purduewx80 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 2 hours ago, Nibor said: Took a trip to Sams Point in the Shawangunks today. Beautiful up there. It's cool to see the lower altitude haze in the distance. This was evident in the city today, too. Despite how dry it is, aerosols are trapped near the surface due to the strong inversion and stagnant high pressure in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 That impressive system in the Southeast is affecting weather around here too. Check out the gravity waves (aka transverse banding) over PA, leading to multiple reports of severe turbulence by large aircraft this evening. This has been happening on the northern fringes of the upper low the past couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 14 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: It's cool to see the lower altitude haze in the distance. This was evident in the city today, too. Despite how dry it is, aerosols are trapped near the surface due to the strong inversion and stagnant high pressure in place. Your scientific insight is so valuable in this sub forum. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 3 hours ago, Snow88 said: On other forums and some meteorologists. Just the other day these tellies were favorable. MJO now going into phase 6/7 and looping back to 6. This would be a disaster if you want winter weather. AO/NAO now forecast to rage positive. So no cold air or snow is in sight for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 Just now, SnoSki14 said: MJO now going into phase 6/7 and looping back to 6. This would be a disaster if you want winter weather. AO/NAO now forecast to rage positive. So no cold air or snow is in sight for the foreseeable future. Only the gefs does it. Mjo isnt the only thing that should be looked at. Stop making definite predictions. You do this alot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 24 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: It's cool to see the lower altitude haze in the distance. This was evident in the city today, too. Despite how dry it is, aerosols are trapped near the surface due to the strong inversion and stagnant high pressure in place. The Hudson this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 3 hours ago, CIK62 said: Reached 48* by me shortly before 4pm. The above maps better be right or we have little to look forward to. GFSx is +12! for the next 7 days and will wreck the BN traveling moving monthly average we have now. What are you even talking about? My forecast for the next 7 days is about 5.5 degrees above normal. For me to finish above normal for the month the last 9 days of the year have to +7 AN and it looks like the 30th-31st could be BN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: MJO now going into phase 6/7 and looping back to 6. This would be a disaster if you want winter weather. AO/NAO now forecast to rage positive. So no cold air or snow is in sight for the foreseeable future. Lets cancel winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 5 hours ago, Snow88 said: Only the gefs does it. Mjo isnt the only thing that should be looked at. Stop making definite predictions. You do this alot. The death vortex over Alaska is all I need to know that things are going to suck. The entire CONUS looks torched too. Uncertain when or if any of that cold building over Alaska comes south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 For those that didn't read Larry Cosgroves weekly newsletter he basically stated that between January 1st thru about the 23rd he likes the euro weeklies with a "washed out" cold look with snow potential being good for the Great Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes. He did say winter will eventually get here but the I-95 cities may have to wait longer which to me means we may not see any appreciable winter weather until the second half of January which is in line with what some others are thinking. Honestly it wouldn't surprise me if we don't see much of anything substantial until the last week of January. If that is the case lets hope good things come to those who wait. We'll see. Disclaimer: Not saying this is how things will play out but it is a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 4 hours ago, Rtd208 said: For those that didn't read Larry Cosgroves weekly newsletter he basically stated that between January 1st thru about the 23rd he likes the euro weeklies with a "washed out" cold look with snow potential being good for the Great Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes. He did say winter will eventually get here but the I-95 cities may have to wait longer which to me means we may not see any appreciable winter weather until the second half of January which is in line with what some others are thinking. Honestly it wouldn't surprise me if we don't see much of anything substantial until the last week of January. If that is the case lets hope good things come to those who wait. We'll see. Disclaimer: Not saying this is how things will play out but it is a possibility. Fits with the default pattern of the 2010s. It’s close the shades for a couple weeks at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 On 12/21/2019 at 12:02 PM, EasternLI said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 The next 8 days are averaging 44.5degs., or 10degs. AN. The low T is beating the normal high T three times. Month to date is -2.5[36.3]. Should be about +0.9[38.4] by the 31st. 39* here at 6am. 47* by Noon. 51* by 2pm. None of the major models have any snow whatsoever now for at least 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 Outside New York City, temperatures had fallen into the 30s with a number of locations reporting temperatures at or below freezing including Danbury (24°), Poughkeepsie (26°), and White Plains (32°). In Central Park, today was poised to be the first day with a low temperature at or above 40° since December 14 when the temperature bottomed out at 45°. Today will very likely see the first 50° or above reading since December 14 in New York City when the temperature hit 56°. The latest MOS guidance shows a high temperature of 52°. Further, since 1981, 92% of cases that saw Chicago record a high temperature of 52° or above (52° yesterday) saw the temperature reach or exceed 50° in New York City a day later in the December 20-30 timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 29° here this am.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 All the models now show the mild Pacific pattern continuing into at least the start of January. The fast Pacific Jet continues to be a dominant theme. This has been our new stuck weather pattern going back to last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: All the models now show the mild Pacific pattern continuing into at least the start of January. The fast Pacific Jet continues to be a dominant theme. This has been our new stuck weather pattern going back to last winter. Yes but the pattern has changed significantly with the PV now over Alaska. Combined with the existing PAC and our chances for any wintry weather are the bleakest we have seen all season next two weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 Yes, and I notice as I look at long range forecasts over last few days, the cold air keeps moving back a day with each new day. It is a dog chasing its tail scenario like last year Only certain statement: Next 10 days will be mild. Same as yesterday. And the day before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 this junk has happened before...2004-05 went to sleep the first two weeks in January before a complete change the second half...we can only hope that happens again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 Interesting watching the small up and down temp variations with subtle wind variations on one's pws... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 CPC called for a normal winter with above average precip. Since then the model turned bad. Wtf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 The forcing came right back to the Maritime Continent as the IOD returned to neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 A nice little inversion up here this morning. Attached are the obs from KMGJ, at approx 360', and KSWF at approx 460', they are 7 or so miles away from each other but the 100' difference in elevation tells the story this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 I was at 25f this morning at my house which sits in a valley while the nearest wunderground station was at 36f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 32 minutes ago, Hitman said: I was at 25f this morning at my house which sits in a valley while the nearest wunderground station was at 36f I didn't note my actual low at home this morning yet but I know that i was down in the mid 20's when I got up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 3 hours ago, bluewave said: The atmosphere keeps coming up with these Niña-like extended Pacific Jet patterns. The last official La Niña ended in March 2018. But at least 16-17 and 17-18 had their favorable KU event periods. I thought jet extensions are more common in Nino's and jet retractions are commonly observed in Nina's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 Novice checking in and I get that there is oceans of science involved in much of this but I will not buy into any of it until I see what actually happens. Most of you guys have forgotten more of this science than I will probably ever understand but with that said , The long range says this the long range says that or so and so says this or what about the the Pacific Jet / this looks just like last year yada yada or how about the PV -----all I know that regardless of who says what or which model shows anything that it could EASILY still snow in the North East for New Years. Now back to your discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 GFS looks pretty darn cold from 12/31 through end of the run. Lets see how long that look holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 57 and sunny here, picture perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 54.. Its quite hazy out, looking west the air looks espically horrible toward NJ. A brown haze over Hudson Yards and into Jersey, Im actually high enough above it to see it below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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