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Rtd208

May 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Maybe a pretty sunset tonight with all the smoke from the Canadian wildfires.

That explains the filtered sun this afternoon.  It was clear sky this morning but this afternoon it looked like a thin cirrus layer & I did a double take since the forecast was for clear skies.

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23 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

That explains the filtered sun this afternoon.  It was clear sky this morning but this afternoon it looked like a thin cirrus layer & I did a double take since the forecast was for clear skies.

Looks like the prevailing winds may bring even thicker smoke from the west this evening. 

https://mobile.twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1134435023287926785

https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/wildfires-put-slave-lake-on-evacuation-alert-blanket-edmonton-in-smoke

 

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18z Nam continues to suggest the threat of severe thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon. Specifically southeast Pennsylvania into Southern NJ. Instability looks to be decent however we don't start clearing out until the early afternoon. Will be interested in seeing the next few model runs. 

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New York City finished May with a mean temperature of 62.2°, which was 0.2° below normal. Rainfall was 6.82", which was 2.63" above normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around May 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through mid-June in Region 3.4. However, some fluctuation to warm neutral conditions is possible for at least some time. Beyond mid-June, the probability of generally warm neutral conditions could increase.

The recent big increase in the ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomaly may suggest a somewhat cooler than normal to near normal first half of June.

The SOI was -18.37 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.981.

On May 30, the MJO moved into Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.673 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat higher than the May 29-adjusted figure of 2.539.

On account of a historic late May heat wave that set new monthly record high temperatures in numerous locations in the Southeast, a number of cities recorded their warmest May on record. Cities setting record high average temperatures for May included:

Atlanta: 76.4° (old record: 74.8°, 1996 and 2018)
Charleston, SC: 78.2° (old record: 77.1°, 1953)
Elizabeth City: 74.6° (old record: 74.0°, 1944)
Fayetteville: 76.7° (old record: 75.8°, 2018)
Gainesville: 80.7° (old record: 80.1°, 1899)
Norfolk: 73.7° (old record: 73.6°, 1880 and 2018)
Savannah: 79.2° (old record: 78.4°, 1953)
Wilmington, NC: 76.4° (old record: 75.9°, 1953)

Numerous cities in the Southeast also saw an exceptional number days with 100° or above high temperatures in May:

Augusta: 2019: 5 days; 1874-2018: 2 days
Charleston, SC: 2019: 4 days; 1938-2018: 0 days
Fayetteville: 2019: 4 days; 1910-2018: 6 days
Florence: 2019: 5 days; 1948-2018: 6 days
Macon: 2019: 2 days; 1892-2018: 0 days
Savannah: 2019: 4 days; 1874-2018: 5 days
Wilmington, NC: 2019: 2 days; 1874-2018: 0 days

Select cities tied or broke their May record high temperature:

Augusta: 101°, May 26, 28-29-New Record
Charleston, SC: 101°, May 28-29-New Record
Columbia: 101°, May 28-Tied May Record
Fayetteville: 102°, May 30-Tied May Record
Macon: 100°, May 26, 28-New Record
Myrtle Beach: 99°, May 29-New Record
Savannah: 102°, May 26-New Record
Wilmington, NC: 101°, May 29-New Record

Such warmth has typically been followed by a warmer than normal June in the Southeast from South Carolina southward, especially across parts of Georgia and Florida.

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First  time since 2010 that LGA pulled off a slightly cooler than normal May monthly temperature departure. This puts LGA at 9 out of the last 10 Mays finishing with a positive temperature departure. NYC and EWR aren’t far behind at 8 out of the last 10 coming in warm.

May

..............EWR...NYC...LGA

2019......+0.8.....-0.2....-0.5

2018......+4.2....+4.5...+4.9

2017......-1.6.....-1.3....+0.7

2016......-0.1....+0.4....+1.1

2015.....+5.5.....+6.1....+4.5

2014.....+1.4.....+1.6....+1.0

2013....+0.6......+0.4.....+1.0

2012....+3.7......+2.7.....+3.3

2011....+2.9......+2.1......+1.0

2010....+3.5.....+2.9......+3.7

Brian Brettschneider made a great map showing these warm season temperature departure trends.

Warm season

https://mobile.twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1126293596909367301

Annual

https://mobile.twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1126228312353722368

Cool season

https://mobile.twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1126296962410508289

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On 5/31/2019 at 4:11 PM, bluewave said:

whats with the Canadian wildfires happening every year now?  I thought that was a rare thing lol

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On 5/31/2019 at 6:40 PM, bluewave said:

We had a dry month compared to what’s going on in Kansas.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Ginger_Zee/status/1134587165336383494

Up to 30” of rain in May for parts of Kansas — some places 4 times their average monthly rainfall.

the entire middle of the country is underwater and farmers cant plant this year, billions of dollars in losses.

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On 6/3/2019 at 5:34 PM, LibertyBell said:

the entire middle of the country is underwater and farmers cant plant this year, billions of dollars in losses.

Yeah but since they're not selling much to the other side of the Pacific compared to the previous 20 years it's not going to hurt as much as it would have just two years ago. In fact there may be fewer mid and small size farms losing money on unsellable crops that sit and rot in a silo. They may not make as much as they need to but at least they won't lose as much as they could have had they gone to a full planting this early season.

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On 6/6/2019 at 1:40 PM, gravitylover said:

Yeah but since they're not selling much to the other side of the Pacific compared to the previous 20 years it's not going to hurt as much as it would have just two years ago. In fact there may be fewer mid and small size farms losing money on unsellable crops that sit and rot in a silo. They may not make as much as they need to but at least they won't lose as much as they could have had they gone to a full planting this early season.

Looks like many are selling their farms and their cattle :(

Another big problem emerging is that toxic chemicals from fertilizers and pesticides is flowing down the Mississippi and enlarging the dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico to where it's now the size of the state of New Hampshire, furthering the rate of mass extinction that humanity has been causing.

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