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Rtd208

May 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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16 minutes ago, psv88 said:

This pattern is awful. Make it stop 

close the shades for about a week, it's not going anywhere. (although looks like thursday could surprise)

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51 minutes ago, psv88 said:

This pattern is awful. Make it stop 

We just had a top 10 warmest month in April and the rains haven't been that bad. It was near normal for most of NJ. 

Sounds like a very warm, average precip spring to me. 

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20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We just had a top 10 warmest month in April and the rains haven't been that bad. It was near normal for most of NJ. 

Sounds like a very warm, average precip spring to me. 

I believe it was 19 days we had rain.  Cloudy almost all the time except on random week days.  Warm weather was almost always accompanied by rain, at least here in CT.  Now it’s May 1st and I’m debating turning on the heat. Can’t say I was a fan of April.

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We're getting screwed out of mud reduction season this year :yikes: Usually as the trees leaf out and the undergrowth comes up the surface soil moisture drops and the forest (and my yard) become more accessible but the frequent rain and lack of bright sunny days after a wet winter have squashed that opportunity. The mosquitoes are also worse than last year at this same time because of that and all of the standing water.

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5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

We just had a top 10 warmest month in April and the rains haven't been that bad. It was near normal for most of NJ. 

Sounds like a very warm, average precip spring to me. 

We have set records for the most days of rain in any month ever Almost no sunny days. Thats horrendous. Its like saying a below normal January wasnt bad even though it was cold and dry...

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Very wet pattern continuing on the 12z Euro. 

 

2D8D6DA5-ACA3-4432-BF0B-F3B546DA8F26.thumb.png.93846a56fb2e24188f1126a32f9623b1.png

Yeah the GFS has been hitting the rainfall pretty hard for us as well. Looks like a very wet period coming up from tomorrow into Sunday and beyond for that matter.

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5 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Yeah the GFS has been hitting the rainfall pretty hard for us as well. Looks like a very wet period coming up from tomorrow into Sunday and beyond for that matter.

The warm fronts/backdoors go back and forth for the whole Op Euro 10 day run. So we get plenty of rainfall opportunities as a parade of storms ride along the frontal boundary through our area. Quite a duel between the the very strong Greenland block and lingering WAR pattern.

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The warm fronts/backdoors go back and forth for the whole Op Euro 10 day run. So we get plenty of rainfall opportunities as a parade of storms ride along the frontal boundary through our area. Quite a duel between the the very strong Greenland block and lingering WAR pattern.

Yeah Mt.Holly had a really good discussion this morning outlining all of the possibilities and uncertainties temp and precipitation wise especially for late week and the weekend.

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5 hours ago, psv88 said:

We have set records for the most days of rain in any month ever Almost no sunny days. Thats horrendous. Its like saying a below normal January wasnt bad even though it was cold and dry...

I agree.  This is unbelievable.  48° and damp on May 1st.  We've had so many days with rain and clouds that when we get a nice day it's like a prize.

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But Accuweather says precipitation will be BN this month, with temperatures just holding AN.     Even has risk of drought upstate by the late summer.

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A warm front will push slowly northward tonight, bringing some drizzle, fog, and even showers to the region. In its wake, tomorrow will be variably cloudy with a risk of showers or even a thundershower. Readings will be much warmer than they were today. Some of the guidance suggests that temperatures in the mid-70s could extend as far north as New York City. The 80° isotherm could approach or reach Newark.

Farther south, temperatures could rise into the middle 80s in Washington, Baltimore, and even Philadelphia. Richmond could approach or reach 90°.

A strong backdoor cold front will then erase the warmth in the northern Middle Atlantic region, including Newark and New York City. Much above normal readings will persist in the greater Washington, DC area.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.93°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4.

The continuation of El Niño conditions increases prospects for warm anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas.

During the 1981-2018 period, monthly mean temperature differences between cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.50°C or above and climatology were as follows:

Boston: 59.0° vs. 58.5° for climatology
New York City: 63.9° vs. 63.1° for climatology
Philadelphia: 65.2° vs. 64.3° for climatology
Washington, DC: 67.5° vs. 66.6° for climatology

The SOI was +9.06 today.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.096.

On April 30, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.829 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat higher than the April 29-adjusted figure of 1.787.

Since 1974, there were four cases when the MJO reached an amplitude of 1.750 or above during Phase 2 during the April 20-30 period. The mean May 1-10 temperature was 58.8° vs. the 1981-2018 average of 60.2°. 75% of those cases were cooler than the 1981-2018 average. However, during May cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.50°C or above for the month, the May 1-10 temperature averaged 60.8°. Therefore, it is likely that the first 10 days of May will probably wind up with a mean temperature of 59.2°-61.2°. The latest guidance suggests a mean temperature around 59.4°.

Overall, May looks to be warmer than normal and wetter than normal.

Finally, from late yesterday into today, Detroit picked up 3.27" rain. That was Detroit's highest two-day precipitation total since September 28-29, 2016 when 3.34" rain fell.

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1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

But Accuweather says precipitation will be BN this month, with temperatures just holding AN.     Even has risk of drought upstate by the late summer.

They have to keep their advertisers happy ;)

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It may come down to the MJO. If we get the phase 8 push like the Euro has, then we may have to wait until late May or June for our first 90 of the season. 

9442BEAB-6396-47F4-ACFC-7F49BD16ADB4.gif.90dd9f8f8bbf54f426b3372fe551a394.gif

90?  I would gladly take 80 and sunny.  This has been a rough stretch of weather.  Many days in 50’s and rain.  Can’t remember the last time we had a few nice warm days in a row

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28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It may come down to the MJO. If we get the phase 8 push like the Euro has, then we may have to wait until late May or June for our first 90 of the season. 

9442BEAB-6396-47F4-ACFC-7F49BD16ADB4.gif.90dd9f8f8bbf54f426b3372fe551a394.gif

I honestly don't see an excessive heat summer. I am sure we will have some 90+ days but I think its more likely we will see alot of mid to upper 80's temps with the big story being the humidity and high dewpoints along with storminess.

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My highest temp so far is only 73. :thumbsdown:

At this point I don’t care what the temp is, I just want some sunshine.

13th consecutive day with precipitation. :facepalm:

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1 hour ago, 495weatherguy said:

90?  I would gladly take 80 and sunny.  This has been a rough stretch of weather.  Many days in 50’s and rain.  Can’t remember the last time we had a few nice warm days in a row

It hasn't been rough at all. Typical spring weather so far, warm too. We've seen far worse past few years.

Were folks expecting 90+ by May because that's not how this works.

Seeing ridging signals by next week on models so we'll see 80s very soon. Looks like -NAO breaks down. 

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11 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Just cranked the heat up. On May 1st=no bueno. 

My building had heat last night.

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7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It hasn't been rough at all. Typical spring weather so far, warm too. We've seen far worse past few years.

Were folks expecting 90+ by May because that's not how this works.

Seeing ridging signals by next week on models so we'll see 80s very soon. Looks like -NAO breaks down. 

Numbers strongly disagree. Record days of rain. Sorry, you’re wrong. 

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3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It hasn't been rough at all. Typical spring weather so far, warm too. We've seen far worse past few years.

Were folks expecting 90+ by May because that's not how this works. 

Yeah I've been thinking we've havent had it so bad up until this current stretch.  There was a decent run of normal to above normal temps in mid April too. If you're on the immediate coast you miss out but that's always the case this time of yr.  I was almost naive enough to think we could get through Spring without an extended depressing dreary stretch of weather, but its inevitable in these parts. Fact is Spring in NY generally sucks, and it's usually much better just 70 miles or so SW. My non expert opinion is It's just not a good spot on the EC for reliably pleasant weather till later on.

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30 minutes ago, Cfa said:

My highest temp so far is only 73. 

At this point I don’t care what the temp is, I just want some sunshine.

13th consecutive day with precipitation. 

ISP extended its new all-time measurable rain streak to a remarkable 12 days. The 2010’s continue to produce one new extreme after another. 

Number of Consecutive Days Precipitation >= .01 
for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 1963-09-05 to 2019-05-01
1 12 2019-05-01
2 9 1969-11-10
3 8 2003-01-06
- 8 2000-05-25
- 8 1998-05-11
- 8 1986-02-21
- 8 1978-08-07
4 7 2018-09-12
- 7 2014-12-11
- 7 2009-05-07
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24 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

My building had heat last night.

my building has had heat for days i wish the landlord would turn it off feels like summer 24 hours a day lol...

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51 minutes ago, bluewave said:

ISP extended its new all-time measurable rain streak to a remarkable 12 days. The 2010’s continue to produce one new extreme after another. 

Number of Consecutive Days Precipitation >= .01 
for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 1963-09-05 to 2019-05-01
1 12 2019-05-01
2 9 1969-11-10
3 8 2003-01-06
- 8 2000-05-25
- 8 1998-05-11
- 8 1986-02-21
- 8 1978-08-07
4 7 2018-09-12
- 7 2014-12-11
- 7 2009-05-07

The sun just made an appearance in Bay Ridge. Long enough to cast a shadow. We should let Forky know. As always ....

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