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PD Weekend 2019 Storm Threats


WxUSAF
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3 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

12-9 gave me an inch of snow and it was modeled 48 hours out for PWC to get nada. The models struggle with the Northern stream and confluence. We can definitely fail but no need to throw in the towel until 12z tomorrow. It would be nice to see a North trend start by happy hour today

Yup. Not gonna sweat it til at least tomorrow night

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4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

No one gets snow this run except the southern mountains of VA and WV. Double edge sword. To get the cold air aloft we need squashes the precip. 

This is exactly what was being discussed in the AFD from Mount Holly yesterday evening. Delicate setup if you want snow out of this.

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3 minutes ago, LP08 said:

I know its way to close to be using the ensembles but to me, it looks like the majority of the GEFS are north leaning compared to the op.

 

 

GEFS Saturday.png

I know this is off topic a bit but where do you find the ind members on weather models?  Is it right in front of my face (most likely) but for the life of me I cant find em...

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In my experience ensembles are more expansive with precip sheilds.  I don't really think that looks to be north.  That said, as long as there are no major changes to the strength of the "storm", then I think most would agree that these things always tend to come north a bit as we approach tipoff.  If you are in any of the northern extent of the precip at this time, you shouldn't throw in the towel because many times that is a great place to be 2 days out.

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1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

This was really good post.  Seeing this way makes more sense vice just assuming the system is just weak sauce.  the coffee is just a strong in the cup but the steam is being blown off the top above the rim...we are the top above the rim

If this storm is the coffee, then this winter is crappy Maxwell House.

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I want to audible at the line of scrimmage before the 12z GFS comes out. Let’s hope for much stronger confluence and a big push south of the Saturday storm, that sets us up better for the Sunday night storm. Right now we are stuck in nomansland with getting a slightly southern slider and a mix for the Sunday night (and Tues) storm.

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Just now, dsnowman said:

I want to audible at the line of scrimmage before the 12z GFS comes out. Let’s hope for much stronger confluence and a big push south of the Saturday storm, that sets us up better for the Sunday night storm. Right now we are stuck in nomansland with getting a slightly southern slider and a mix for the Sunday night (and Tues) storm.

Adjusting hope for flakes for the promise of future flakes is folly.  

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