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July 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave

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5 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

chamber of commerce weather coming up for at least a week..wow sunny days after sunny days with temps in the 80s getting into the low 90s perhaps around the weekend. Enjoy the heart of summer

need a break from the rain here after 9 inches in the last week or so!

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19 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

If these high DP heat waves are the new norm it's going to be extremely difficult to get that elusive 110 around here, even as the HI easily exceeds that mark.

We would probably need another extreme drought in our heat source region. This occurred in July 2011 when Newark made it to 108 with record drought in the Southern Plains.This year is the complete opposite with record soil moisture and rainfall continuing. So we get near all-time high dewpoints and heat indices instead of all-time maximum temperatures. But we could see an all-time record high minimum temperature under such a regime like the Boston just tied.

The minimum temperature at Boston Sunday was 83 degrees. Not only was this the warmest minimum temperature for July 21st...it also tied for the warmest min temperature for ANY date. The older date was August 2, 1975. That day was also in a notable time of heat and humidity.

 

AE126A0B-0EB9-4495-92C0-5A056EF4A188.gif.58955f4d05a49e111e5e6d6220a7865a.gif

 

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38 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

chamber of commerce weather coming up for at least a week..wow sunny days after sunny days with temps in the 80s getting into the low 90s perhaps around the weekend. Enjoy the heart of summer

66 degrees here-enjoying the break today!

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We would probably need another extreme drought in our heat source region. This occurred in July 2011 when Newark made it to 108 with record drought in the Southern Plains.This year is the complete opposite with record soil moisture and rainfall continuing. So we get near all-time high dewpoints and heat indices instead of all-time maximum temperatures. But we could see an all-time record high minimum temperature under such a regime like the Boston just tied.

The minimum temperature at Boston Sunday was 83 degrees. Not only was this the warmest minimum temperature for July 21st...it also tied for the warmest min temperature for ANY date. The older date was August 2, 1975. That day was also in a notable time of heat and humidity.

 

AE126A0B-0EB9-4495-92C0-5A056EF4A188.gif.58955f4d05a49e111e5e6d6220a7865a.gif

 

That was also Boston’s 2nd consecutive 80 degree minimum temperature. Boston has never had more than one such day in the same year.

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3 hours ago, purduewx80 said:

looks like a water spout just south of cooper's beach/southampton.

 

Radar indicated tornado with widespread damage as that cell crossed Cape Cod.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ericfisher

https://mobile.twitter.com/WeatherMatrix/status/1153702676707860481

https://mobile.twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1153701965580259328

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1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

It looks like after a couple of "cooler" days we start to warm back up into the upper 80's and lower 90's late week and thru the weekend continuing into next week.

Think we see the next  shot at 90 (+) will start Sun - tue.  Sat looks onshore-ish but still warming Fri - Sat to mid/upper 80s.  

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Extreme heat covered parts of Europe. High temperatures included: Angers, France: 105° (all-time record); Bordeaux, France: 106° (all-time record); Brive, France: 108° (all-time record); Chateaudun, France: 102° (monthly record); Chateauroux, France: 106° (all-time record); Cognac, France: 104° (all-time record); Dinard, France: 99° (monthly record); La Roche, France: 99° (monthly record); Le Havre, France: 99° (all-time record); Le Mans, France: 105° (tied all-time record); Limoges, France: 100° (all-time record); Nantes, France: 100° (monthly record); Poitiers, France: 104° (all-time record); Rennes, France: 104° (all-time record); and, Tours, France: 104° (tied all-time record).

Anchorage remains on course for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied near 100% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied 91% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. The most likely range is currently 63.8°-64.8°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around July 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.

The SOI was -1.54 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.525. A general tendency for blocking could persist through much of the remainder of July. Should blocking generally persist, a generally warm or perhaps very warm remainder of summer is likely.

Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. The latest EPS weekly guidance for August hints that above to possibly much above normal readings could develop in the Northeast, especially during the second half of the month.

On July 22, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.557 (RMM). The July 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.764. That is the 20th consecutive day during which the MJO has been in Phase 1. That surpasses the old record of 19 consecutive days during which the MJO was in Phase 1, which was established during the July 6-24, 2004 period.

The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 96%. Most likely range: 78.7°-80.2° (2.2° to 3.7° above normal).

 

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