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December 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We no longer need Mets? Just dry ride euro/eps and save your fanny.

The Mets? Eh, they had a decent record in the NL East this year. I think they've earned the right to survive another season. Also, I always lube up for the Euro. Dry humping is reserved exclusively for the NOGAPS. 

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35 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You’re funny. I like how you sit back and watch the circus play out. A little popcorn, maybe a beer or two. Then, when everyone is emotionally exhausted and euro gives NNE 2” qpf at D2...you jump out of your chair and start your own privately held gathering.

Those are great gatherings.  Craft brews, homegrown and pony-o's as far as the eye can see.  You should stop in to one sometime.

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Alrighty. My biggest take from the overnight runs is the strong primary in the upper plains.  This floods our area with warmer air.  The low then gets strung out along the confluence and forms a secondary along the coast.  If the ULL is able to capture the secondary then we may be able to pull off a sizable snowstorm in ESNE.  Right now I'm not seeing that as a likely scenario.  I see a messy system unfolding with a week secondary low popping along the NJ coast.  I favor CNE for snow with mostly cold rains and some snow in SNE.  As Scooter alluded to, I feel with the weak secondary, low level cold may be tough to scour out but upper levels will be warm.

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Sfc is trending colder which isn't a surprise given the secondary track....the sfc secondary reflection actually gets going pretty early on relative to the mid-levels. So we'll def have to watch for a mess of IP/ZR for a time ifthe mid-level do not trend colder.

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13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Sfc is trending colder which isn't a surprise given the secondary track....the sfc secondary reflection actually gets going pretty early on relative to the mid-levels. So we'll def have to watch for a mess of IP/ZR for a time ifthe mid-level do not trend colder.

Yeah if there is anything probably as a common denominator, surface inland is chilly.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah if there is anything probably as a common denominator, surface inland is chilly.

Mid-levels may cool if we see that secondary development continue to be pretty early. I've seen that happen before where the sfc is the first to really go cold and then later on it turns colder through the rest of the column....but we're still pretty far out, so the synoptics can easily shift the wrong way. But I'd def hedge colder *IF* that secondary sfc reflection is continuing to start nuking out off ACY rather than ACK or south of BID....which is what models have been showing.

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