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July pattern(s) and discussion


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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I def noticed the water was colder this year than it typically is. It felt like upper 60’s. Typically in a sunnier spring it’s up to 73-75 now. Still is nice and refreshing. 

Current temp is 68° in Woods Hole.  Average July temp is 70°.  Where do you get mid-70s?

https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/natl_tmap.html

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The only good news about having cooler than average SST's is we don't have to have James alarm us that hurricanes will have excess fuel to thrive on as tropical systems ride into SNE late this summer. If the theme of cooler than average SST's continue into winter then we don't have to hear about how the SST's will yield stronger winter storms. 

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AMOC flipped...  no question.   It's been suggested by the multi centennial curve .. .nesting periodicities on the order of 30 to 40 decades between warm and cool oscillations, that we should see the AMOC flip to a tripolar north Atlantic and that's prevalent at this time/the current SST distribution is probably not a mere coincidence. 

Related to.. cold water is cutting back west N of the G-string ... N of the continental shelf out there... Nick mentioned something a couple weeks ago and it may be related, but the haline cycle could be impacting the fluid viscosity of the ocean due to huge exhaust flow rates off Greenland melt/fresh water.  A conveyor weakener..where even fractions of mass changes can and may be exacerbating the anomalies, too.   Either way, the -NAO is correlated ... which again, time and study to positively link it to that - and it's a hard science because the NAO can be negative when the -AMOC or +AMOC...  It's a matter of frequency - 

-------

Perhaps Jerry, ...so far, appears to be a pretty significant temperature bust. Oh ...it's not stopping governments or anything ha, but.. unless something changes, ALL models busted pretty badly with the ceilings ...which is a factor directly impacting temperatures.  We'll see how the afternoon evolves.  Thing is... the MOS didn't get it right either. If it was going to be this inundating, ... heh.  

 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Slow movement south to the clouds. NNE FTW today. 

yeah ...saw that too - it's why I'm not willing to "86" ( pun intended...)  the MOS numbers entirely. It's just that I saw a lot of upper 80s and am wondering at what point to pull the plug on that. 

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

The only good news about having cooler than average SST's is we don't have to have James alarm us that hurricanes will have excess fuel to thrive on as tropical systems ride into SNE late this summer. If the theme of cooler than average SST's continue into winter then we don't have to hear about how the SST's will yield stronger winter storms. 

you really think that's going to stop him?

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good call by Scott... sharp clearing from the N.  

wonder if we'll be in an out of that band this week... Seems the ridge doesn't really want to commit to a rim very far N of ORD-BOX latitude which in addition to all ... may also be a convective conveyance 

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This is a simply not a summer hemisphere ... ... This below is February in July - what''s funny about that comparison is that even in July...  "February" can't seem to happen without being too steeply saturated in gradient :wacko2: wow

 

gfs_namer_228_500_vort_ht.gif

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12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I would say there is some very large hail embedded in this cell around Milinocket/Lincoln...............

A76F08CC-23D0-426D-8A6D-68B9E0224448.png

Public reported quarter sized hail in latest SWS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Caribou ME
100 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

MEC009-019-021730-
/O.CON.KCAR.SV.W.0017.000000T0000Z-190702T1730Z/
Hancock ME-Penobscot ME-
100 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM EDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL HANCOCK AND SOUTHEASTERN PENOBSCOT COUNTIES...

At 1259 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Grand Falls,
or 12 miles southeast of Lincoln, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Public.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind
         damage to trees and power lines.

Locations impacted include...
Licoln Township, Grand Falls, Enfield, Burlington, Lowell, Great
Pond, Saponac and Greenfield.
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