moderate.  Almost no wind - lower branches are loaded despite the dry powder consistency of the snow.

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1 minute ago, tamarack said:

Same ratio as my 3.5" (at 7, probably another inch since.)  Last evening flakes were heavily rimed, or perhaps seemed that way because dry air wrecked any decent dendrites - gritty stuff.  Nicer flakes this morning, but still small and mostly light with a couple short periods of moderate.  Almost no wind - lower branches are loaded despite the dry powder consistency of the snow.

Yeah my arbors are loaded too 

4BC15098-6D0A-4E8F-8DFA-F3769E0C8B81.jpeg

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Quite an over-performer around here, with around 13-14" in my corner of Scarborough. Driving up 95 this morning it flipped from light rain back to snow right around PWM. 

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9 minutes ago, PWMan said:

Quite an over-performer around here, with around 13-14" in my corner of Scarborough. Driving up 95 this morning it flipped from light rain back to snow right around PWM. 

 

Nice!  I have yet to take a measurement after we flipped back to SN at 7:30, but I was at 13" when it was raining at 5:30, so I should end up close to you.  I'm right on the Scarborough line in SoPo.

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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

 

I know that the models overplayed the dry air eating away the northern edge of the precip. That was forecast to basically push precip back into NH for the day yesterday. Never happened and stayed predominantly snow around here.

But also I want to look into why were models so warm initially only to flip to a very wintry system. Ensemble sensitivity is archived for at least a month, so I want to look into it from that perspective.

Got into an amusing exchange at 9:50 last night (when the temp was 27) with the head of the plow crew who told me that by 2300 temps would rise to 38 degrees. Not sure where that was coming from, but  I told him that wasn't going to happen. When we checked on with each other at midnight we were still sitting at 27. It is currently 33.

So also will be curious because (limited background here) this storm seemed to over perform for us. Not complaining at all but would be curious why it stayed so cold so long, if that is even the right way to phrase it.  

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14 minutes ago, SnowBrosForever said:

Got into an amusing exchange at 9:50 last night (when the temp was 27) with the head of the plow crew who told me that by 2300 temps would rise to 38 degrees. Not sure where that was coming from, but  I told him that wasn't going to happen. When we checked on with each other at midnight we were still sitting at 27. It is currently 33.

So also will be curious because (limited background here) this storm seemed to over perform for us. Not complaining at all but would be curious why it stayed so cold so long, if that is even the right way to phrase it.  

The cold is fairly easy to predict when you see a high building towards New Brunswick. That was a big change in guidance around the morning of the 26th. Instead of the high sliding off Newfoundland, it built southeast (and got stronger). Just a classic CAD location. The easiest call I could've made yesterday was that most of the places away from the immediate coast would not sniff 32.

The harder question is why the high trended stronger.

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