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Minor to moderate winter event M-Tue Dec 16-17, 2019

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7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The latest guidance suggests the potential for significant freezing rain not too far north and west of New York City. Based on the latest guidance, it is likely that an area stretching from West Milford, NJ across White Plains and to Danbury could pick up 0.10" to 0.25" freezing rain with the potential for more, especially in northwestern New Jersey.

Some of the local media outlets (radio forecasts I heard coming into work this morning) are downplaying the freezing rain risk (the specific mention concerned not more than a few hundredths of an inch). However, those outlets may be using dated guidance and/or relying on the much warmer GFS to reach a conclusion that understates risk of icing. The 3 km NAM, 12 km NAM, and RGEM are very aggressive, both with amounts and the southern extent of the freezing rain.

NWS just updated to expand the winter weather advisories a bit closer to the 5 boroughs. I suspect they may need a winter storm warning for the combo of snow, pellets and freezing rain accretion for the areas you mentioned.

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1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Just so we’re all clear, you said nyc is an all rain event right?

Mostly yes, they'll be some mixed precip at the onset but for NYC proper it'll mainly be a cold rain atm.

It's the areas just N&W that'll deal with icy conditions.

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I had to let some family members who live in Rockland county know that they may have a significant icing event tomorrow which they were unaware of. The NWS is only calling for about .10 inch of ZR. WTF?

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9 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

NWS just updated to expand the winter weather advisories a bit closer to the 5 boroughs. I suspect they may need a winter storm warning for the combo of snow, pellets and freezing rain accretion for the areas you mentioned.

Agree. The models have been increasing the QPF numbers the last few runs that might allow some areas to reach the WSW criteria. Currently 32/19.

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6 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I had to let some family members who live in Rockland county know that they may have a significant icing event tomorrow which they were unaware of. The NWS is only calling for about .10 inch of ZR. WTF?

Hey head, where in Rockland is your family? I’m in northern Rockland(stony point )

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2 minutes ago, Greg g said:

How much ice do you really think will accumulate up here ?

You are northern Rockland so you may see more snow/sleet than ZR but even by you .10-.25 is not unreasonable given what meso models are saying. It's southern parts of the county that could get more significant icing. 

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27 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Mostly yes, they'll be some mixed precip at the onset but for NYC proper it'll mainly be a cold rain atm.

It's the areas just N&W that'll deal with icy conditions.

almost impossible for ZR to accrete on the streets of NYC unless it's been bitter cold for days--ground is still generally warm this time of year as well.

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I suspect the typical inland areas will be updated to Winter Storm Warnings later tonight for potential of 2-4" of sleet and up to 0.50" of freezing rain.

The last time we had an ice storm warning here it was hoisted after the event was almost over the damage was already done.

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27 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I had to let some family members who live in Rockland county know that they may have a significant icing event tomorrow which they were unaware of. The NWS is only calling for about .10 inch of ZR. WTF?

While I think .10 might be low balling the icing threat the actual ice accretion can be a little nuanced. Just because an inch of freezing rain falls doesn’t necessarily mean it’ll all stick to cold surfaces. Though it will be pretty cold... so idk. 

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4 minutes ago, Nibor said:

While I think .10 might be low balling the icing threat the actual ice accretion can be a little nuanced. Just because an inch of freezing rain falls doesn’t necessarily mean it’ll all stick to cold surfaces. Though it will be pretty cold... so idk. 

The main roads aren't an issue because most of them will be pre-treated. The worst problems occur when the weather is unexpected which this will not be. Secondary roads will be a mess though. Any areas which have overhead power lines are at risk for loosing power and many tree branches might fall down. I remember a bad ice storm up in Hewitt from about ten years ago where nobody on that side of Greenwood Lake had power for over a week.

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Euro shifted a bit further than that with mid-level temps.  Shifts the sleet and freezing rain lines a good deal north on Tuesday.  Still a good front end thump for those who can avoid sleet.

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33 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

almost impossible for ZR to accrete on the streets of NYC unless it's been bitter cold for days--ground is still generally warm this time of year as well.

It’s sleet I’m worried about, sleet accumulates more efficiently then any other form of frozen precip. If we get a couple hours of sleet in the northern city this could end up an impactful event!

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Just now, Zelocita Weather said:

Where would you say the EURO puts the southern edge of the 2" plus snow line roughly?

I-287 give or take.   Has some decent ZR like the other models just a bit lighter and slightly further north

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4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I-287 give or take.   Has some decent ZR like the other models just a bit lighter and slightly further north

I would say somewhere near Morristown with an approx. north-south gradient.  But I would guess it ends up a bit further north.  However, the initial burst of precip. has been trending more impressive.  That could do some work late tonight.  And it could result in less linear snow - sleet - freezing - rain - rain boundaries and more banding dependent.

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9 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It’s sleet I’m worried about, sleet accumulates more efficiently then any other form of frozen precip. If we get a couple hours of sleet in the northern city this could end up an impactful event!

Agree, also with a couple of inches if ice pellets and some ZR on top of that, the forecast of cold temperatures the next 2 days following would leave 2" of frozen cement 

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38 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The main roads aren't an issue because most of them will be pre-treated. The worst problems occur when the weather is unexpected which this will not be. Secondary roads will be a mess though. Any areas which have overhead power lines are at risk for loosing power and many tree branches might fall down. I remember a bad ice storm up in Hewitt from about ten years ago where nobody on that side of Greenwood Lake had power for over a week.

Nothing has been treated here not even Rt6. It's also still below freezing.

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1 hour ago, purduewx80 said:

NWS just updated to expand the winter weather advisories a bit closer to the 5 boroughs. I suspect they may need a winter storm warning for the combo of snow, pellets and freezing rain accretion for the areas you mentioned.

Yes. It's possible. It will be interesting to see how things evolve this afternoon and evening.

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3 hours ago, Snow88 said:

The streets here are covered with sand lol

Since the November 15th debacle of last year , NYC has been salting and sanding the roads to death every time there’s is chance for a flurry . Bad for the cars bad for the roads .

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