CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I'd side with your logic. There are a couple mitigating factors in my mind. There is the background "winter" that we have been having in SNE that's been warmer then normal and we also don't have any snowpack to speak of in SNE which would have helped facilitate the SLP sliding along that denseer cold. You have a dense cold airmass. Even if we had snow, it won’t effect things. That high is good enough to squeeze shit south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Coastal front subby zone from here to interior SW ME? What causes that? Is that downsloping off the Whites? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: You have a sense cold airmass. Even if we had snow, it won’t effect things. That high is good enough to squeeze shit south. So you don't think having a snowpack would impact the surface track path at all or just minimally? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 13 minutes ago, powderfreak said: This snow map is the same one it's shown for like 4 days now. Euro does love the mid-level fronto up this way though. I like the fact that the QPF/snow totals ...even where it's unperturbed by warm bullshit aloft ... is now half of what it was three days ago. That cutting back on QPF was mentioned by ... eh hm, some of us, as concomitant with open waves in a progressive/compressed medium. That said, perhaps obfuscated by the fact that this system could and probably will ... still be anomalously rich, regardless. So a couple of things happening there... Yes correction; yes anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: Coastal front subby zone from here to interior SW ME? Exhaust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I'm not sure if it's fortunate that I am stuck in Ayer for this event or not...possibly see a foot in this area around Rt2, I think around 6-8" with some PL IMBY, and 10-12 here around the Rt2/495 area, with perhaps a brief change, then back to snow as it departs..your thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The ECWMF with ~0.8" of freezing rain in Hartford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Still 3 - 4 and some ice. meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, CT Rain said: The ECWMF with ~0.8" of freezing rain in Hartford. That would be bad with the wind coming on the back side of this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 16 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I'd side with your logic. There are a couple mitigating factors in my mind. There is the background "winter" that we have been having in SNE that's been warmer then normal and we also don't have any snowpack to speak of in SNE which would have helped facilitate the SLP sliding along that denseer cold. First of all, it hasn't been that warm. Secondly, the fact that we have had next to no snow, and nothing for over two months, is a nod in favor of more snow from here on out...all else being equal. Especially considering ENSO.. Finally, snowpack is nice, but a strong, ideally placed nascent +pp of arctic origin should also provide the requisite resistance to preclude inland tracks. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Cold Miser said: Still 3 - 4 and some ice. meh. this isn't going to be one to remember unless the big icing comes to fruition and we got a lot of trees/powerlines down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: The ECWMF with ~0.8" of freezing rain in Hartford. Is that a product distribution or are we inferring that 'approximation' I'm asking because after front/wall snow burst... this thing's likely to be haulin' ass and I wonder if there's enough QPF for that much accretion - keeping in mind, the timing on change over is probably correct-able longer. ... which might mitigate further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Is that a product distribution or are we inferring that 'approximation' I'm asking because after front/wall snow burst... this thing's likely to be haulin' ass and I wonder if there's enough QPF for that much accretion - keeping in mind, the timing on change over is probably correct-able toward protracted. ... which might mitigate further. It's precipitation falling as ZR. You could lose half of it of course to run off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: So you don't think having a snowpack would impact the surface track path at all or just minimally? Honestly no. The Synoptics are what really drives the bus. It’s january too where the lack of snowpack really won’t hurt that much. I suppose I can’t say it won’t have zero impact, but I honestly think no snowpack doesn’t hurt. I mean as snow falls and accumulates you are also adverting in colder air. So there is that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 22 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I’m still slightly amazed it’s gonna snow more than an inch? how long has it been in SNE ....55 days ...60 days lmao 60 days and counting in Methuen. It's been a Chris Davis type of winter so far. One K after another. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 24 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I'd side with your logic. There are a couple mitigating factors in my mind. There is the background "winter" that we have been having in SNE that's been warmer then normal and we also don't have any snowpack to speak of in SNE which would have helped facilitate the SLP sliding along that denseer cold. Are we really having a warmer than normal winter? We definitely have less snow, but I attribute that to $hit pattern/bad luck than above normal temps... I remember warmer winters where we have had more snow by this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 looks like EURO gives me about 8" of snow then hours of sleet.. then maybe an 1" to close it.. so maybe 8-10" is a good forecast for this area.. sticking with that from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: First of all, it hasn't been that warm. Secondly, the fact that we have had next to no snow, and nothing for over two months, is a nod in favor of more snow from here on out...all else being equal. Especially considering ENSO.. Finally, snowpack is nice, but a strong, ideally placed nascent +pp of arctic origin should also provide the requisite resistance to preclude inland tracks. Going in to today Bos was +3,5 for the month. And +2.6 for Dec. And as Eric Fisher pointed out there have been only 4 days since mid Jan last year that the temp has been under 30 for a high in Boston. It hasn't been exactly cold either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: Are we really having a warmer than normal winter? We definitely have less snow, but I attribute that to $hit pattern/bad luck than above normal temps... I remember warmer winters where we have had more snow by this point. It's warmer than normal so far, but not by a lot. ORH was +1.6 in December and is +1.7 so far in January (and that will fall considerably, below normal month is very likely) You are correct, the unfortunate chaos in the pattern has cost us the snow much more than temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just to poke the hornets here ... I almost think that the base-line is above normal do to incredible hockey stick GW that no one in here admits is really and happening because it may admit to cutting some day into snow chances for their grandkids... haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: First of all, it hasn't been that warm. Secondly, the fact that we have had next to no snow, and nothing for over two months, is a nod in favor of more snow from here on out...all else being equal. Especially considering ENSO.. Finally, snowpack is nice, but a strong, ideally placed nascent +pp of arctic origin should also provide the requisite resistance to preclude inland tracks. Thanks for the response. The last 2 months(60 days) have averaged 0-2F above normal, so I'll concede that my point was not more concise when I said "warm". I meant relative to climo. I agree that we are at peak climo for snow for the next 30 days so you'd think that kicks in at some point. I'm just not sure this year is behaving like your typical weak ENSO state To the last point, I'm talking track deviations of 20-30 miles at most wrt to snow pack influences. Probably not even measurable to the impacts of the pressing high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Just to poke the hornets here ... I almost think that the base-line is above normal do to incredible hockey stick GW that no one in here admits is really and happening because it may admit to cutting some day into snow chances for their grandkids... haha I long ago accepted that GW is happening. It is near impossible to not accept it. JB is one of the last remaining deniers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Just to poke the hornets here ... I almost think that the base-line is above normal do to incredible hockey stick GW that no one in here admits is really and happening because it may admit to cutting some day into snow chances for their grandkids... haha All joking aside, I'm 40 and I feel that my adult life has been much snowier than my childhood ever was. And I've been interested in weather since a very young age. If the cause is cyclical, or GW, there's definitely been a difference in the last 20 years, especially with the number bigger storms of 12+... Of course this observation is anecdotal and judged by my location in RI... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 14 minutes ago, CT Rain said: It's precipitation falling as ZR. You could lose half of it of course to run off. Yeah I guess I was asking and commenting simultaneously.. heh.. So it sound interpretive but it's probably obvious/not a hard interpretation. Got it. As to the accretion part of that... right - that's also mitigating. I just don't envy y'all that gotta go in front of hundreds of thousands of assholes that can't wait to point things out when things don't go right... during a scenario that is guaranteed not to for any number of them. good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 This winter blows! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxextreme Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's warmer than normal so far, but not by a lot. ORH was +1.6 in December and is +1.7 so far in January (and that will fall considerably, below normal month is very likely) You are correct, the unfortunate chaos in the pattern has cost us the snow much more than temps. The Northeast Regional Climate Center released this graphic earlier this month showing the Dec 1 - Jan 15 departures from normal showing a slight deviation from normal temperatures. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I like the fact that the QPF/snow totals ...even where it's unperturbed by warm bullshit aloft ... is now half of what it was three days ago. That cutting back on QPF was mentioned by ... eh hm, some of us, as concomitant with open waves in a progressive/compressed medium. That said, perhaps obfuscated by the fact that this system could and probably will ... still be anomalously rich, regardless. So a couple of things happening there... Yes correction; yes anomaly. I am just happy it is still showing 4 to 5 along the SW CT coast WEST of HVN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: All joking aside, I'm 40 and I feel that my adult life has been much snowier than my childhood ever was. And I've been interested in weather since a very young age. If the cause is cyclical, or GW, there's definitely been a difference in the last 20 years, especially with the number bigger storms of 12+... Of course this observation is anecdotal and judged by my location in RI... You would not be mistaken with that feel - it is empirical over about the last four decades to be just that. I believe the top five snowiest winters of all time have been sprayed along the last 30 years and most winters have been above the 100 years mean in that range. Will is the stat king with seasonal snow variance so .. Will? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said: This winter blows! Grade F to date. We'll see what the rest of the winter has in store for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Just to poke the hornets here ... I almost think that the base-line is above normal do to incredible hockey stick GW that no one in here admits is really and happening because it may admit to cutting some day into snow chances for their grandkids... haha I'd be surprised if the majority here were climate deniers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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