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bluewave

July 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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9 minutes ago, Rjay said:

A Long Island dumbass 

 

 

Same thing here in Jersey City. I've watched numerous cars barrel right through flood waters. SMH thankfully the waters weren't as high, but still

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5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Definitely at least 2” here, kids beach buckets are filled with water lol

Were you able to hit 90? I ended up at 89.2 for the high. 

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3 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Were you able to hit 90? I ended up at 89.2 for the high. 

89.1 lol. On a west wind my area is warmer, south wind your area a bit warmer 

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5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

89.1 lol. On a west wind my area is warmer, south wind your area a bit warmer 

87 here 

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18 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I thought it was an actual flood stage stream/river at first glance. Well at least the poor fellow got 45 seconds out of his 15 minutes of fame, in the bucket. Judging from the comments, infamy would be a better word. As always ....

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Definitely a top 5 wind event for me in my lifetime.  

Here's video of the tree falling as it happened across my street we took.  Very little rain fell. No lightning or thunder either.  

 

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11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Alot of flooding here in Brooklyn 

Anyone got an Arc? Those videos on Twitter are surreal! 

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Strong thunderstorms brought heavy rain to the region late this afternoon and evening. A general 1.50"-2.50" has fallen. Select amounts through 11 pm include: Allentown: 2.42" (old record: 1.54", 1938); Bridgeport: 2.28" (old record: 1.08", 1985); New York City-JFK: 1.61" (old record: 1.16", 2008); Newark: 1.73" (old record: 1.36", 1943); and, Scranton: 1,88" (old record: 1.58", 1994). Allentown has now surpassed 40.00" precipitation for the year.

Additional showers and thundershowers are likely overnight and tomorrow. Parts of the region could experience the risk of some additional flooding.

Another bout of extreme heat is now unfolding in western Europe. Numerous record high temperatures fell in Norway. Additional records were recorded in France. The potential for July record high temperatures in parts of Spain, France, and Germany exists, especially during the first half of next week.

Anchorage remains on course for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied >99% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied 88% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. The most likely range is currently 63.7°-64.9°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around July 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.

The SOI was +5.54 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.189. A general tendency for blocking could persist through much of the remainder of July. Should blocking generally persist, a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer is likely.

Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. The latest EPS weekly guidance for August hints that above to possibly much above normal readings could develop in the Northeast, especially during the second half of the month.

On July 21, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.763 (RMM). The July 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.527. That is the 19th consecutive day during which the MJO has been in Phase 1. The last time the MJO was in Phase 1 for at least 19 consecutive days was July 6-24, 2004 (19 consecutive days).

The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 93%. Most likely range: 78.5°-80.2° (2.0° to 3.7° above normal).

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An interesting note on our weather pattern is when we get rain, we tend to get a lot of it in a very short period of time. I cannot remember the last time we had so many flash flood warnings in such a short period of time. I expect this to continue.

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Next 8 days averaging 78degs., or 1.5degs AN.

Month to date is  +3.7[80.1].       Should be +3.1[79.5] by the 31st.

SUMMER TO DATE [52 days] is +1.68.   Top Ten territory starts at +1.7.  Top Dog would be >+3.4.  Average summer is 74.4.

71.5* here at 6am.   68.5* by 10am!    70.5 at 11am.

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Raining at a decent clip here currently.

Picked up 0.40" of rain so far today.

Storm total so far 2.25"

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1 minute ago, Rjay said:

More flood warnings

Heavy downpours  here in SW Suffolk the last 30 minutes. Areas near JFK have picked up nearly an additional 1”in the last hour.

3F4EFA49-2303-431B-BB4A-E85B9570B2A0.thumb.png.c495d611d12def7c805a9621000667b4.png

 

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18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Heavy downpours  here in SW Suffolk the last 30 minutes. Areas near JFK have picked up nearly an additional 1”in the last hour.

3F4EFA49-2303-431B-BB4A-E85B9570B2A0.thumb.png.c495d611d12def7c805a9621000667b4.png

 

An additional 1.13" in KJFK in the past 37 minutes. Up to 3.46".

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45 minutes ago, Morris said:

2.08" in NYC 2.34" in EWR. 2.33" in JFK. 1.61" in LGA. 1.87" in HPN. 3.38" in TEB. 

JFK up to 3.56" after this most recent deluge. It's been fun to see two surface lows pass through the area in ~12 hours.

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17 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Pouring. Good for the garden. We needed this rain from the last few days. 

It's amazing how quick things dried out with the heat....

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