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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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22 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Unfortunately it's been like this for two years

More than 2 years here. It's been generally wetter than normal here since 2013. I saw mosquitoes the other evening. It has only been below 20 degrees once and that was in November. 

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1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

More than 2 years here. It's been generally wetter than normal here since 2013. I saw mosquitoes the other evening. It has only been below 20 degrees once and that was in November. 

Yeah, this pattern has been in control for awhile now. Very active STJ farther north bringing endless rain systems through the SE, basically serving as a semi-permanant SER and keeping all cold in the central US and northern Rockies parts of the CONUS. The same patterns are responsible for both the overabundance of rain and total lack of cold. The last two years in particular have been excruciatingly rainy; over 135 inches for me, and more than 200 inches for many mountain locations. This year seems to be starting the same way. The good news is, patterns can't last forever. Maybe we get a change soon, maybe not. But we're very unlikely to get much frozen with the current pattern. 

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12 hours ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

How many winter seasons in central NC have went without any measurable snow?

It’s been a while if ever with no measurable snow.  We always seem to get at least a trace. I understand that the atmosphere is changing but going off of history we will see something!  If one expects feet then they should move North and a little West !

https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/NC/Raleigh/extreme-annual-raleigh-snowfall.php

 

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1 hour ago, RT1980 said:

It’s been a while if ever with no measurable snow.  We always seem to get at least a trace. I understand that the atmosphere is changing but going off of history we will see something!  If one expects feet then they should move North and a little West !

https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/NC/Raleigh/extreme-annual-raleigh-snowfall.php

 

I don’t expect feet and don’t think most around here, outside of the mountains, do. But a nice 1-2” ground whitening, besides from sleet, shouldn’t be that much to expect. I havnt had a pure snow 1-2” event , in about 5+ years. Havnt even had a rogue sleet pellet this year, and next 2 weeks are looking snowless, but February is CLT s snowiest month, according to averages, so we will have to wait and see

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

I don’t expect feet and don’t think most around here, outside of the mountains, do. But a nice 1-2” ground whitening, besides from sleet, shouldn’t be that much to expect. I havnt had a pure snow 1-2” event , in about 5+ years. Havnt even had a rogue sleet pellet this year, and next 2 weeks are looking snowless, but February is CLT s snowiest month, according to averages, so we will have to wait and see

Man, 

 I get it.  I live near Raleigh but work close to Charlotte I have an apartment for work and am home when off.  The last few years have been comical to me almost to the point of tearing my hair out.  If I was home the the Charlotte are would get a few inches and if I was at work they would get it at home!  I just would like to see some snow either way.  What I was getting at is that based off of history at some point it’s going to happen this year.  If not then so be it! I also understand that for your location it’s more of a rarity.

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17 hours ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

How many winter seasons in central NC have went without any measurable snow?

Fresh in my mind is Greensboro receiving officially over a foot  (which was really 15"+ in many areas) in a snowstorm last season with Winston 14.5". Sure the rest of the winter was mostly quiet but it was the third snowiest day in Greensboro history. Lets not act like central NC hasn't gotten anything in a while.

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2 minutes ago, sarcean said:

Fresh in my mind is Greensboro receiving officially over a foot  (which was really 15"+ in many areas) in a snowstorm last season with Winston 14.5". Sure the rest of the winter was mostly quiet but it was the third snowiest day in Greensboro history. Lets not act like central NC hasn't gotten anything in a while.

So easy to overlook when it is just one event.  I said last year after it happened that it would take multiple 3-4" events for people to feel like it was a normal winter.  When you get the whole boatload all at once, especially in December, all anyone remembers is the weeks of nothing from Jan-Mar.

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Well at least it didn’t torch into the mid 70s in NC today the way it was forecast to at one point. So there’s that...

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1 hour ago, RT1980 said:

Man, 

 I get it.  I live near Raleigh but work close to Charlotte I have an apartment for work and am home when off.  The last few years have been comical to me almost to the point of tearing my hair out.  If I was home the the Charlotte are would get a few inches and if I was at work they would get it at home!  I just would like to see some snow either way.  What I was getting at is that based off of history at some point it’s going to happen this year.  If not then so be it! I also understand that for your location it’s more of a rarity.

Wyff 4 local NBC for the Western part of the Carolinas had a Winter special 2 weeks ago today.

They stated in that special that only one time since records begin at GSP has GSP not had measurable snow.

2012.

There's obviously an acute line in terms of winners & losers for snow lovers.

Those NW of 85 tend to see much more snow than those SE of 85.

That line extends from NE GA thru GSP to Charlotte & RDU.

Example Mack & myself.

Last December I got 6 inches by the NWS in Greer and from my own measurements.

Mack got less than an inch.

We probably live less than 20 or 30 miles from each other.

This seems to be the case for anyone in the aforementioned I85 area from NE Ga north to Raleigh.

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16 minutes ago, SteveRDU said:

Well at least it didn’t torch into the mid 70s in NC today the way it was forecast to at one point. So there’s that...

Yes it did. Hit 80 at my house and across much of southeastern NC and eastern SC.

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14 minutes ago, Billypg70 said:

Wyff 4 local NBC for the Western part of the Carolinas had a Winter special 2 weeks ago today.

They stated in that special that only one time since records begin at GSP has GSP not had measurable snow.

2012.

There's obviously an acute line in terms of winners & losers for snow lovers.

Those NW of 85 tend to see much more snow than those SE of 85.

That line extends from NE GA thru GSP to Charlotte & RDU.

Example Mack & myself.

Last December I got 6 inches by the NWS in Greer and from my own measurements.

Mack got less than an inch.

We probably live less than 20 or 30 miles from each other.

This seems to be the case for anyone in the aforementioned I85 area from NE Ga north to Raleigh.

The December 9th or so event of last year I was at work and the gradient for accumulation was tight.  I work in Midland and it was mostly a rain event with sleet and snow mixed in with no accumulation.  If you went 10 miles north there was an inch or two.  We were locked in and I saw it once it was mostly gone!

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3 hours ago, yotaman said:

Yes it did. Hit 80 at my house and across much of southeastern NC and eastern SC.

Mid 70's here as well

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1 hour ago, ragtop50 said:

Mid 70's here as well

Pattern looking bodacious. Transient cold shots should show back up by late January. What more could you ask for? It’s the new normal 

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8 hours ago, StormyClearweather said:

Here's the text from CPC to go along with those maps...

 

Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EST Fri Jan 03 2020

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Jan 18 2020-Fri Jan 31 2020

The global tropical convective pattern remains weak, with ENSO-neutral conditions prevailing, an incoherent MJO signal, and a decaying Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Therefore, little contribution from the tropics to the downstream midlatitude pattern during the Week 3-4 period is evident in the statistical guidance. Dynamical models almost uniformly favor renewed MJO activity, however, with the enhanced phase crossing the Maritime Continent over the next two weeks at a high amplitude on the RMM-based MJO index. The weakening IOD signal effecting a change in the base state may partly explain the forecasted high amplitude signal, but should a robust MJO event develop and propagate to the Pacific, it could help promote a substantial late winter pattern change over North America. These impacts would occur largely after the Week 3-4 period.

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Well this winter certainly isn't going as I expected.  Kudos to @Isotherm as his winter outlook ideas have performed well to date.  

As CPC notes in the previous post, we need to see the tropical convection move away from the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent and move into the Western & Central Pacific in order to give us a better shot at stirring up the Pacific side pattern.  Climo-wise, February gives us our best shot at seeing a -EPO/+PNA pattern during +ENSO winters.  Last winter (also +ENSO), we saw a -PNA pattern in February.  As @raindancewx has noted on the main board ENSO page, one thing that has been different this winter compared to last is the SOI.  The SOI was +9.3 in Dec 2018 and neutral to positive from Oct-Dec (atypical of +ENSO winters).  The SOI was -5.5 just this past Dec, and also negative in Oct & Nov (more typical of +ENSO winters).  That may be one indicator that we will see a more typical +ENSO response in February.

 

2 flies in the ointment would be: 1) Convection not moving out into the Pacific,  and instead, hanging around in the Eastern Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent.  That would likely lock in the warmth going foward; and 2) The continued +AO overwhelming any Pacific side shake up.

 

We can see here the CFS model showing the tropical convection (-OLR) moving away from the Indian Ocean and Maritime continent (40E to 140E) and consolidating in the W Pac & C Pac (150E to 150W) in the second half of January. 

6Qcxu1j.png

 

Accordingly, the CFS has been trending colder for February, with a deeper eastern trough in recent runs (trend on last 8 runs shown):

xpcezNM.gif

 

That's just one model though - who knows if it is right, but it would fit well with +ENSO climo.

 

Also of note is Paul Roundy's Experimental MJO Forecast Tool which shows the tropical convection kicking out into the W and C Pacific and a colder pattern in the eastern U.S. by early Feb.

qqL7fNB.png

 

For reference, see:

https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1213065361727393798

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjo.html

 

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Good to see, keeping my fingers crossed. It's funny though, even though I know February can be a geat Winter month, I've been so jaded by the past few that I have no confidence it will be anything other than Spring. May Februrary 2020 be the one to restore the confidence! 

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My only goal now is to try and somehow avoid January being the #1 record warm.  Right now things aren't looking good.

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1 hour ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Good to see, keeping my fingers crossed. It's funny though, even though I know February can be a geat Winter month, I've been so jaded by the past few that I have no confidence it will be anything other than Spring. May Februrary 2020 be the one to restore the confidence! 

Grit, good stuff as usual! It’s sad that every year it seems we are hunting long range pattern changes , instead of snow events. I recall some great looking patterns and east coast troughs being modeled in advance for January, only to not pan out and even go the exact opposite to torch and now the torch is gonna verify! Let’s get things hopefully reshuffled and start having some good storms to track/experience, by late January 

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Thank you, @griteater. Will be interesting to see the evolution of the rest of the winter.  Not over yet, but so far, things have/are going generally per my expectations.

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Euro has 4 inches of rain along the escarpment next 10 days.. Luckily the next 5 days are fairly dry before the deluge sets in..

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Call it unrealistic, but the late hours of the GFS throws VA/North-Central NC a bone. First time we’ve seen anything, even in the long range, in a couple of weeks. Fits the relative pattern the CFS has shown over the past few runs of the pattern changing at the tail end of January. Something to (hopefully) watch!

Edit: The GEFS average at the same time has most of NC and a good chunk of eastern SC with at least a bit of snow accumulation.

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