Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,501
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ChicagoGuy
    Newest Member
    ChicagoGuy
    Joined

PD Weekend 2019 Storm Threats


WxUSAF
 Share

Recommended Posts

15 minutes ago, Danajames said:

Interesting how the 1800 GFS run has pretty much lost the Tuesday event.  But it will be a close call on Saturday and as of right now, it looks like the winners will once again be D.C., northern and central VA and southern MD.   Not convinced it will be cold enough for all snow, even though the forcing will be stronger in certain areas of VA. which may lead to rain changing to snow.  Whoever gets the snow, I can't see anymore than 1-3" at most since surface temperatures on Saturday will be pretty marginal for accumulation.  Sunday still looks like a rain event for the most part with the thermal profiles not being very supportive of snow.   Maybe near the PA line can see more of a mix and some minor accumulation.  Saturday still looks to be the most interesting since a shift north is not out of the question.  As for Tuesday, I hope the GFS is correct and we don't get anything because if we do, it will just be snow or a mix, changing to rain by later in the day. 

Let me know when your posts will be changing to less awful. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Take a break and come back in 2 weeks. Our last stand. My prediction tho- just as the western trough begins to progress east, the AO/NAO goes super positive, the trough retreats into N central Canada, and winter ends.

Dunno if your kidding but that’s kind of what the guidance is trending towards imo. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I see it too

So, we are supposed to believe the LR now when it shows a shutout pattern, but be intrigued by it the rest of 65% of the winter when it shows promise at 15 days?  All I am saying is that beyond 6-7 days, NWP has not performed well this year.  I will not give up based on the LR guidance now any more than I will believe it when it shows good things for mby.   I think it is a watch threats materialize/disappear inside of 6 days kind of year, at least for around here.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, WesternFringe said:

So, we are supposed to believe the LR now when it shows a shutout pattern, but be intrigued by it the rest of 65% of the winter when it shows promise at 15 days?  All I am saying is that beyond 6-7 days, NWP has not performed well this year.  I will not give up based on the LR guidance now any more than I will believe it when it shows good things for mby.   I think it is a watch threats materialize/disappear inside of 6 days kind of year, at least for around here.

So we’re supposed to discuss the LR in this thread? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

So, we are supposed to believe the LR now when it shows a shutout pattern, but be intrigued by it the rest of 65% of the winter when it shows promise at 15 days?  All I am saying is that beyond 6-7 days, NWP has not performed well this year.  I will not give up based on the LR guidance now any more than I will believe it when it shows good things for mby.   I think it is a watch threats materialize/disappear inside of 6 days kind of year, at least for around here.

You can believe what you want. Who said to give up?  We are simply discussing where the pattern may be heading based on the current guidance. Nothing is etched in stone. Goes without saying. I was messing with Ji a bit, but otherwise engaging in objective analysis with PSU.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said:

I’m guessing that the 4-5” strip from Hanover Clubtyvup thru the Northern Neck is a little coastal enhancement on 18z Euro. Like that it still shows the 2-4” around EZF.......and it did expand a little on North side too

A little more juice and a tick or two Norther and there could be warning level snow somewhere within 30 miles of DC.

  • Like 2
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

You can believe what you want. Who said to give up?  We are simply discussing where the pattern may be heading based on the current guidance. Nothing is etched in stone. Goes without saying. I was messing with Ji a bit, but otherwise engaging in objective analysis with PSU.

They obviously don’t want that. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

They obviously don’t want that. 

I love your objective analysis, it is one of the reasons this board is awesome.  My point remains why should we be encouraged by the the 10+ day good looking patterns while immediately discouraged by the same 10+ day bad looking patterns?   Neither has proven to be true with regard to ground truth snow this winter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...