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bluewave

July 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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Getting crushed here today. Closing in on 1" of rain and still pouring / frequent lightning / thunder.

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Which model has a DP of 80* for NYC?      The Skew-T's are maxing out at 76*         A low above 80* is more likely according to the models, isn't it?---on perhaps two days!

Got to near 88* here (started in the mid-70's}, with that hazy sun, after 2pm.      You needed to look at about 4 bays  to see a total of 100 people however, on the wet sand.

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2 hours ago, psv88 said:

Anyone who believed the 86 degree dewpoints hasnt been at this long. 

I think we see an 86 dew point at some point within the next decade. 

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SST’s warming quickly now with 80 degrees just east of Barnegat, NJ.

 

STATION/POSITION TIME  SKY/WX   TEMP    WIND        PRES    VSBY  WAVE
                                AIR SEA DIR/SP/G                  HT/PER
                 (UTC)          (F)     (DEG/KT/KT) (MB)    (MI)  (FT/S)
NY Harb Entrance 2050            78 78  110/  6/  8 1010.6          2/ 7
20 S Fire Island 2050            78 76  180/  4/  6 1011.2          3/ 6
Great South Bay  2015            78 83  100/  8/ 10   N/A
23 SSW Montauk P 2050            72 74   50/ 14/ 16 1012.1
15 E Barnegat Li 2030               80                N/A           4/ 7
Hudson Canyon    2050            80 78  210/ 10/ 14 1011.9          4/ 7

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

SST’s warming quickly now with 80 degrees just east of Barnegat, NJ.

was just looking at these, too. check out great south bay...

1823005937_ScreenShot2019-07-18at6_07_30PM.thumb.png.320780167dcd6e7662c4e136d9c0f962.png

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3 hours ago, psv88 said:

Today won’t be BN. The lows will probably skew it AN. It’s in the 80s as well now

City/LI/North in the 70s anytime I checked today.

Still in the 70s.

73F Here now. clouds.

 

 

 

 

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53 minutes ago, Rjay said:

FFW here

Not a drop here 

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7/18:

ACY: 93
PHL: 89
TTN: 87
New Bnswck: 87
JFK: 86
BLM: 86
ISP: 84
EWR: 84
NYC: 79
TEB: 79
LGA: 78

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49 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

7/19:

ACY: 93
PHL: 89
TTN: 87
New Bnswck: 87
JFK: 86
BLM: 86
ISP: 84
EWR: 84
NYC: 79
TEB: 79
LGA: 78

Wow I didnt realize how warm it got at most locations. JFK was 86? The sun came out in Queens apparently. 

It's actually feel kinda chilly outside 70 dew 69 with a little gusty east wind

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Parts of the region received more than 2.00" rain over the past two days. Through 9 pm, Bridgeport's rainfall for today was 2.74". That broke the daily record of 2.21" precipitation, which was set in 1965. Bridgeport's 2-day total precipitation reached 3.60". New York City had picked up 2.33". The implied probability that New York City will receive 50.00" or more precipitation this year is currently 74%.

A period of intense heat is now imminent for the East. The Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions could see one or two days with high temperatures of 95° or above with some places perhaps reaching 100°. High humidity will lead to excessive real feel temperatures and dew points above 75°.

Meanwhile, following this weekend, another bout of extreme heat will likely develop over western Europe. The potential for July record high temperatures in parts of Spain, France, and Germany exists, especially during the first half of next week.

Anchorage remains on course for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied 96% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied 72% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. The most likely range is currently 63.0°-65.1°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around July 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.

The SOI was -12.31 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.006. Blocking could largely persist through much of the remainder of July.

Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Already, even as the July 1-10 period saw a preliminary AO average of -1.108, readings were above and much above normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Should blocking generally persist, a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer is likely.

Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. The latest EPS weekly guidance for August hints that above to possibly much above normal readings could develop in the Northeast, especially during the second half of the month.

On July 17, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.004 (RMM). The July 16-adjusted amplitude was 0.812. That is the 15th consecutive day during which the MJO has been in Phase 1. The last time the MJO was in Phase 1 for at least 15 consecutive days was June 11-25, 2017 (15 consecutive days).

The second half of July will very likely see a continuation of the generally much warmer than normal readings in much of the Middle Atlantic region. Since 1974 when MJO data was first recorded, there have been 6 cases (1988, 1996, 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2013) when the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 4 or more days during the July 1-10 period. The average temperature for those cases in New York City was 78.2° (1.7° above normal). The latest guidance suggests a mean temperature near 79.0°. In 4/6 (67%) cases, there was at least one heat wave during the July 16-31 period and 4/6 (67%) those cases had a peak temperature of 95° or above during that period.

The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 82%.

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1 hour ago, dWave said:

Wow I didnt realize how warm it got at most locations. JFK was 86? The sun came out in Queens apparently. 

It's actually feel kinda chilly outside 70 dew 69 with a little gusty east wind

Yeah I was just out and its tolerable out. Won't be saying that again for a while 

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