Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, wxextreme said: I would be apt to say these numbers are inflated due to inherit issues within the modeling dynamics. For one, the icing is (from my understanding) interpolated over time period and does not capture what happens during intermediate time steps. Not to mention, the upper air temperatures aloft have been in question as to how much warm air will be overrunning. Because the thermal soundings are in question, the ice accumulation rate forecasts will be questionable at best. I would expect these numbers to fall as modeling time intervals become more refined. For sure. Model is just pointing out where it is . I think it ends up N of there those as I can't by any appreciable icing at the coast occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, wx2fish said: ML fronto ftw Saved to the weenie folder with all of the other failed NAM images over the years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 27 minutes ago, wxextreme said: 18Z NAM is bringing more sleet over Northern MA, which is interesting. I'd be more apt to say with this profile that it would likely be switching back and forth. There will be some fine details needed to be worked out before I start making definitive yes all snow or mixing in my neck of the woods (north of Fitchburg, MA). We will be getting at least a few pingers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Saved to the weenie folder with all of the other failed NAM images over the years. Congrats on your 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Saved to the weenie folder with all of the other failed NAM images over the years. First glance i saw positive depth charge................. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 40 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah I agree. Any mid level fronto bands will Punch better snow growth too. I could see a wide swath of 12-18". 13-15:1 ratios on 1" QPF. But I bet any 700-850mb frontogenesis in NNE gets up to 20:1 ratios. Maybe during the snowburst it's 20:1, but less likely for the whole event. Since moving to Maine (46 years ago this coming Wednesday), I've measured exactly one storm of 10"+ that cracked the 20 mark, a low-wind featherbomb in Dec. 1981 (thus Ft. Kent) that produced 15.5" from just 0.68" LE, ratio 22.8. Next highest was 18.3 from a similar storm when I lived in Gardiner, 13.9" from 0.76" LE in early Feb. 1993. (Lesser storms are different. I've twice gotten 4.5" of freaky flakes from 0.10" LE, once in BGR and once in Gardiner.) Like the little BN hook on that 12/1-forward temp map, as it reaches my place where I'm -2 compared to my 21-year average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Ran the 18Z NAM from by basement. Albany Weenies approve. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You're gonna get a total paint peeler in Tolland...after maybe 6" of snow. Bulletproof pack though. I agree but I think the warmth aloft wins out for enough time for extended zr. These never go the opposite way so close in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Saved to the weenie folder with all of the other failed NAM images over the years. Bring this baby a bit more south by 25 miles the joy of getting under 700 mb FGEN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 It really is incredible to see the hours of sleet on the NAM. Never happens like that at Logan. So this one will be a test (in terms of it actually occurring) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Saved to the weenie folder with all of the other failed NAM images over the years. Road trip to Fredricton, NB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 24 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Stop. Collaborate and listen. Ice is on a brand new mission. January 1953 redux for NNJ? (We lost power for 6 days, had 6" cracked ice in our driveway after the ice fell off the trees.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxextreme Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I have been watching the 18Z HRRR run, from first glance, it seems to be keeping temps slightly cooler than the previous GFS and NAM run (atleast up to 6Z). Will be watching the HRRR runs extremely close now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, wxextreme said: I have been watching the 18Z HRRR run, from first glance, it seems to be keeping temps slightly cooler than the previous GFS and NAM run (atleast up to 6Z). Will be watching the HRRR runs extremely close now! HRRR is useless at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: Saved to the weenie folder with all of the other failed NAM images over the years. Fredericton flattener. Even the standard 1/3 adjustment leaves them with over 60 cm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I agree but I think the warmth aloft wins out for enough time for extended zr. These never go the opposite way so close in I've seen them trend colder when you have a high there...2/2/15 did and so did 2/5/14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: HRRR is useless at this range for temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I agree but I think the warmth aloft wins out for enough time for extended zr. These never go the opposite way so close in Yeah but you stay below freezing from like 925 to the surface the entire time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxextreme Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, sbos_wx said: HRRR is useless at this range If I went back to the beginning of this forum, I would believe we all would be looking at the Global models 5 days out, which I would argue is also equally as useless, but definitely worth the conversation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 ICON wetter again.. no se about thermals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Pete B just upped amounts from yesterday. I'm actually kind of surprised and not sure if that's a good thing or bad thing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, wxextreme said: If I went back to the beginning of this forum, I would believe we all would be looking at the Global models 5 days out, which I would argue is also equally as useless, but definitely worth the conversation. Each model by itself it useless if you use that logic. It's the understanding, experience of failure, and application of experience to your own interpretation of model consensus that is paramount. Ask yourself what model carries water at what stage. The HRRR is best used for short term <8hr nowcasting. And even then it can be quite inaccurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6z Sunday on 18z NAM 3k: BOS is -11C (!) at 850mb while Taunton is +3C. Boston never gets below -6c at 950mb. Would never be any type of rain. That's purely snow and then nasty sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I've seen them trend colder when you have a high there...2/2/15 did and so did 2/5/14. 3-4” sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 So it’s interesting that for days and days it’s been a great front ender for all off the cape and sleet on most of EMA. I’m thinking BOS pulls 6-10 when it’s all done but since Ray gets my measurement..not sure if it’s any different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 11 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Yeah but you stay below freezing from like 925 to the surface the entire time. I’m basically buying Euro . If it’s tio warm then all ping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3k nam a little cooler for mby.. pushes close to 10" then sleet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Bostonseminole said: 3k nam a little cooler for mby.. pushes close to 10" then sleet.. Check out how cold it is at 850mb for you though. It literally hovers -1c to +1c from BOS to Newburyport. A small change could mean a big bust in that area. Or a bigger fart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The RGEM looks south again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: The RGEM looks south again. ...isn’t it the n most outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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