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PD Weekend 2019 Storm Threats


WxUSAF
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Just now, losetoa6 said:

As expected Gefs looks much better for Saturday 

Thought the same thing in general for us northerners....Could be a little bit of a surprise event for DC and NE as well.  Latest op runs and ens seem to give the slp a little bit more of a NE trajectory instead of due E off the coast.  Maybe CAPE gets a late inning double off the top of the wall!

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

I know we are little close in for ensembles but.........I'd be lying if I said I didn't like it. Actually ..did you notice there like 3 members that amp this thing into the 990s :)

This is one of the few times that when you are excited I am too for anything but a south trend.  Unless this amps and h5 goes over DC of course.  I have to sweat temps more if its too amped so need the goldilocks track.   

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1 minute ago, snowdude said:

UKMET way south, NAM way south. GFS and CMC basically a “hit” and the EURO has consistently been a hit until it trended south last night. Again, some models are going to bust big time. 

Hasn't the UKMET been South at 48 hours out most of this winter? I mean in the 2/12-13 storm, it had EZF getting like 3-5" of snow at 48 hours and EZF got nothing close, same with a late January storm too, not saying that's the case here, just musing a bit I guess.......

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Just now, wawarriors4 said:

Hasn't the UKMET been South at 48 hours out most of this winter? I mean in the 2/12-13 storm, it had EZF getting like 3-5" of snow at 48 hours and EZF got nothing close, same with a late January storm too, not saying that's the case here, just musing a bit I guess.......

Definitely! UKMET hasn’t been good IMO this winter.

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3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I know we are little close in for ensembles but.........I'd be lying if I said I didn't like it. Actually ..did you notice there like 3 members that amp this thing into the 990s :)

I didnt...but you made me look. Ha!  Yea, the NW trend is pretty clear (once off the coast)....I know the caveats of ens this close in but think they can be somewhat useful for spotting red flags.  One thing I noticed for our backyards is the separation of clusters once the slp is in CVA along the NC boarder.  There is a nice cluster that traverse VA without dipping into NC....and ride off the coast around VA beach.  06z was not even close to portraying this....  

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Just now, Scraff said:

So if the 12z GFS is to be believed, all our beautiful Saturday snow (with a better north shift in the coming runs) will be washed away in the follow up threats. Just making sure I have it down until the King comes out. :rolleyes:

Or if the fv3 is to be believed we ride the boundary for the next week with chances at front end snow/mix with each wave...

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34 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I know we are little close in for ensembles but.........I'd be lying if I said I didn't like it. Actually ..did you notice there like 3 members that amp this thing into the 990s :)

I'm not feeling it for us.  Wish I was.  This was the GEFS from 18z yesterday....that was a look that had my attention.  This right here was a good look for our area

good.thumb.png.55509dbaa3d6fb787e730dda29640f60.png

This less so...this screams "fringed" with "some" snow but significant 4"+ snows staying south of us.  

notsogood.thumb.png.503512c21c412a5016c683ddd54aa7ac.png

Yea it could shift...but we are getting kinda close here... It's inside 48 hours, but more importantly the wave is taking mostly a west to east trajectory so the changes needed to get heavy snow up into our area would have to come pretty soon in the next run or two.  Once this wave is out in the central states its pretty much locked in what happens to the east imo.  I would be pretty excited if I still lived in northern VA or down towards Chill.  But I think north of 70 is probably looking at a "fringe" with 1-3" totals most likely or maybe even worse.  

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm not feeling it for us.  Wish I was.  This was the GEFS from 18z yesterday....that was a look that had my attention.  This right here was a good look for our area

good.thumb.png.55509dbaa3d6fb787e730dda29640f60.png

This less so...this screams "fringed" with "some" snow but significant 4"+ snows staying south of us.  

notsogood.thumb.png.503512c21c412a5016c683ddd54aa7ac.png

Yea it could shift...but we are getting kinda close here... It's inside 48 hours, but more importantly the wave is taking mostly a west to east trajectory so the changes needed to get heavy snow up into our area would have to come pretty soon in the next run or two.  Once this wave is out in the central states its pretty much locked in what happens to the east imo.  I would be pretty excited if I still lived in northern VA or down towards Chill.  But I think north of 70 is probably looking at a "fringe" with 1-3" totals most likely or maybe even worse.  

Where is that little violin emoji guy?  :lol:

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm not feeling it for us.  Wish I was.  This was the GEFS from 18z yesterday....that was a look that had my attention.  This right here was a good look for our area

good.thumb.png.55509dbaa3d6fb787e730dda29640f60.png

This less so...this screams "fringed" with "some" snow but significant 4"+ snows staying south of us.  

notsogood.thumb.png.503512c21c412a5016c683ddd54aa7ac.png

Yea it could shift...but we are getting kinda close here... It's inside 48 hours, but more importantly the wave is taking mostly a west to east trajectory so the changes needed to get heavy snow up into our area would have to come pretty soon in the next run or two.  Once this wave is out in the central states its pretty much locked in what happens to the east imo.  I would be pretty excited if I still lived in northern VA or down towards Chill.  But I think north of 70 is probably looking at a "fringe" with 1-3" totals most likely or maybe even worse.  

I feel like the sweet spot is going to be somewhere between Fredericksburg and MOCO. But it’s fun to track something that wasn’t a thing 3 days ago.

eta: and each run is going to tighten the envelope. I’m thinking it ends up a Montclair jackpot :D

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