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PD Weekend 2019 Storm Threats


WxUSAF
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Just now, WesternFringe said:

I love your objective analysis, it is one of the reasons this board is awesome.  My point remains why should we be encouraged by the the 10+ day good looking patterns while immediately discouraged by the same 10+ day bad looking patterns.   Neither has proven to be true with regard to ground truth snow this winter.

I was 100% goofing around because some were having an emotional stress reaction to every run!  

That said the pattern is not heading the right way. It could flip around yes. But hard to feel great about the trends right now. 

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I was 100% goofing around because some were having an emotional stress reaction to every run!  

That said the pattern is not heading the right way. It could flip around yes. But hard to feel great about the trends right now. 

I don't feel great about trends right now either.  But that's when mother nature (chaos theory) throws a curve ball and we get one more nice threat or two that she and the patterns don't account for.  Half full kind of guy, I guess.

eta: 17.5" this year/ 23.5" climo

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6 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

Sooooo you are basically saying it’s all but over :lol:

Well, no., maybe...haha...it's just been frustrating for sure especially when you forecast one thing and something else happens. Models really can't handle this pattern. But we've seen last minute shifts before and that can still happen. Not giving up yet,

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dont mean to be negative so i will try to put a positive spin.... but we needed a big bomb cutter for the Tuesday/Wed storm. Instead we got a saturday surprise snowstorm...which also fell apart....and also ruined sundays chances. So basically we gained nothing from losing the bomb cutter except we lost everything

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Just now, Ji said:

dont mean to be negative so i will try to put a positive spin.... but we needed a big bomb cutter for the Tuesday/Wed storm. Instead we got a saturday surprise snowstorm...which also fell apart....and also ruined sundays chances. So basically we gained nothing from losing the bomb cutter except we lost everything

We haven't lost anything yet fwiw.

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The south move (don't want to use the word "trend" ) does nothing for my area. Will still be rain. I would rather this be north and give you guys snow, and me much less rain! I hate rain and I am so tired of wiping my pooches feet and cleaning floors!! I would be even happy with brutal cold and dry right now. At least my mud would be "FROZEN"!! 

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To say the latest NAM runs (06Z) are unenthusiastic for Sat's storm would be an understatement. Pretty much confined to S VA and south.
eta: GFS is slightly north and gets into central VA.
What's worse is its weaker(the euro). Even if it went north its lost alot of juice
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44 minutes ago, Ji said:
46 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:
To say the latest NAM runs (06Z) are unenthusiastic for Sat's storm would be an understatement. Pretty much confined to S VA and south.
eta: GFS is slightly north and gets into central VA.

What's worse is its weaker(the euro). Even if it went north its lost alot of juice

Its evolved to a weak POS. Rather it not do anything. I have stuff to do outside if the weather is decent.

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With only 24 hours to go, I think it's time to pull the plug on tomorrow's storm.  It's weaker and farther south on most models.  Sunday, if we get any frozen precipitation, will change to rain by later in the day so hopefully it will be light and insignificant.  Most models still have the Tuesday storm alive but the GFS has basically lost it over the past 3 runs.  It's not until later on Wednesday do they show anything and that's just your basic, Mid-Atlantic special- cold rain.   Then, a couple of more chances of rain to end the week.  On a brighter note, the GFS is still showing a coastal storm on the 2nd of March.  :rolleyes:

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