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Typhoon Tip

July pattern(s) and discussion

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Kidding with the 'early autumn' jest, of course...

But, it it just seems the extended range modeling tenor, for much of the mid to end spring and now entering into summer times thus far, has been persistently collapsing the mids and extendeds into patterns that are not very well conformed to summer synoptics. 

Unsure why that is the case... Lord knows I have no shortage of hypothesis to explain why.

This new rolled out version of the delux GFS is ( by the way ...) imho  ... not a Good Forecast System.  It should be dubbed the N-GFS.  You can really see my personal frustration with this model ... illustrated via the comparison between its D6, ... against either the GGEM ( don't get me started on that model), the Euro, or both. 

The GFS ablates ...erodes... 'rasps' tops of ridge arcs down flat as a bias. 

image.png.4df4db1adf0ccdef5871ff327bb1da04.png

iIn its defense... at any point-forecast in time .. it could certainly go onto win.  But, this week's "possible" if marginal heat wave suffered in the GFS the whole way, and I feel pretty strongly that it is more likely so than less, related to it's heredity with longitude bias/stretching the flows in mid and extended ranges. It's always done this. 

The modelers ( to their supposed credit ...) probably don't go in and try to fix that specifically. That wouldn't end well  ... to do so would probably gum up the works.  The longer termed goal is to create a global forecast system that arrives to the right'est plausible picture, out in time, organically... Which is to say, just allow the physics to holistically perform.  If they start parameterizing this, and using blind correction factors that ... that's bad for a lot of philosophical reasons.

Anyway... I those imagaes above are not exactly showing an egregiously different appeal...but it's just enough to annoying.  I also wonder about later in the summer, when the season really does begin to wane.   

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Seems to be reflecting in the 12z GFSX MOS ... EWR/BDL/FIT are officiating wed-thur-fri...

'see what the Euro throws at us -

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15 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Good stuff Tip. Eps continues the trend of a week 2 ‘cool’ down. 

ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_11.png

On the fence.   We'll see if it has legs... 

I've seen that since April in that range - more or less what I was talkin' about.  But the look then goes on to a warm complexion, just falling shy of getting hot - and by that we mean fairly and objectionably > normal. 

It seems we're not slated to historic heat... but "perhaps" the models are seeing what reason is causing banal/uninspired summer warmth by over doing it on troughs in that range. 

But the summer's young, and there's certainly time to get a bigger heat plume going than we've seen.  The 12z GFS is now on board for low end heat wave this week to ring in the month... 

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10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Hot week on tap overall. Glad I have it off.

You work outside ...?

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20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You work outside ...?

Nah. I can just be home to enjoy it and take care of overheating chickens.

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According to the GSFX MOS.. it's projecting marginal heat wave prospects N-E of roughly EWR ... spanning multiple sites. What's interesting, albeit tedious, is that the synoptic complexion ( 00z ) was/is the warmest 'looking' from that particular model ... going back several cycles. Yet it's machine interpretation chooses that cycle to nick temps off. 

Otherwise, status quo.  Looks like very warm ... hot for some tastes, while quite plausibly failing to register a heat wave.  I was just looking at the 2-meter progs on the GFS and it comically puts up 90/89/91/95 ... seemingly on-purpose, for ASH.  I gotta figure at this time of year the 'correction vector' is pointed upwards; we can almost perfunctorily add a degree to all these.  Man... if it's not rasping ridges it's shirking derivatives... unbelievable.

We could be sitting on the surface of the f'n sun and this guidance will have 6,003/89/7210/6534

 

 

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Another great night of thunderstorms for the NW Lakes Region of NH.  They weakened as they moved SE of my area.  I storm chased last night.  Lots of lightning, heavy rain and I caught quite a bit of hail in Plymouth.  Great structure.  I'm not sure if you could call this a supercell or not but the storm to the right in the picture became very intense.  I chased it and got under a slowly rotating low base in Plymouth NH.  Hail was to the right of this picture.  This storm missed me but the followup storm gave me .54".   I have had more thunderstorms this season than all of last summer.

brian.jpg

base.jpg

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17 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Another great night of thunderstorms for the NW Lakes Region of NH.  They weakened as they moved SE of my area.  I storm chased last night.  Lots of lightning, heavy rain and I caught quite a bit of hail in Plymouth.  Great structure.  I'm not sure if you could call this a supercell or not but the storm to the right in the picture became very intense.  I chased it and got under a slowly rotating low base in Plymouth NH.  Hail was to the right of this picture.  This storm missed me but the followup storm gave me .54".   I have had more thunderstorms this season than all of last summer.

brian.jpg

base.jpg

Great captures Gene

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Heading to York beach from today thru Saturday. Looks to be an awesome weather week. Such a nice beach and town, just too bad the water is always too cold to go in.

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I was in Gilmanton last evening before sunset and there was very clear boundary to the north with very ominous clouds. Sometime between 9:30-10PM, very heavy rain moved into Meredith with some great lightning. Was stunned when I woke up around 6:15 this morning to mostly clear skies. The lake water temperature finally got into the comfortable range this week. 

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Headed out on the bike this morning got a mile down the road big flash thought "Halluie?" heard the roll thought "Aural halluies are always been voices commanding me what to do, that was lightnin' bucko" so I uied and headed home.  I am more likely to be hit by a car then struck by lightning but since its 2-0 cars I'm thinking lightning is looking to even things up.

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8 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Torch.

Heading to Falmouth early AM tomorrow. We HHH for the week ! Perfection 

Old Silver Beach?

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No relief in sight folks 

BTV honking for heat later this week... 

Remember they are talking about the Champlain Valley torch spots but even still, that's a hot forecast with the usual mountain towns reduction.  

&& Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/... as of 334 PM EDT Sunday...continued consistent signals in the models for above normal temperatures in the mid to upper 80s with the potential for a few 90 degree days mid to late week. The next real chance for precipitation looks to arrive on Friday as subtle shortwave energy and sufficient moisture approach the area. Definitely looking like a hot, muggy day Friday as dewpoints approach 70 degrees with temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90.

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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

BTV honking for heat later this week... 

Remember they are talking about the Champlain Valley torch spots but even still, that's a hot forecast with the usual mountain towns reduction.  

&& Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/... as of 334 PM EDT Sunday...continued consistent signals in the models for above normal temperatures in the mid to upper 80s with the potential for a few 90 degree days mid to late week. The next real chance for precipitation looks to arrive on Friday as subtle shortwave energy and sufficient moisture approach the area. Definitely looking like a hot, muggy day Friday as dewpoints approach 70 degrees with temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90.

It’s amazing how everything has flipped to non stop heat and warmth with SE ridging running rampant. 

SERRR?

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

BTV honking for heat later this week... 

Remember they are talking about the Champlain Valley torch spots but even still, that's a hot forecast with the usual mountain towns reduction.  

&& Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/... as of 334 PM EDT Sunday...continued consistent signals in the models for above normal temperatures in the mid to upper 80s with the potential for a few 90 degree days mid to late week. The next real chance for precipitation looks to arrive on Friday as subtle shortwave energy and sufficient moisture approach the area. Definitely looking like a hot, muggy day Friday as dewpoints approach 70 degrees with temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90.

Our forecast is 75-80 all week. Just about perfect. :)

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